Day Trading Signals and Strategy - 07-29-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Rallying overnight up to 2168.50 didn't ensure any higher highs, especially since the 2168.00-2169.00 area has an almost daily pattern of rejecting rallies. Thursday opened flat and then fell further down to 2153.50. A 9-point bounce was retraced entirely before the morning ended. But the next bounce extended into the final hour, up to 2167.50. The bias environment was exited above the noon hour's high, but no other traction was gained.. Overnight action's new info... .Reaction to post-close earnings from AMZN and GOOG was isolated to NQs. ES was more inhibited by the coming BOJ policy statement. Flat-to-lower ranging blipped-up to 2168.00 on a fat-fingered Yen trade, and its cover triggered a 10-point spike down to 2157.50. Volatility persisted, albeit narrowing the range centered around 2161.50 If, then... Greeting Friday's open at or above 2168.00-2169.00 remains in touch, if not actually in-play. Friday Factors could enable it being the first among 4-5 prior instances in the past week to extend high. Probing Sunday night's highs up to 2175.50 would still be vulnerable to reversing back down, especially since Thursday's rally didn't gain traction. Not gapping up could still probe fresh highs, and would be more vulnerable to failure. The only bearish path must gap down.  We'll be monitoring for a new trend high close, which has predictive value on Fridays.. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2158.0 would be likely to trigger the 2160.75 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2168.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2171.25 would be like to trigger the 2169.00 bias-up signal.

Post-open drop is recovered. The opening bar touched the 2160.75 bias-down signal and snapped up to 2164.75. Consolidating there eventually dipped back under the open, and back down to the 2157.50 overnight low. The dip was recovered to 2161.50, for long enough to invoke the grace period at 10:15. At 10:30, the 2160.75 bias-down signal was being attacked to within 1 tick. But still under it.

A single tick makes it not optimal, but still a late bias-down. Not being optimal, the signal is immediately vulnerable. But only immediately -- not for long, and for only one rejection attempt.

In fact, a buy signal quickly triggered back above 2161.50. Back under the 2160.75 bias-down signal at any time would have rejected the recovery attempt, and confirmed the bias-down. But its validity was confirmed by trending up relentlessly to a fresh post-open high above 2165.00.

I'm treating this as a noN-bias environment. And now 2168.00 is being tested. Back under 2164.75 would target at least an attack on the 2160.75 bias-down signal. Treating this morning as a noN-bias environment allows trending up instead, and even probing new highs. But nothing changes that yesterday afternoon's rally gained no traction. So, probing new highs this morning would be doomed to failure this afternoon.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2176.75 2171.25 ...would target  2181.75  2176.25 Bias-down: under  2169.50  2164.00 ...would target 2164.50  2159.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Fresh intraday highs, with the wrong sponsorship. This morning's bias environment tested the 2169.00 bias-up signal. The noon hour was entered above it. Invalidating the late bias-down signal is complete.

The signal was already suspect for still being within 1 tick of 2160.75 at 10:30. Suspicions grew by quickly recovering 2160.75, and were confirmed by extending relentlessly to a fresh high above 2165.00. Recovering the offsetting signal before fully exiting the bias environment makes it official.

Higher highs during the noon hour touched 2171.75. That stopped 3 ticks pessimistically short of the prior overnight high, so already reacting down is suspicious. An inflection point at 2166.75 has been holding, and the dip was isolated to the noon hour. The 2164.00 bias-down signal is still 3-4 points lower. Overbought RSIs at the high don't require a retest, but back above 2169.25 would target fresh highs anyway. Fresh highs are still vulnerable to failure this afternoon.

Friday morning's probe above Thursday's highs must fail. Thursday's rally had gained no traction for its effort, and only gapping up above it would have been durable. Friday Factors inhibited trending back down. Probing a fresh high Friday afternoon would have all but required snapping back down already. Probing fresh highs Monday can't be discounted, but would be no different than if done Friday afternoon. Except that the consequence for weak-handed buying is now greater. -- not only retracing back into Thursday's range, but retracing its lows. Meanwhile, despite probing fresh intraday highs in the afternoon, a Friday breakout was avoided. Not for lack of proximity, as the entire afternoon was there. But the cash session close was under prior highs, so no additional higher close is required. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

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MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2179.00  2173.50 ...would target  2185.00  2179.50 Bias-down: under  2165.50  2160.00 ...would target 2159.75  2154.25 Signal status:NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.