Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) The weekend lapse may have inhibited the usual deep and day-long pullback allowed by Friday's gap-and-go setup. Sunday night's retest of Friday's 3210.50 high did react down to 3193.50 through Monday's opening hour, but still held several points positive and never taking RSIs oversold. Putting into play an offsetting test of the morning's 3177.00 bias-down signal didn't prevent recovering back to overnight highs before noon. And the afternoon no-bias window didn't prevent no-bias trending above the 3211.00 bias-up signal. Both 3177.00 and 3211.00 become unfinished business, added to the list as the rally extends higher with limited correction or delay. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Choppy, flat-to-lower ranging worked its way down to 3217.00 before midnight. Its recovery to within 1 tick of Monday's high at 3231.00 started turning back down one hour before Europe's opens. The market knew something bigger was on its way, and 4 hours later Monday's low was being probed down to 3190.00. The low is consolidating slide 41-point slide. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) RSIs during yesterday morning's post-open dip ever got oversold to launch a recovery, so last night's decline may be the consequence of having rallied yesterday prematurely. Extending the rally also didn't exploit the opportunity for a refueling dip that had been offered by Friday's gap-and-go setup. While Monday's close above 3211.00 does signal that the rally's next higher target at 3288.00 is in-play, Tuesday must also close above 3211.00 to confirm. This seemed a little dubious at yesterday's close, which had the feel of being either blow-off or premature, with defensive posturing likely ahead of tomorrow's FOMC events. And Monday's new recovery high close fulfilled the higher attractions of unfinished business. I had suggested a possible catalyst for pullback could be this morning's post-open JOLTS report (its jobs openings data are sort of a cross-check against Friday's controversial Payrolls report, which is ripe for dissent). Last night's decline changes that dynamic, so a reversal catalyst could have a positive effect -- or accelerate the decline lower. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3198.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3202.50 bias-down target to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 3211.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 3218.25 bias-down signal.

And session-long decline triggered. I knew there was something fishy about yesterday morning. Its post-open slide to 3193.50 never shook 1-min RSI off of its flatlining above oversold territory. That trending usually doesn't end until lower lows take RSI oversold, and then to diverge positively on another lower low. So, already rallying well before noon seemed premature. Or impatient, like the afternoon's no-bias trending, and ticking higher and higher into the new recovery high close at 3231.25. Overly optimistic ahead of this morning's JOLTS comparison to Friday's controversial Payrolls report, or just ordinary defensive posturing into the 2-day FOMC meeting.

Fishy. Not Wild Alaska salmon fishy, but Ozark bottom-feeding catfish fishy. Last night's decline -- now duplicated, maintained, or extended as is likely with legs originating at Europe's opens -- makes sense of yesterday's premature, impatient, overly optimistic rally.

Now the open has triggered a session-long decline by following yesterday's uptrending close with a gap down under the 3206.50 afternoon bias environment low. The rejection suggests that each timing window today will probe its prior timing window's low. There's often one exception. If that's not this morning's bias environment, then the open's 3191.00 low will be probed before noon. If this morning is the exception, then the balance of the session will trend down. Any deviation would mean the setup failed, and that's when I'll entertain a buy signal. I described yesterday in the chaRTroom there was no bullish reason to retrace the afternoon's breakout from 3206.50. Now it is resistance, but simply probing under yesterday morning's low seems a miserly consequence for the interim rally's failure. Yesterday morning's unfinished business at 3177.00 is a likely objective, if not also 3138.00.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3215.50 3213.50 ...would target 3227.25 3225.25 Bias-down: under 3200.00 3198.00 ...would target 3190.00 3188.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

And session-long decline invalidated. This morning's bias environment was greeted at a fresh post-open low of 3090.75, which was a sell signal if triggered. The bias window never even pierced it, so that would have to be the exception for a session-long decline. But the noon hour didn't probe a prior low either. Since only one window may be an exception, two windows invalidates the session-long decline setup. Entering the afternoon bias environment above the morning's 3214.75 high can the bearish setup to be bullish. I can't give that too much credibility, since that was done after the 1:20-1:30 timing window, not before it. But it was done, now testing 3219.50. Meanwhile, the 3213.50 afternoon bias-up signal just triggered late, so its 3225.25 bias-up target is in-play. Otherwise valid lower objectives are being absorbed by late buying pressure. It isn't bearish. And it's not not bullish. But it's certainly not optimal. Yesterday morning's abbreviated weakness and its ultimate resolution back down may still be instructive. Impatient buying is weak-handed, allowed its temporary room by patient stronger-handed sellers. Ultimately, that's distribution, which can be dangerous ahead of tomorrow's FOMC events.

Not necessarily bearish, but this week has been rich with non-bullish behavior. Tuesday's open was greeted back down at Monday's 3200.00 open, fully retracing the interim intraday rally to 3231.00, that had trended up through Monday's close. Gapping down under Monday's afternoon 3206.50 low triggered a session-long decline setup, but no timing window probed a prior window's low. The 3218.50 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retracement was tested and retested up to 3221.00 before the last half-hour fell back to 3202.00 through the close. Monday's close above 3211.00 was not confirmed. Tuesday was the second consecutive bearish setup to be absorbed prematurely. Optimism can produce bounces. But optimism isn't necessarily bullish when it originates from an unstable base. Despite rallying 38 points off the opening lows, Monday's morning and afternoon premature rallies were retraced overnight back down through Monday's low to 3190.00. Now Tuesday's opening range has been retraced after rallying intraday 30 points off the morning low. Was retracing Tuesday afternoon's rally sufficient consequence for rallying prematurely? The morning low wasn't retraced, and that had already seemed insufficient consequence for Monday's premature rally. Perhaps this sideways ranging schizophrenia can be dismissed as inhibition ahead of Wednesday's FOMC events, but it does reflect underlying turmoil. There being only impatient, ill-timed rallies this week suggests that buyers are weaker-handed. Meanwhile, patient stronger hands are distributing into the doomed rally attempts. That said, greeting FOMC from within a multi-session range tends not to trend durably in either direction through the close. So, intraday probing in either direction is likely to settle back within this week's range, or at least retrace it before extending. And there's no unfinished business above, including no requirement to test 3288.00 before reversing down. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3213.50 3211.50 ...would target 3225.50 3223.50 Bias-down: under 3199.50 3197.50 ...would target 3185.25 3183.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-UP SIGNAL TESTED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.