Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Tuesday's intraday range was probed overnight by an attack on 3021.00. Touching the morning's 3009.25 bias-down signal during its no-bias environment held its support as was required, being too late to break and trigger it. Its reaction soon bounced to test the 3017.75 bias-up signal by 3 ticks. A negative reaction to the FOMC policy statement tested its minimum objective at 3004.00 and bounced 10 points. Another negative reaction to the Fed Chair Q&A tested its minimum objective  at 2980.00 and plunged another 22 points to 2958.00. Bouncing 40 points to 2999.00 reversed down through the position-squaring window, to close just under 2980.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) The Globex open immediately dipped another 14 points to attack 2966.00 (testing this morning's bias-down target). And that immediately began reversing up to reach 2985.00 (touching this morning's bias-up signal) at midnight. Its reaction attacked 2973.00 (attacking this morning's bias-down signal) at Europe's opens. The recovery resumed, now probing back into positive territory at 2989.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Overnight action has pivoted repeatedly at this morning's bias signals, which are levels calculated from price action through yesterday's close. This strongly suggests that no new perspective has yet arrived. and the overnight bounce is a correction of the drop preceding it. And that suggests resuming the decline today, which was already suggested by the source of yesterday's low -- it was a 3-week old prior low's test as support, and prior low's don't produce durable bottoms, making its retest likely. Lower lows would next target 2947.50 and 2931.00. Otherwise, extending the overnight rally first could get to 3010.00 before encountering resistance from "higher prior lows.". First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2980.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2985.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2988.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

And then exceeded by a lot. Retesting the 2989.75 overnight highs had launched a pullback down to 2978.00. This coincided with uptrending support from the two prior overnight lows, which once again launched another upleg. Already firming to greet the open at 2981.25, the first hour has trended straight up to 2998.50. The 2992.75 bias-up target was exceeded by at least 1 tick at 10:15, which was too close to qualify for renewing the bias-up signal. Otherwise, that would have renewed the bias-up signal, next targeting 2999.75. Nevertheless, the 2999.75 renewed bias-up target is itself being probed up to 3005.50. This is also testing 3002.00-3004.00. That was big support which defined Tuesday's low, and attracted Wednesday's first FOMC reaction down. It's likely to serve as big resistance from below. Overbought RSIs at the 3005.50 high are problematic to reversing down immediately. Its retest still has room up to "higher prior lows" at 3010.00-3011.00. Back under 2999.00 would meanwhile signal momentum already reversing down. Otherwise, somehow recovering 3014.00 could next target new highs at 3033.00.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3014.75 3015.00 ...would target 3023.25 3023.50 Bias-down: under 3005.00 3005.50 ...would target 2997.50 2998.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Anxiousness gets ambushed by tariff hike. Recall that the rally from yesterday's low was only going to be a correction. It got through multiple resistance. Its 2992.75 bias-up target, 2995.50 room for noise, and then the next higher objective of "higher prior lows" at 3010.00-3011.00, each influenced price action upon its test. But each ultimately recovered to probe higher, finally touching 3014.25. Extending higher this afternoon would have been difficult and unlikely, with anxiousness ahead of tomorrow's pre-open Employment Situation report. Backing-and-filling was likelier.

Then came a China trade headline (tariff hikes) triggering a sell signal under 3007.50. The 3005.50 bias-down signal was probed through 1:30 to invalidate the no-bias signal. Its 2998.00 bias-down target is being probed, too, now down to 2966.25.

At least a retest of yesterday's 2858.00 low remains likely, if not also probing under it to 2947.50 and 2931.00. Not at least testing yesterday's low today would likely reflect too much optimism to yet form a durable bottom. And a bounce today remains possible because this drop's catalyst is artificial -- albeit that its influence is being exacerbated by the organic likelihood for retracing today's rally anyway.

Whatever the interim path, Wednesday's 2958.00 low was a "V" bottom that required an eventual retest, targeting 2947.50 and potentially 2931.00. The overnight rally to 2990.00 could have resolved down to probe Wednesday's low, but the morning instead rallied sharply to 3014.25. Anxiousness ahead of Friday's pre-open Employment Situation report started setting in. Its paralysis could be seen in sideways ranging through the noon hour. Then a China trade headline triggered a collapse back down through yesterday's low to 2944.50. The retest's 2947.50 target was met. RSI had stopped confirming or even began diverging positively. The bias environment was lapsing. Finally, pre-payrolls anxiousness had returned. A bounce attacked 2965.00 with every opportunity to drift another 17 points back up to unchanged, but it only ranged sideways through the close. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2968.25 2968.50 ...would target 2976.75 2977.00 Bias-down: under 2947.25 2947.50 ...would target 2939.75 2940.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.