Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Wednesday's late-afternoon 2112.00 low had pierced Tuesday's low by a single tick. That was bearish enough to all but ensure lower lows on the horizon, whether immediately or delayed. Delayed. The last half-hour bounced up to 2119.50, almost all of it retraced by spiking down into the futures close. The stopped WedEX from triggering an optimal signal, other than it not rejecting the cumulative chipping away at support. It was a second consecutive close under 2134.00. But a hold-short was narrowly avoided, and overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the morning's 2134.50 high. Overnight action's new info... Initial firming was jolted abruptly by a 9-point plunge that was triggered by concerns over next week's BOJ meeting. The fresh low tested "lower prior highs" from Sunday night's consolidation down to 2108.00. Completely retracing the drop before Europe's opens, the recovery extended well into positive territory to greet this morning's BOE policy statement at 2123.25. The immediate reaction has dipped to 2118.00. If, then... I have been noting that this month's WedEX seems capable of both trending and counter-trending, with substantial moves in either direction. Only several hours after triggering WedEX, we've already seen an example of each... Now the overnight rally might seem to make gapping down Thursday more difficult. Perhaps a little, but that's a function of the recovery's momentum, which has become quite stretched. The open is still the open, and this morning's econ calendar is busy (5 reports simultaneously at 8:30!)... Testing Monday's 2110.50 post-open low overnight has created an attraction that would soon be in-play if the open doesn't immediately recover a dip back into negative territory. Actually gapping down under 2110.50 still would serve by proxy to trigger a Bearish WedEX. Otherwise, gapping up above 2134.00 is the minimum to even suggest a Bullish WedEX. It is meanwhile resistance. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2121.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2124.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2121.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2114.25 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2127.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Pre-open and post-open dips absorbed. The pre-open rally had tested the 2124.25 bias-up signal, and its reaction had tested the 2114.50 bias-down signal. That was pretty close to the open, but it didn't equate to being a post-open test of the bias-down signal. The open's surge up to 2122.25 reacted down to 2114.75. Another bounce reacted down to 2114.50. Those were post-open, and pretty close to the bias-down signal. But they didn't qualify as tests, either. And the second test's reaction up started suggesting that sellers were marginalized.

Holding a test of the bias-down signal would have put into play an offsetting test of the 2124.25 bias-up signal. No need for that -- bias-up triggered.

The 2128.00 high that printed by 10:15 has yet to be exceeded. Until it is, the bias-up can still be invalidated by exiting the bias environment back under the 2124.25 bias-up signal. Back under 2123.25 would start to signal momentum reversing down. Exiting the bias environment under its 2114.50 bias-down signal would still put into play its 2109.00 bias-down target. Otherwise, the 2131.00 bias-up target is in-play. While sellers are marginalized for the morning, fulfilling the bias-up target would be an opportunity for today's session to peak. Beware of sudden and substantial reversals during this expiration cycle.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2147.00 2139.75 ...would target  2153.00  2146.00 Bias-down: under  2139.25  2132.25 ...would target 2133.00  2125.75 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning rally not yet backing-off. Absorbing the pre-open dip and its shallower post-open dip had marginalized sellers for the morning. Buyers exploited the conditions by triggering the 2124.25 bias-up signal. Its 2131.00 bias-up target was met, as was the 2135.50 next higher objective. The morning's bias environment began lapsing at 2138.00. Simultaneously overbought 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs at the morning's high required a retest. That was just fulfilled, as the noon hour's retracement to 2130.25 recovered the 2132.25 bias-down signal in time to trigger late no-bias. Room up to the 2139.75 bias-up signal was just fulfilled, too, taking RSIs overbought again. Regardless of how strong the trending in one direction, we're not considering it to be durable. Price action has been suggesting that this expiration can counter any trending. That would allow fulfilling the 2095.00 objective which yesterday afternoon's market has already put on its to-do list.

Thursday's session was greeted by three main influences. They are the 2134.00 dividing line that indicates whether sellers are retaking control, the 2095.00 retest of Sunday night's low that was attempted Wednesday night, and the not-bullish WedEX that Thursday's open failed to further define. Each is described in detail during the post-market Wrap. Also discussed are two new elements. The first is overbought RSIs left outstanding at Thursday's 2144.50 high. Retesting it could extend to "higher prior lows" from Monday afternoon at  2049.00, which itself could be probed up to 2050.50. Second is that Thursday's rally gained no traction. Gapping up could compensate for that, which the unfinished business above at Thursday's overbought RSIs could incite. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2150.50 2143.50 ...would target  2156.00  2149.00 Bias-down: under  2139.75  2132.75 ...would target 2134.00  2127.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.