Day Trading Signals and Strategy - 08-03-2015

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2112.25
2105.50
...would target 2118.00
2111.25
Bias-down: under 2102.25
2095.50
...would target 2094.75
2088.00
Signal status: LATE BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Friday''s range was choppy, but trending attempts in either direction failed to extend. Overnight action had twice probed above Wed-Thu 2104.25 highs, greeting Friday''s open from above 2108.00. That didn''t prevent sliding immediately back into the range to 2099.00. The noon hour''s probe above 2104.25 reversed down more deeply to attack 2095.00 before bouncing into the close.

Overnight action''s new info...
Sunday night''s "pattern" is the nearest thing to a random walk that I''ve seen on the screen in quite awhile. A flat open hovering under 2105.50 suddenly collapsed to attack Friday''s late 2095.00 low. Gradual choppiness pierced lower and lower to 2093.50 through Europe''s opens. A 9-point surge to 2102.50 was retraced almost as quickly back down to pierce 2093.50. Its retest didn''t react up as much, but price action has settled in around unchanged.

If, then...
Overnight selling pressure hasn''t been less overwhelming and more ongoing. Sellers haven''t thrown a lot at the market, but their throwing has been relentless. All of that effort hasn''t had much impact. If this sounds familiar, that''s because Friday''s choppy ranging was similarly ineffectual. It''s not too late for sellers to take greater control, but a bullish resolution becomes likelier as the open grows nearer without any rally efforts being absorbed .

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2099.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2095.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2093.00 would be likely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2101.50 would be likely to trigger the 2105.50 bias-up signal.

Early strength would have been credible. We''ll never know.

Opening at or under 2099.25 quickly extended down to the 2095.50 bias-down signal, and then spiked down under the overnight lows to 2091.25.

Reacting up to 2097.50 was retraced deeply enough to overlap the 2095.50 bias-down signal at 10:15, invoking the grace period. And 2095.50 broke lower through 10:30 to trigger late bias-down.

The 2088.00 bias-down target is in-play. Being a late signal makes the target a little more capable of holding its test, instead of extending down to 2084.00 and 2077.00.

Fresh lows are being probed down to 2089.50 while RSIs refuse to turn oversold. Expending so much selling pressure so quickly also improves the potential for the 2088.00 target''s test to recover. But the only credible buy signals are back above the bias-down signal, or else after fulfilling the bias-down target.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2106.00
2099.25
...would target 2112.25
2105.50
Bias-down: under 2100.75
2094.00
...would target 2094.75
2088.00
Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Friday''s odd detour was retraced a little more deeply into Monday''s open, testing 1.0945 as support what had been the prior downleg''s bounce limit. Its break would target new lows, so rejecting it and recovering without delay may be the only path higher.

Gold Dec Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
[Rolling coverage forward to Dec, which trades at a $0.50 discount to Aug] Flat-to-lower ranging supported by 1088.00 sat out conspicuously from otherwise volatile stock and bond market action. Back above 1100.00-1105.00 would be credible for extending sharply higher intraday. Delaying its recovery much past noon Tuesday would instead start to develop a new downleg.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Dipping once again back under 14.75 Friday extended lower Monday to test 14.50 support, which should hold to maintain the 14.75 buy signal''s validity.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Hardly any hesitation interrupted extending the rally to within 8 ticks of its next higher attraction at 158-08. The rally remains intact so long as 156-24 now holds as support.

Crude Oil Sep Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Last week''s break under 148.25 targeting 144.25 was extending down already into Monday''s open, and extended down deeper intraday to test 145.10-145.15, which is the last support prior to the 144.25 target.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Bouncing overnight to attack the 2.77 buy signal was retraced Monday morning back down to Friday''s test of 2.70 support. Bouncing again from the filled gap was well within proximity to trigger 2.77 Tuesday if a deeper drop is to be avoided.