Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Rallying 23 points overnight from the 2966.50 overnight low greeted Thursday's open essentially flat with Wednesday's close around 2980.00. The morning rallied sharply to fulfill its highest potential at 3010.00-3011.00, probing it up to 3014.25. Anxiousness ahead of Friday's pre-open Employment Situation report had barely begun paralyzing price action through the noon hour, when a China trade headline triggered a collapse. The bounce was always expected to be temporary because Wednesday's 2958.00 "V" bottom required an eventual retest, targeting 2947.50 and potentially 2931.00. That unfinished business exacerbated the headline's reaction, sending the collapse back down through Wednesday's low to 2944.50. The last 90 minutes ranged sideways back up to 2964.50. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) Thursday's late ranging trended down into the close, and into the Globex open. Fresh lows tested 2939.00 before midnight, and ranged narrowly sideways back up to 2950.00 into Europe's opens. That brought fresh lows down to 2933.50, now bouncing back up to 2947.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Lower lows were likely because overseas markets had yet to react to Thursday's intraday reversal. So far, their response has been somewhat muted -- less so in price which came within 2 points of the 2931.00 target overnight, as in its degree which has been shallow. That could just be restrained pessimism, which is potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective, especially coming so close to this morning's Employment Situation report. Opening above yesterday's 2952.00-2954.00 close and remaining above yesterday's lows could isolate the overnight probe, and and the decline. Friday Factors can have that effect if sellers don't gain traction early. Of course, Friday Factors can cut either way, and exiting the open without yet recovering above prior lows could be exacerbated by sellers trying to avoid being exposed to two days of illiquidity. At least a gap up that reverses into negative territory could be recovered through the close to form a Pivot Reversal, but that interim probe of fresh lows is dangerous ahead of the weekend. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) There are no preliminary indications ahead of the Employment Situation report.

It's getting ugly. The pre-open Employment Situation report triggered a blip down to pierce the 2933.50 overnight low. It still stopped short of the decline's next target at 2931.00. That optimism took another dimension by8 surging sharply pre-open up to 2961.00. Whatever that was about, it was retraced by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} down to the 2843.50 open. Bullish templates aren't tracking. No gap gap up into positive territory that might Isolate the overnight probe, and no gap up that might recover fresh lows to form a Pivot Reversal. Perhaps a Key Reversal will form by rejecting fresh trend lows to close positive. That's only getting more difficult as the decline extends down now to 2916.00. RSIs are oversold at 2916.00. That would normally doom any bounce to failure, but this being a Friday in a wide range makes me willing to trade counter-trend. Meanwhile, the next lower target under 2947.50 was 2931.00, and its next lower target is 2903.00-2907.00 Then 2896.00-2898.00.  

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2931.50 2931.00 ...would target 2938.75 2938.25 Bias-down: under 2915.75 2915.50 ...would target 2907.25 2907.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, BIAS-UP SIGNAL TESTED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Down for the count? This morning's low was ultimately 2913.50. Well below 2931.00, but still stopping short of the next lower target area at 2903.00-2907.00. 2931.00, which is also this afternoon's bias-up signal, was tested up to 2933.50 at the noon hour's high. Its reaction down has attacked the low to within 3 points at 2916.25, which is within 3 ticks of this afternoon's bias-down signal. This is a no-bias environment. This afternoon's 2915.50 bias-down signal should define the window's low if tested. Probing lower would require its retracement. The likeliest scenarios include probing fresh session lows today. Fresh lows, whether or not recovered back into the range, or extended down through the close. Rallying from this pattern would be unlikely on any day other than a Friday, but the impending illiquidity makes it possible.

Already trending down overnight greeted Friday's pre-open Employment Situation report at 2944.00, 10 points off the low. Its reaction blipped back down to the low, and soon surged up to 2961.00. The surge had melted away into the open, and continued melting lower through the morning to 2913.50. 2903.00-2907.00 is the next lower target under 2931.00, and 2931.00 wasn't recovered through any timing window, so 2903.00-2907.00 is likely to be tested. And its delayed test is likely also to visit 2996.00-2998.00. Friday's pattern was likely to probe under the morning's lows, but didn't. That's possible on Fridays because of its tendency to accelerate afternoon orders when the open trends sharply. Similarly, the pattern isn't likely to rally during the afternoon. But that's also possible on Fridays as the weekend's impending illiquidity is the tinder that can catch fire from the right spark. Friday afternoon avoided fresh lows, and its rally attacked the open's 2946.00 high to within 1 point. Then it failed. Closing at or under 2931.00 -- not decisively recovering it -- keeps alive the downside momentum and its lower attractions. A credible detour higher requires immediately surging or gapping up Monday, while it's still possible to recover from a shallower dip. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW