Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Monday night's eventual slide was attracted first to the intraday unfinished business at 3014.00. Room for noise at 3008.50-3011.75 was exceeded down to the 3002.00-3004.00 maximum pullback limit. Any lower through a relevant window would have signaled something underway other than just a pullback. But the limit's pre-open and post-open tests were isolated to the opening 15 minutes of volatility. Recovering to 3014.00 and 3017.50 resistance didn't completely recover, but the intraday post-open uptrend remained intact. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) Uptrending from yesterday's low has been duplicated to a small degree, and remains intact, but not overly optimistic. Rallying again at the Globex open soon tested Tuesday afternoon's 3017.50 resistance. Its pullback to 3014.00 recovered to fresh highs through midnight. That only pierced 3020.00 a couple of times, ranging widely since then back down to 3014.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Perhaps anxiousness ahead of this afternoon's FOMC events inhibited Tuesday afternoon from exploiting the morning's big support test at 3002.00-3004.00. Perhaps it was AAPL's post-close earnings, although its relief rally was certainly muted. No "unfinished business" below was left outstanding. So, resolving down anyway would suggest a bigger decline underway. But greeting the open with this overnight restrained optimism would make an early buy signal very compelling. Back under 3010.25 would start to look more bearish. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3014.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3071.75 buy signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3011.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 3009.25 bias-down signal.

Repeating yesterday's pessimistic big support test ahead of the afternoon's news? The 3016.25 opening print was back under yesterday's 3018.25 high. But it was still high enough to maintain the uptrend from yesterday's low. That had room below to test 3010.25 before breaking the pattern of higher lows and higher highs. The opening 15 minutes of volatility fluctuated narrowly. Its range was overlapped by the next two 15-minute windows, albeit 1-2 ticks lower. Neither bias signal was touched, and no sponsorship was even indicated. No-bias was signaled. As I warned that narrow ranges shouldn't be mistaken for stability, price began slipping. And soon slipped sharply. The 3009.25 bias-down signal was touched at 10:30. Too late for holding its test to require an offsetting test of the bias-up signal. And too late for its break to invalidate no-bias. The 3009.25 bias-down signal should define the no-bias window's lower-end, but not necessarily recover.

The dip came amid a variety of econ report, last among them a negative reaction to Crude's EIA. It may be a repeat of yesterday's opening test of 3002.00-3004.00 support -- big support, held and rejected through a big timing window -- and only constructive pessimism ahead of this afternoon's FOMC events.

Back above 3012.50 (being tested now) and 3014.25 would start to suggest a recovery underway, anyway. Otherwise, exiting the bias environment lower would justify being more bearish.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3021.50 3022.25 ...would target 3028.75 3029.50 Bias-down: under 3013.25 3014.00 ...would target 3007.25 3008.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Waiting patiently for the news. Holding a test of the 3009.25 bias-down signal before 10:15 would have required bouncing up to the 3017.75 bias-up signal. Testing 3009.25 after 10:15 would only require that it define the bias environment's lower-end. 3009.25 was touched at 10:30, held, and still produced a bounce up to 3017.75 (+ 3 ticks). It's all just noise within the range. But the influences of 3009.25 and 3017.75 were identified at yesterday's close, so there is an ongoing relationship. Nevertheless, the range persists, especially ahead of this afternoon's FOMC events. Neither afternoon bias signal was touched so this is a no-bias environment. The first headline reaction might not be the best reaction. And the eventual reaction should settle a little before the Fed chair Q&A begins. Meanwhile, keep in mind the open's congestion which will make it difficult to maintain a probe beyond either end of the range.

I was pretty satisfied already by the morning's bounce from touching its 3009.25 bias-down signal. The overnight pattern suggested patiently waiting for a long-entry setup, which finally came. A bounce wasted no time extending to the window's upper-end attacking 3018.00. That was nothing. Any trending would have to be substantial if it were to break free from the opening range's magnetic attraction. There was still potential for a bigger bounce in reaction to FOMC, possibly on temporarily. A negative reaction was less likely after having held Tuesday's test of big support at 3002.00-3004.00. Its break would put into play 2980.00. A brief dip could still hold. The FOMC reaction eventually did touch 3004.00, and bounced 10 points. But the Fed Chair's Q&A triggered another sell signal under 3007.50. The next leg's 2980.00 target wasn't even acknowledged on the way down to 2958.00. Its 40-point bounce was reversed down through the position-squaring window, closing just under 2980.00. About 20 points off the low and about 40 points under the overnight high. Once again, the FOMC meeting day delivers the most opportunistic environment. A 3-week old prior low's test defined Wednesday's low. Prior low's don't produce durable bottoms, so a retest is likely. Its break would next target 2947.50 and 2931.00. Somehow rallying first could get to 3010.00 before encountering resistance from "higher prior lows." Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2984.25 2985.00 ...would target 2992.00 2992.75 Bias-down: under 2972.25 2973.00 ...would target 2966.25 2967.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.