Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Overnight ranging largely contained between 3198.50-3206.50 started trending higher up to 3219.00  within 60-90 minutes of Friday's open. This forms a too late to break setup that often retraces the overnight range. Being expiration, trending down through the open indicated at least the morning would trend down, if not also the entire session. An offsetting test of the bias-down signal was met down to 3196.50, and reacted up into the last half-hour to 3225.25. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sunday night's Globex open was flat with Friday's 3214.00 close. A 10-point bounce suddenly collapsed and extended to pierce Friday morning's 3196.50 low by 2 ticks. A 10-point bounce into midnight also reversed back down to touch Thursday morning's 3190.00 low. Another 10-point bounce through Europe's opens suddenly surged to within 2 ticks of Friday's 3214.00 close. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Not only did Friday afternoon stop short of fulfilling the afternoon setup that often extends the intraday uptrend, but both Friday and Thursday's lows have been retraced. Restrained optimism, pessimism, testing the range's lower-end... If sellers aren't exploiting this by trending down through the open, then the morning would likely gravitate back up to last week's 3226.00 highs, or higher. Opening back under Friday's lows would point down, but overnight action appears to have ended that attempt. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3204.75 would be likely to trigger the 3208.75 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 3214.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Invalidated. The overnight drop back through Friday's 3196.50 low to Thursday's 3190.25 low was recovered entirely to Friday's 3216.50 cash session close. Opening at Friday's 3214.00 futures settlement blipped-up to 3221.00 and then collapsed to attack 3205.00. The opening range was defined. The open's blip-up found resistance at the 3220.50 bias-up signal. The collapse found consolidated around the 3208.75 bias-down signal's support. That last test mattered most at the 10:15 bias timing window, when no-bias was triggered. Having more recently held a test of the bias-down signal, an offsetting test of the bias-up signal was put into play. If tested, either bias signal should define that end of the bias environment window. Exception: Probing above the bias-up signal during a no-bias environment is no-bias trending and doomed to failure. Unless that probe is decisive through 10:30. And it was, invalidating its resistance. It's too late to trigger bias-up, but I am expecting the 3233.00 bias-up target's test anyway.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3240.75 3231.00 ...would target 3252.75 3243.00 Bias-down: under 3231.50 3220.75 ...would target 3217.75 3208.00 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Now probing fresh highs. My likely objective for rallying this morning was 3233.00. The recovery peaked a little short, but never reversed down. Forming an Ascending Triangle since late-morning and through the noon hour finally broke higher into the 1:20 bias timing window. Overlapping this afternoon's 3231.00 bias-up signal at 1:20 invoked the grace period. Exceeding 3231.00 at 1:30 triggered late bias-up. Exceeding 3231.00 at 1:30 by only 1 tick was cautionary, until now having probed the pre-1:20 high up to 3236.25. The 3243.00 bias-up target is in-play. And maintaining this probe above prior highs would also signal the rally's next higher targets at 3271.00 and 3288.00 are in-play, too. A breakout putting into play higher rally targets would be subject to confirmation from a second consecutive higher close. Meanwhile, this afternoon's breakout remains vulnerable to snapping back down sharply if a reversal breaks back under the noon hour range's lower-end.

Friday's expiration rally to 3225.25 had reacted down Sunday night to test Thursday and Friday's lows down to 3190.25. Recovering opened flat Monday, and the 3214.00-3216.50 opening range remained intact through the 10:15 no-bias signal. Only then did buyers come alive, extending to fresh highs that ultimately trended up through the final hour. The likely candidate for ending its upleg at 3248.50-3250.25 was fully tested at the 3250.50 high. Reacting down to 3243.00 still qualifies as a new bear market rally high close. Lower overbought RSIs at Monday's late 3250.50 high were still at least borderline overbought, so likely to be retested. Gapping down under Monday's 3225.00-3230.00 noon hour range could be credible for already reversing the trend back down. Meanwhile, finally closing above the 6-week old Island's 3211.00 highs now puts into play 3288.00, and the room for noise around it at 3271.00-3303.00. Confirming Monday's momentum breakout with a second consecutive higher close Tuesday would require at least an eventual third higher close. I shared the observation Monday morning that vaccine plays weren't extending higher, or weren't maintaining early gains. Several favorable headlines within several days may have pushed prices to already discount more headlines yet to come. I didn't see offsetting gains among COVID-cure beneficiaries like Airlines, Cruises, and Gambling stocks, so I'll need a second consecutive day of underperformance to suggest that trend is reversing. The quarterly earnings onslaught should be the highest profile headline. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3267.00 3257.50 ...would target 3278.50 3269.00 Bias-down: under 3246.25 3235.75 ...would target 3231.00 3221.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.