Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday night's surge reached 2939.00, where exiting the open any higher would have formed a "session-long rally." It wasn't maintained long enough for the open to reject it, where its bullish effect would have become equally bearish. But the rally failed another attempt to regain control, rejecting both bias-up parameters and putting into play offsetting tests of both 2917.75 and 2911.75 bias-down parameters. Each of the failed surges had retraced back down to the earlier overnight range's 2925.25 upper-end. Its support finally started breaking lower during the afternoon bias environment. Only the initial 2917.75 objective was fulfilled intraday, but its bounce was retraced entirely into the close. Overnight action's new info... What a night. Initially blipping-down to an immediate fresh low at 2914.50, the market reversed up sharply to 2933.50 through Europe's opens. That was derailed by reaction to a China trade headline, collapsing down to 2918.00. An hour-long bounce is now testing this morning's 2924.50 bias-up signal as resistance. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Despite having left outstanding the 2911.75 objective, trending down into yesterday's close created an alternative bullish resolution. It should sound familiar: Gapping up above yesterday's 2927.00-2931.00 highs could have formed a "session-long rally" setup. Yesterday's open was also greeted by a failed overnight rally's attempt to form the same setup. And again, the excessive optimism was dashed before its failure could be so bearish from a contrarian perspective. Still, buyers have been rebuffed twice consecutively, making them weak-handed, so fresh lows remain likely. Unless strong-handed buyers somehow compensate this morning, potential below 2911.75 down to 2902.50-2906.00 and 2896.00-2898.00 remains alive. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2927.25 would be likely to trigger the 2924.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2920.75 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

And the target is already retested. The overnight rally's collapse from 2933.50 to 2918.00 had been recovered up to the 2924.50 bias-up signal when we discussed the Market Tour. The open was greeted higher at 2927.50. The first half-hour extended even higher to attack 2933.00.

2930.75's bias-up target was being probed. Reacting down to 2926.50 avoided renewing the bias-up signal. Bias-up was triggered nevertheless, making a retest of the 2930.75 bias-up target likely. Which has now been done.

Still being a bias-up environment, the rally can extend. Back above 2931.50 would start to signal a bigger rally underway, possibly marginalizing sellers until late afternoon. Meanwhile, back under 2927.25 (being tested now) could resume the decline. Resuming the decline is likelier, already having neutralized the only upside requirement, and still having "unfinished business" below at 2911.75. But downside should be defined by the 2924.50 bias-up signal until the bias environment begins lapsing. So, getting too aggressive too quickly would risk trapping shorts to squeeze them for a rally.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2924.00 2928.00 ...would target 2930.00 2934.00 Bias-down: under 2917.00 2921.25 ...would target 2911.75 2916.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Post-open plunge recovers, but doesn't yet extend. The first half-hour's attack on 2933.00 was unable to hold above the morning's bias-up target, so the bias-up wasn't renewed. Neither was it rejected, so its 2924.50 bias-up signal needed to define the window's lower-end if tested. Which it was, in reaction to a China trade headline, down to 2922.00 But no lower. And now the noon hour has recovered to attack the morning's high. But no higher. This afternoon's no-bias has triggered. That was more than enough to trigger the 2928.00 bias-up. The late-morning collapse never extended lower, and it hasn't been retested despite RSIs being oversold. That is an anchor, so rallying into the noon hour has come from a position of weakness and should be retraced. Meanwhile, this afternoon's 2934.00 bias-up signal is being attacked. It's too late to trigger, and back under 2930.75 would start to signal momentum reversing down. Extending higher after the bias environment lapses could test 2939.00. Meanwhile, this afternoon's 2934.00 bias-up target is in-play. It can be neutralized within 3 ticks without becoming "unfinished business" above. Back under 2930.75 would start to signal momentum reversing down, limited to testing the 2928.00 bias-up signal as support until the bias window begins lapsing. Extending higher could test 2939.00.

Thursday's intraday range was relatively narrow. Its 2926.00 open initially extended to attack 2933.00, but that was soon retraced. The morning bias environment exit probed the open by 4 points down to 2922.00 in a knee-jerk reaction to a China trade headline. That also failed to extend, and was retraced to attack the morning's 2933.00 high. It was an inside day compared to Wednesday's 2917.00-2937.00 range, and even narrower than the overnight range which contained the only trending attempt. If the decline's hesitation can't launch a rally into the weekend, then it will seek stronger-handed buyers at lower levels. "Unfinished business" remains outstanding below at 2911.75, with potential down to 2896.00-2898.00. Next week's Independence Day holiday may have begun already limiting participation. Probing lower, no matter how aggressively, would be difficult to extend and vulnerable to recovery. Organically probing lower might have been done already, if not for two artificial catalysts -- the overnight and intraday China trade headlines. PROGRAMMING NOTE: I'm unavailable Monday afternoon. The chaRTroom will remain open. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2929.00 2933.25 ...would target 2934.75 2939.00 Bias-down: under 2920.00 2924.25 ...would target 2913.75 2918.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.