DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&AExpert Pre-Open Trading Strategy - 7:34 AM
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Stock Market Opening Update - 10:53 AM
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Tonight's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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Day Trading Mid-Day Thoughts - 1:43 PM
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Market Summary - 4:32 PM
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The news was greeted at Thursday's 2828.50-2831.00 highs, where its reaction fluctuated into and out of the open. Of course, the report wasn't the only influence, so it's more coincidence than efficiency that the news was already perfectly discounted. But it's still
Breaking out of the 2828.50-2831.00 range attacked the 2836.00 overnight high before retracing. The open's range held as support, and being Friday morning, sellers were done. Not finished, but done. The balance of the session trended higher to fulfill both the morning and afternoon's 2837.50 and 2838.50 bias-up targets.
And higher. Exiting Friday afternoon's bias environment beyond the session's other timing windows tends to extend. The final hour's entry surged up to 2840.25 where resistance was already identified. Its reaction down was brief, and too late to be the work of strong-handed sponsorship. The afternoon's uptrending pivotal support held its initial test, and overbought RSIs attracted the close back up to the high.
Retracing the prior week's 2838.25-2842.25 high close confirms the interim dip was only a temporary correction. Which also confirms the eventual third higher close requirement. Closing within the prior high close's range doesn't qualify. The likelihood for probing January's highs remains intact, too.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
THE LINK TO THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW WILL BE EMAILED BEFORE ITS 9:30 ET START.
Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 5:55 PM
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Muted payrolls reaction trying to resolve up.
The surprise move by the PBOC had taken the market from 2828.50 up to 2836.00. But only temporarily before greeting the Employment Situation report at 2831.00. Its knee-jerk reaction tested and retested 2727.75 before the open, which was 2828.50.
The first half-hour then fluctuated narrowly, resisted up to 2831.00, and supported by tests of 2727.75. Resolving up invoked the grace period, but ultimately triggered the 2831.00 bias-up signal. Its 2837.50 bias-up target is in-play.
The pre-open high has been attacked to within 2-3 ticks at 2835.50. Its resistance is interesting, and holding its retest through a relevant window could establish an intraday extreme. Stopping pessimistically short of even touching it could keep buying pressure healthy enough to extend the rally this afternoon.
Reversing down is more difficult at this stage. But back under 2831.00 (being attacked now) would start to signal a pullback underway, even if only temporarily to retest the ~2525.00 overnight lows.
FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2833.00
2833.00
...would target
2838.50
2838.50
Bias-down: under
2825.00
2825.25
...would target
2819.75
2820.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP
FAQ
Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
More upside objectives in-play.
Finally rallying out of the open's 2828.50-2831.00 range attacked the 2836.00 overnight high to within 2-3 ticks. Bias-up triggered late, putting into play 2837.50. And then price dipped back down to 2828.50.
Sellers had all morning to actually reverse price down, if they were able. But they couldn't and didn't. Their break under 2831.00 didn't extend beyond its room for noise below. The only attraction is higher, so buyers get a benefit of the doubt.
In fact, rallying again since noon has attacked the 2836.00 overnight high to within 1 tick. That triggered another bias-up, putting into play 2838.50.
Back under 2831.00 would still be credible for producing a detour down. But a more credible sell signal will be available after upside objectives are met.
Thursday's relentless optimism clearly discounted Friday's Employment Situation report.
MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2841.00
2841.00
...would target
2846.00
2846.00
Bias-down: under
2832.00
2832.50
...would target
2825.50
2826.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP
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NEW: BIAS INTRO VIDEO
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.