Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Rallying overnight up to 2993.00 still greeted Friday's open at 2988.00, but on the way down to 2973.00, and not to extend the rally. Yet another test of 2975.00, but still no air pocket below as price bounced to 2987.00. It took a China trade headline to reveal a 23-point air pocket down to the low 2960's at 2962.50. Its likelihood of resolving down to fresh lows at 2951.00 followed another bounce to 2982.00, and fresh lows extended down to 2946.25. Recovering to close back above 2951.00 avoided putting into play the next lower attractions at 2940.00 down to 2916.00-2919.00. The late recovery also avoided reversing the trend up, although the bounce extended post-close up to 2969.50. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Another China trade headline, contradicting the catalyst for Friday morning's collapse from 2986.25, triggered a gap up Sunday night to 2976.00 that surged up to 2980.25. It was quickly retraced down to 2965.50, still above Friday's 2963.00-2964.00 close. And that was recovered up to  2978.25 before midnight. Sideways ranging supported by 2972.50 has persisted through Europe's opens, only now probing lower to test 2970.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Maintaining  the overnight gap up isn't necessarily bullish, not until it is extended beyond a relevant resistance. The lower-end of last night's narrow ranging is defined by this morning's bias-up signal, and ranging at or around it doesn't yet indicate the resolution's direction. The bullish scenarios wouldn't delay being more productive, or else recover from a deeper reaction down through the open. The initial stages of the bearish scenarios look similar to the bullish scenarios -- extending higher but quickly failing, or not recovering from a deeper reaction down. And being a narrow range, its resolution isn't any likelier to trend organically. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2970.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2972.50 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2975.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Pullbacks avoiding negative territory. Ranging sideways overnight from its gap up had left the intraday with a couple of bullish and bearish scenarios. Each set was a mirror image of the other. The options were reduced by a pre-open probed under the 2972.50 bias-up signal, which had served all night as support. The dip to 2965.00 was still 1-2 points above Friday's close. It limited the opening scenarios either to bullishly snapping back up, or to bearishly extending down. Sideways ranges offer that degree of simplicity, but the trade-off is low predictability. The pre-open dip did snap back up through the open and attack 2977.00. Any higher through a relevant window could marginalize sellers for the day. But so far 2977.00 has been overlapped and not broken. Still, this is a bias-up environment, yet to test its 2980.00 bias-up target. It would become "unfinished business" if left outstanding, regardless of having been touched at Sunday night's open. Back under 2971.00 would start to signal a deeper detour first.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2983.00 2984.25 ...would target 2990.25 2991.50 Bias-down: under 2972.25 2973.75 ...would target 2966.25 2967.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Still an inside day. This morning's 2972.50 bias-up signal was extended to fulfill its 2980.00 bias-up target. And that was extended to touch this afternoon's 2984.25 bias-up signal. But that didn't trigger, and now the bias environment's upper-end should be contained by it. A drop has room to the 2973.75 bias-down signal until this window starts lapsing. All of which is developing within Friday's range. This is an inside day, and at this pace it will probably remain an inside day during observance of the Jewish New Year. Gapping up and trending up and closing within the prior session's range reflects weak-handed optimism. From a contrarian perspective, that is potentially bearish, possibly today. End-o'quarter portfolio window dressing usually has a last-minute impact, and not being a direct opinion, its weak-handed sponsorship could resolve either way. I'll consider selling the reaction down from a fresh high at 2985.50. But given the weak-handed, low volume environment I would hesitate selling strength.

Gapping open and trending in the gap's direction is "weak-handed" sponsorship when it develops elusively within a prior session's range. The inside day is assumed to be counter-trend, regardless of the prevailing trend. Monday's gap up within Friday's inside day did that, trending up into the afternoon without being rejected through the close. So, weak handed buyers? Not necessarily. Monday's intraday trending wasn't a knee-jerk reaction, and its weak volume was a function only of lower participation due to the Jewish New Year observance. This isn't reliable as a contrary indicator, regardless of whether Monday's bounce resolves down. But resolving up would help to confirm a recovery is underway. Immediately recovering Monday's 2985.00 high through Tuesday's open, maintaining it and preferably also extending higher through the open, would be credible for extending the rally from Friday's low. Coincindentally, that's also the basis for a "session-long rally" setup, although Monday's closing action didn't qualify cleanly (it didn't trend down any deeper after entering the position-squaring window, and futures surged to a fresh high), but still bullish if Monday afternoon's high -- which is also the session high -- does recover through Tuesday's open Trending down Tuesday doesn't require any specific open. But not already rallying into Tuesday's open is likely at least to retrace more of Monday's rally. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2983.00 2984.25 ...would target 2990.25 2991.50 Bias-down: under 2971.75 2973.00 ...would target 2965.75 2967.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET, BOTH BIAS-UP PARAMETERS TESTED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.