Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday night's rally had probed 2925.25-2933.00 up to 2946.50. Despite gapping up to 2941.50 the first 15 minutes of volatility trended down to 2934.50. Potential for recovering disappeared as price collapsed down to 2913.25. The 2925.25-2933.00 kill zone resistance would hold again, albeit tested 2-3 more times. Its latest test was within 3 minutes of the cash session close, which held as the session ended nearly unchanged around 2924.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last session and Globex) As it turns out, Sunday night's reaction to the pre-scheduled tariffs wasn't so devastating. But the reaction to the reaction was hit by new news, and the market is still trying to absorb it. Sunday night gapped down 30 points to 2894.00 in reaction to China trade tariffs, and gradually recovered entirely to once again pierce the kill zone's 2925.25 lower-end early Monday morning. But a reaction down to 2911.00-2915.00 didn't take well another China trade headline and suddenly collapsed to 2889.00. Its recovery retraced only back up to 2915.00 Monday night. And only temporarily, greeting Europe's opens back down at 2896.00-2898.00, now being retested as support down to 2895.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Tuesday's open may yet be greeted higher, from back above either bias-down parameter. Both have been influential as resistance, especially the 2914.25 bias-down signal. Its recovery through any relevant timing window would target the entire 2925.25-2933.00 kill zone's recovery, and probably higher. Still testing 2896.00-2898.00 below isn't necessarily bearish, not so long as its test is isolated to timing window like the open, and aggressively recovered through the morning. The next lower objective would be "lower prior highs" at 2886.00, which could still be rejected aggressively, but that gets difficult from so low. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2901.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2907.75 bias-down target at 10:15 and renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2911.00 would be likely at least to trigger the 2914.25 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Nothing new but the timing. Through all of the headlines, headline reactions, and headline reaction retracements, multiple tests of 2896.00-2898.00 had held as support. But recoveries had been holding the 2914.25 bias-down signal as resistance. And then returning down to 2896.00-2898.00. This morning's open also completed a bounce from 2896.00-2898.00 back up to 2914.25. Any higher any later would have triggered no-bias and put into play offsetting tests of both bias-up parameters. But a post-open econ report triggered a collapse down to 2891.00.

There was no bullish reason to revisit 2896.00-2898.00 post-open, except to reject it aggressively through the open. Which didn't happen. Its test can still be rejected aggressively through the next larger window, by recovering the 2907.75 and 2914.25 bias-down parameters through the bias environment exit. Which might happen.

Back above 2908.00 would start to signal a bigger recovery attempt underway. Meanwhile, bounces are likely to fail, and fresh lows are likely down to 2886.00-2888.00.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2911.25 2911.00 ...would target 2919.00 2918.75 Bias-down: under 2899.75 2899.75 ...would target 2892.50 2892.50 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Early trending still not rejected. The open's test of 2896.00-2898.00 down to 2891.00 could have been rejected in time to isolate it, but it wasn't really the open's test. Its test came too late to attract counter-trend sponsorship. So, its test became part of the morning's bias environment, and rejecting it at the bias environment exit could have isolated it. But its reaction only briefly probed the morning's 2907.75 bias-down target as resistance, and has since drifted back down to 2896.00-2898.00. Now this afternoon's 2899.75 bias-down signal has avoided both triggering AND being rejected. It was still being tested both at 1:20 and 1:30 for a noN-bias environment. It need not define the window's lower-end, and its 2892.50 bias-down target isn't in-play. But the nearest attraction is lower without triggering a buy signal, like 2902.25. Especially when there was no bullish reason to retest 2896.00-2898.00 this morning without rejecting it. Fresh lows at 2886.00-2888.00 remain likely to be tested.

The Labor Day holiday ultimately gave the market a defensive start to September, but it didn't attract new sponsorship. Gapping down to 2904.00 Tuesday was actually in recovery from Monday night's 2894.00 low and on the way up to 2914.00. And that defined the day's bullish range. Everything subsequently developed lower. Defensive posturing absorbed the open's recovery attempt by collapsing to 2891.00. Avoiding Monday morning's 2889.00 low to launch a bounce testing 2909.00 was only retraced to afternoon lows back down at 2894.00. Yet another bounce into the close attacked 2909.00 and closed around 2906.00. So, disaster averted? The market did seem successful at not extending below Sunday night and Monday's probes of 2896.00-2898.00. But the hesitation to extend down was never exploited by reversing up. Gapping up Wednesday would be credible for extending back into the 2925.25-2933.00 kill zone. Meanwhile, strong-handed buyers are probably waiting patiently below no closer than 2886.00-2888.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2911.25 2911.00 ...would target 2919.00 2918.75 Bias-down: under 2899.00 2899.00 ...would target 2892.75 2892.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.