Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Gapping up slightly Tuesday held a test of the morning's 2156.50 bias-up signal. Three times. Each test reacted down to test the 2148.75 bias-down signal, deeper and deeper. The third time was least charming, sliding through the afternoon to 2136.00. And that gained traction, exiting the bias environment under the noon hour's low, then entering the final hour lower. Only 3-minute RSI was decisively oversold at the low, although 1-minute RSI was on the cusp. Overnight action's new info... Choppy ranging has momentarily pierced positive territory twice, most recently attacking this morning's 2147.75 bias-up signal to within 2 ticks. But yesterday's 2143.50 cash session close keeps attracting price back down to it. If, then... Potential for retesting last week's ~2169.00 high, let alone "unfinished business above" at 2175.50, depends on continuing to hold tests of 2138.00-2139.00 support. The problem is that the continued tests are chipping away at support. And now yesterday's traction is mandating morning trending attempts, which chips away at support further. This is payrolls week, a high-profile report that is reliable for influencing price action as much before as after its release, beginning with today's pre-open ADP report. "Wreversal Wednesday" would not be unusual in that context. And it may be the only path up, let alone for avoiding a much more bearish picture. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2148.75 would be likely to trigger the 2147.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2142.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open under 2136.75 would be likely to trigger the 2138.00 bias-down signal.

Post-open follow-through reflects meaningful strength. The open's gap up to 2150.50 extended up to 2154.25. More important than how high is for how long -- not quickly rejecting the opening strength had undermined sellers. A 3-point dip was recovered to fresh highs attacking 2156.00. And the 2153.00 bias-up target was exceeded through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal. Next targeted are 2157.50 and 2160.00. So much buying pressure to absorb yesterday's bearish setup makes its resolution likely to be as bullish as the original setup could have been bearish. That means the morning is now likely to trend up. Not without resistance, twists and turns. But a fresh post-open low should be avoided.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2163.00 2156.50 ...would target  2168.75  2162.25 Bias-down: under  2157.00  2150.50 ...would target 2151.25  2144.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Hovering at the morning's highs. Fluctuating choppily around this morning's 2153.00 bias-up target between 2150.00-2155.00 hasn't really broken out either way. The ascending triangular pattern did eventually break higher at noon. Momentarily. Shallowly. Ranging more narrowly since then has been centered around the morning's 2155.50 high. None of which is a sell signal. The morning's price action wasn't inconsistent with having inverted yesterday's bearish setup, although not much exploited. Now the renewed bias-up signal has lapsed, without creating any required upside objective. But the pattern isn't bearish. Resolving up remains likelier than down. Still, a blip-down may become necessary to stretch the rubber band for snapping back up, especially if not already rallying out of this afternoon's bias environment. Dipping under 2150.50-2151.25 could be too deep of a stretch to snap back up. At least, not before attacking yesterday's lows -- which would risk breaking under them.

Wednesday's session was full of promise. From the traction gained by Tuesday's decline that would produce downtrending action the next morning, to the gradual recovery after gapping up. Even the last hours breakout above 2156.50 was unfulfilling, extending shallowly up to only 2158.00, and then reacted down sharply to 2152.00 through the close. But although that late drop was relatively steep and sizeable for the day, it didn't damage the intraday coiling and pent-up buying pressure. Certainly, the template had been warning the recovery might need a rubber band effect to stretch price down so it could snap back up. But that was earlier, and its late appearance left too little time to attract new sponsorship. If the intraday restrained optimism is pessimistic enough to be bullish from a contrarian perspective, then not gapping down would be likely instead to gap up. Gapping down wouldn't necessarily be bearish, unless gapping under Wednesday's 2149.75 low. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2164.00 2157.50 ...would target  2169.50  2163.00 Bias-down: under  2154.25  2147.75 ...would target 2147.75  2141.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.