Day Trading Signals and Strategy - 07-20-2016

 But Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Tuesday's horrible narrow choppy range at least remained influenced by ongoing intraday testing of support, further confirming that sellers are weak-handed. Holding 2154.00 bias-down signal created a higher attraction at 2163.00 that would become unfinished business. A late surge extended to 2160.00 through the futures close. It was too late for its sponsorship to gain traction. Overnight action's new info... A pullback 2155.25 bottomed before midnight, and a rally resumed soon after. Europe's opens were greeted by surging to attack 2163.00. A quick correction soon resumed rallying again, extending so far to 2167.25. That's within 3 ticks of last week's Globex high, but already above all prior intraday highs. If, then... Not gaining traction yesterday made it necessary to gap up today if this morning intends to rally. Gapping up doesn't ensure rallying, but it gets a benefit of the doubt until disproved. A pullback has room to test 2161.50 before even threatening not to recover. Last week's 2168.00 "new Globex trend extreme" still requires intraday retest, and not just to within 3 ticks. Hesitating overnight within 3 ticks does reflect pessimism, which is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2168.75 would be likely to exceed the 2165.75 bias-up target through 10:15 and renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2158.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2160.75 bias-up signal.

Post-open dip recovers, and reverses. The reaction down from 2167.25 greeted the open at 2163.75. Post-open action immediately plunged to test the 2160.75 bias-up signal as support, down to 2158.50. That was the first half of the first 15 minutes of volatility. 1-minute RSI made a higher oversold while 3-minute RSI had been persistently oversold. But selling was done. An inverted Head & Shoulders formed, which then broke higher out of the first half-hour. Bias-up triggered easily at 10:15. The 2165.75 bias-up target was attacked to within 2-3 ticks just minutes later. Reacting down into the EIA report has now recovered to probe above the overnight high. Last week's 2168.00 "new Globex trend extreme" is being attacked to within 1 tick. Pessimism reflected by the post-open dip is largely rewarded by the reversal well above its origin. But only attacking last week's high -- which requires actually being touched intraday, and probably probed -- is new pessimism that has yet to be rewarded. Extending higher could still reach 2175.00 before reversing down would be credible.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2175.50 2169.25 ...would target  2181.00  2175.00 Bias-down: under  2169.00  2163.00 ...would target 2164.25  2158.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

All upside requirements fulfilled. The 2168.00 new Globex trend extreme that had printed last week required being retested intraday. Its retest was likely also to touch 2169.00. This morning's 2169.75 high neutralized the attraction. Overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the morning's high required a retest. The noon hour's dip to 2166.50 was recovered back up to 2169.75, and 3-minute RSI didn't recover to overbought. The retest is fulfilled. Oversold RSIs at this morning's 2158.50 low developed during the open, so they don't require retest. It's still an attraction, but not required.

Another influence may soon be relevant:

Today's new highs are attempting a breakout from a multi-session range. Assuming the breakout is maintained, tomorrow would be the confirmation session -- either closing higher to confirm the breakout, or not. Testing the room for noise above 2168.00 to 2175.00 without confirming the breakout would be bearish.

Meanwhile, this afternoon's retest of this morning's high will probably visit 2171.25. Back under 2166.25 would signal momentum already reversing down.

Wednesday's session was significant, fulfilling several items of "?unfinished business above" at 2163.00, 2163.75, and 2168.00. They can still be probed up to 2171.25 and 2175.00. Meanwhile, a pullback has room down to 2163.00 before suggesting a bigger detour is underway. Most important is whether Thursday  will confirm Wednesday's breakout, which would essentially entrench the rally and inhibit a counter-trend decline. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2177.25 2171.25 ...would target  2181.50  2175.50 Bias-down: under  2170.25  2164.25 ...would target 2165.75  2159.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.