Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Overnight action had finally broken lower to probe 4 points under Tuesday's low to 2874.25. But recovering into Wednesday's open was rewarded by blipping-up at the open to attack 2890.00. Its retest developed a little slower, but not much slower, before returning to 2874.25. The balance of the session fluctuated around Tuesday's 2879.25 low, as it had done overnight, closing at 2881.00. RSIs had avoided oversold territory intraday, so a rally was likely to fail. Overnight action's new info... A bounce into early Globex found the sellers that the lower intraday range could not. And they were hiding at the 2888.00 false break objective I had described in the Market Wrap. Consolidating there suddenly collapsed 20 points down to 2867.25, testing the false break's counterpart I had also described. Its reaction essentially recovered to unchanged by midnight. Another shallower probe under yesterday's low also recovered to unchanged by Europe's opens. That's where the story flipped -- by surging back up to and through the earlier Globex high, and then to and through yesterday morning's blip-up high, probing 2892.00-2894.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) [ALL PRICES QUOTED TODAY ARE BASIS JUN*] Last night's price action already portrayed most of what was described in the last paragraph of yesterday's Market Wrap: "The longer that sideways ranging doesn’t resolve, the likelier that its first resolution attempt is false. A false break higher has room up to 2888.00 [the Globex high] before suggesting something more substantial is underway, even if only temporary. Fresh lows could test 2869.25 [pierced by 2 points] while still being tethered to Wednesday’s narrow range." Most if not all of that was anticipated to develop intraday. That includes the "even wider range of noise at 2863.00-2894.00" whose upper-end was just attacked. If 2894.00 does hold the recovery, and also launches another downleg, then the next lower objective is at 2863.00-2864.00. Meanwhile, both an Isolation setup and a Globex-flip setup are forming. Both are bullish if triggered, bearish if not. And both are described in detail in this morning's Market Tour. [*Today the front month rolls forward -- at Thursday's open, one week prior to monthly expiration. With a move underway into rollover, my preference is usually to maintain coverage. Sep is trading at a 4-point premium to Jun, but all prices quoted today will be basis Jun.] First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2894.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2892.00 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2887.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2885.25 bias-up signal at 10:15.

After overnight tests of all bias parameters. The overnight test of the 2868.50 bias-down target had recovered to test not only the 2892.00 bias-up target, but also to test 2894.00 by 2 ticks. Ranging sideways into the open then formed a Head & Shoulders. The H&S pattern is generally referred to as a reversal pattern, but it often extends the trend to a fresh extreme before reversing. That was this morning's resolution, as the opening 15 minutes of volatility trended up to 2896.50. At this point, the bullish Globex-flip setup is confirmed for having exited the open above the 2888.50 earlier Globex high. Nevertheless, reacting down aggressively touched the 2885.25 bias-up signal as support. It held, and it was recovered in time to trigger a clean bias-up. Its 2892.00 bias-up target has been met again up to 2893.00. Still being a bias-up environment, its 2885.25 bias-up signal should define the window's lower-end if tested. It's now being probed down to 2882.75. Back above 2889.50 would start to signal the pullback was done and the overnight rally was resuming. Otherwise, natural support lies below at yesterday's 2881.00 close. Holding its test would be optimal to maintain the bullish Isolation setup, which must at least avoid piercing yesterday's 2875.25 low.

All of the bullish setups -- bias-up (fulfilled), Globex-flip (confirmed), Isolation (qualifying) -- reflect optimistic behavior. That sponsorship gets a benefit of the doubt for having shaped price action into these highly-reliable patterns. Closing negative today (let alone not recovering 2892.00-2894.00) would start to undermine this optimism, and the optimists, which would become very bearish very quickly as weekend illiquidity approached.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2892.25 2893.00 ...would target 2899.00 2899.75 Bias-down: under 2883.50 2884.25 ...would target 2876.75 2877.50 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Wash, rinse, run out of shampoo. The post-open drop back to the morning's bias-up signal held its support, and triggered. Retesting its bias-up target triggered another deeper drop, which the morning's bias-up signal also held as support. Fluctuation through 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the noon hour had recovered noon's print, after a dip had retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back to session lows. That's one of several tactics I apply to measure strong-handed sponsorship. And sellers didn't measure up. Upside was likely to resume. Which it did, once again thoroughly testing 2892.00-2894.00. Then bias-up was still being tested to trigger noN-bias, which is free to extend higher, lower, or just to range sideways. Currently it's reacting down. Rejecting the bullish setups would still be very bearish. Rejecting the bullish setups is running out of time. Probing under 2886.00 could start a deeper drop, but continuing to defend positive territory soon starts inhibiting sellers as much as it starts attracting buyers.

[COVERAGE ROLLS FORWARD NOW TO SEP, WHICH TRADES AT A 4-POINT PREMIUM TO JUN]... Multiple bullish setups developed pre-open and post-open Thursday. Both the pre-open Globex-flip and Isolation setups qualified, and it's premature to judge their influence. But the post-open bias-up signal quickly fulfilled its target. And two intraday probes above 2896.00-2898.00 [2892.00-2894.00 basis Jun] were reversed to ultimately close below the critical range -- the cash session did close IN the range at 2897.00 [2893.00 basis Jun], but thanks to a surge that hadn't yet begun within 3 minutes of the cash session close. Add to the setups that the overnight 3-day low's rejection did not produce a trending session. So, where are the reinforcements? Strong-handed buyers may have formed the bullish patterns, but stronger-handed sellers won't hesitate to exploit their hesitation. Buyers gained no traction for their efforts, so extending any higher should begin aggressively Thursday. Despite its delay, the minimum reward to resuming the rally is to retrace Tuesday's recent 2915.50 high [2911.50 basis Jun]. Unless that's isolated overnight or intraday, the next higher objective would be 2932.00 [2928.00 basis Jun]. Meanwhile, any initial weakness Thursday would be likely to extend down. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2897.75 2902.00 ...would target 2906.00 2910.25 Bias-down: under 2884.00 2888.50 ...would target 2878.00 2882.50 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.