Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... The rally seems to be in a stage of relentlessness. Gapping up Tuesday above Monday's 2853.50 high to 2857.00, and not trending up from within Monday's range, reflects strong-handed sponsorship. It creates a position of strength. Tuesday's open attracted more strength as it rallied another 8 points to attack 2864.00. That's a lot of energy to expend, gapping up and extending, but the position of strength would keep strong-handed sellers away. The open's rally didn't resume, but the balance of the session only ranged choppily sideways back down to 2858.00 -- still above Monday's highs. Overnight action's new info... Tuesday afternoon's choppy range persisted overnight, albeit more narrowly between 2858.00-2861.50. With one exception, breaking lower to 2856.25 into Europe's opens. But only a brief exception, as the break was recovered back into the range as quickly as it had developed. Now 2861.50 is being attacked. If, then... Extending the rally would next target 2873.00 with potential to 2883.00. Probing fresh highs this morning probably wouldn't tolerate much hesitation in extending -- yesterday and now the overnight has done enough backing-and-filling. Hesitating at fresh highs for too long could soon reverse back under overnight lows. Hesitating to probe higher at all could soon reverse back under overnight lows, too. Regardless of how it starts, a dip would be considered only a temporary correction, whether just testing Monday afternoon's range down to 2851.00-2852.00, or deeper down to 2841.00-2843.00.. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2858.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2856.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2861.75 would be unlikely to trigger the 2864.00 bias-up signal.

Backing-and-filling becomes more obvious, hits a vein. A brief overnight dip had attacked this morning's 2856.00 bias-down signal. It was retraced back to the 2861.25 overnight high. But not for very long, as another dip fell to 2855.00. Now a very choppy open has triggered "late bias-down," putting into play its 2851.00 bias-down target. And fresh lows have developed down to 2853.00. Fresh lows compared to pre-10:15, which is pretty reliable confirmation.

Having said that, the trailing bounce limit was violated above 2854.75-2855.75. And a surge is probing fresh post-open highs at 2860.00.

Back under 2857.00 would reinstate downside momentum. Unless the bias environment were exited above its 2864.00 bias-up signal, this morning's 2851.00 bias-down target will become "unfinished business below." Meanwhile, surging from fresh lows to fresh highs seems like something else is developing. A retest of yesterday's highs under 2864.00 may be underway.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2862.25 2862.25 ...would target 2867.75 2867.75 Bias-down: under 2855.75 2855.50 ...would target 2850.50 2850.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Attempted liftoff still barely hovering. This morning's detour ultimately bounced up to 2861.00. The 2851.00 bias-down target was only attacked to within 2 points, which does not qualify as fulfilling it. So, it becomes "unfinished business below."

Any interim bounce should be only noise. Noise within negative territory, like this morning's bounce (RSIs diverged negatively during the momentary probe above 2859.00-2860.00). Noise up to this afternoon's 2862.25 bias-up signal during the no-bias environment.Noise back up to yesterday's high under 2864.00.

Any higher would not be noise. So, any higher would be unlikely. And any higher would be problematic to the likely downside resolution. We'll address that if it develops. Meanwhile, ineffectual optimism has a cost. The market might compensate for the detour by probing under 2851.00. Or by breaking to the next lower support at 2841.00-2843.00. We'll address that, too, if it develops.

A funny thing happened on the way to fulfilling Wednesday morning's bias-down signal. Its 2851.00 bias-down target was attacked to within only 2 points when price began suddenly reversing up. The bias environment started lapsing after a surge up to 2860.00 and 2861.00, leaving "unfinished business below" at 2851.00.

Assuming 2851.00 is eventually met, the market is likely to compensate for its delay by extending down to the next lower support at 2841.00-2843.00.

Reversing down anytime soon may seem like an odd discussion after extending even higher through Wednesday afternoon. But the 3:10-3:20 proxy window tried, and failed to gain traction. Then a fresh high at 2862.50 was reversed back under the proxy window's 2860.25 low. Which could have been a compelling hold-short. And then price collapsed. Plunging through Wednesday's close settled 1 point under 2856.00, which had been the overnight low and the morning's bias signal. The intraday bounce seems more clearly to have been a detour. And 2851.00 seems more clearly to still be in-play. 2851.00 can be fulfilled, and held, overnight. Regardless, gapping up Thursday above Wednesday's 2861.00-2862.50 highs would resume the rally. Upside potential would still be 2873.00-2883.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2859.50 2859.50 ...would target 2866.25 2866.25 Bias-down: under 2852.50 2852.25 ...would target 2846.50 2846.25 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP . NEW: BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.