Day Trading Signals and Strategy - 06-24-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Tuesday''s shallow gap up extended too late to gain traction. Its rejection from 2120.25 fell to 2111.25. Isolating the fresh lows to the noon hour reflected weak-handed sellers. In fact, the afternoon''s buyers gained traction for their efforts, exiting the bias environment above the noon hour''s high and entering the final hour even higher. The cash session''s close tested 2117.50. The one caveat was the relatively narrow intraday range undermining the traction, and needing to hold above 2113.50.

Overnight action''s new info...
Blipping-up to 2118.50 at the Globex open was the bounce''s peak. Trending back down touched 2113.50 before bouncing again to 2117.50 through Europe''s opens. Retracing that bounce found an air pocket under 2113.50 that plunged to 2108.50. Its reaction up to 2113.50 is now being retested.

If, then...
The traction gained by yesterday afternoon''s bounce can still be rewarded during this morning''s bias. It depends upon recovering back above relevant support through a relevant timing window. That''s where 2113.50 comes in, especially now that it has been probed below, and probed so substantially. The overnight low essentially held a test of this morning''s 2108.25 bias-down target. Avoiding its repeat, or at least dispensing with it quickly, should resume yesterday afternoon''s recovery in a giant proportion that is still targeting new highs. Otherwise, still testing yesterday''s lows -- i.e. triggering bias-down -- could shut the door to new highs until next week.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2115.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2113.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2110.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Consolidation around support finally bounces.

The overnight probe under the 2113.50 bias-down signal wasn''t repeated before the open. And the pre-open recovery back up to 2113.50 wasn''t extended.

2113.50 wasn''t even probed until after the open, and then only momentarily. The first hour''s 2111.00-2115.00 range was centered around 2113.50, narrowing through the 10:15 bias timing window to invoke the grace period..

Until...

With only seconds remaining, a surge began extending to 2117.50. A bias signal triggered, and it wasn''t bias-down. This is a late no-bias environment. Having held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the 2120.75 bias-up signal is in-play.

2117.50 is the last relative overnight high, so this resistance may be only obligatory, i.e. temporary. Meanwhile, 2117.50 is the 3-minute high to a buy signal triggered above 2114.25, when initial sponsorship often fades. A fresh high would confirm momentum has reversed up.

Exiting the bias environment back under 2113.50 would be less bearish than having triggered bias-down earlier. But it wouldn''t be bullish.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2122.50
2114.25
...would target 2128.25
2120.25
Bias-down: under 2116.25
2108.25
...would target 21112.25
2103.00
Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
After Tuesday''s gap down went on to only range sideways intraday, not gapping down Wednesday made the decline unlikely to extend. And, therefore, unlikely to confirm Tuesday''s break. Bounce potential to 1.1250-1.1275 can be probed intraday, but must hold through the close to maintain the near-term downward momentum.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Tuesday''s confirmation of Monday''s breakout already fulfilled its minimum third lower close Wednesday. Bouncing from 1168.00 closed under the week-old prior low to trigger another pattern whose objective is 1162.00, while the bigger picture still targets 1158.50.

Silver Jul Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
As was expected, Wednesday avoided a lower close that would have confirmed Tuesday''s breakout. That doesn''t reverse the trend up, nor does it preclude probing lower lows, but it helps to avoid participating in Gold''s deeper decline.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up Wednesday helped to confirm that Tuesday''s late dip back toward 148-20 was only noise. Reacting down was recovered into the afternoon, back above Monday''s 149-24 close to start signaling the downleg from Friday''s high had ended. Closing back above 150-08 would signal another rally leg underway.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Tuesday night''s fresh high testing 61.55 was retraced to test 60.70 support into Wednesday''s open. Wednesday morning''s bounce back to 61.50 was reversed down to fresh lows at 59.80. Closing under 60.70 must be recovered by noon Thursday to maintain the potential upside momentum.

Natural Gas Jul Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Flat-to-higher ranging Wednesday tested the 2.77 buy signal but didn''t trigger it, greeting Thursday''s EIA report from a position of weakness. Closing Thursday above 2.77 -- and preferably also above 2.83 -- would be the minimum requirement to suggest momentum is reversing up.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2113.75
2105.75
...would target 2118.50
2110.50
Bias-down: under 2105.50
2097.50
...would target 2099.50
2091.50
Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.