CHARTROOM LINK
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET) Another influence may soon be relevant: Today's new highs are attempting a breakout from a multi-session range. Assuming the breakout is maintained, tomorrow would be the confirmation session -- either closing higher to confirm the breakout, or not. Testing the room for noise above 2168.00 to 2175.00 without confirming the breakout would be bearish. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.Pre-Open Market Open - 6:45 AM
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Stock Market Opening Strategy - 10:53 AM
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The reaction down from 2167.25 greeted the open at 2163.75. Post-open action immediately plunged to test the 2160.75 bias-up signal as support, down to 2158.50.
That was the first half of the first 15 minutes of volatility.
1-minute RSI made a higher oversold while 3-minute RSI had been persistently oversold. But selling was done. An inverted Head & Shoulders formed, which then broke higher out of the first half-hour.
Bias-up triggered easily at 10:15. The 2165.75 bias-up target was attacked to within 2-3 ticks just minutes later. Reacting down into the EIA report has now recovered to probe above the overnight high. Last week's 2168.00 "new Globex trend extreme" is being attacked to within 1 tick.
Pessimism reflected by the post-open dip is largely rewarded by the reversal well above its origin. But only attacking last week's high -- which requires actually being touched intraday, and probably probed -- is new pessimism that has yet to be rewarded.
Extending higher could still reach 2175.00 before reversing down would be credible.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 12:04 PM
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Stock Market Mid-Day Trends - 1:57 PM
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Market Performance Signals - 4:26 PM
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Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 4:35 PM
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But Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Post-open dip recovers, and reverses.
WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2175.50
2169.25
...would target
2181.00
2175.00
Bias-down: under
2169.00
2163.00
...would target
2164.25
2158.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
All upside requirements fulfilled.
The 2168.00 new Globex trend extreme that had printed last week required being retested intraday. Its retest was likely also to touch 2169.00. This morning's 2169.75 high neutralized the attraction.
Overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the morning's high required a retest. The noon hour's dip to 2166.50 was recovered back up to 2169.75, and 3-minute RSI didn't recover to overbought. The retest is fulfilled.
Oversold RSIs at this morning's 2158.50 low developed during the open, so they don't require retest. It's still an attraction, but not required.
Wednesday's session was significant, fulfilling several items of "?unfinished business above" at 2163.00, 2163.75, and 2168.00.
They can still be probed up to 2171.25 and 2175.00. Meanwhile, a pullback has room down to 2163.00 before suggesting a bigger detour is underway.
Most important is whether Thursday will confirm Wednesday's breakout, which would essentially entrench the rally and inhibit a counter-trend decline.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2177.25
2171.25
...would target
2181.50
2175.50
Bias-down: under
2170.25
2164.25
...would target
2165.75
2159.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL
FAQ
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.