Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Both an overnight rally and an opening rally probed above Tuesday afternoon's 3517.00 high, and both reacted down sharply. Wednesday's post-open reaction got to 3501.50, which there was no longer any bullish reason to test. Its next lower objective at 3482.00 was met by noon, and the remaining timing windows all ranged choppily around it. Three tests of 3472.50 each reacted up higher and higher to ultimately attack 3494.00, and still dipped to 3477.00 through the close. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Ranging sideways around 3477.00 suddenly broken lower to probe intraday lows. Bouncing back into the range at midnight was quickly reversed into a downleg that slid relentlessly until testing 3434.00. Its reaction has only consolidated and not yet reversed back up. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Two consecutive downtrending sessions are now greeting the third session sharply lower. The four consecutive uptrending sessions, each having gapped open, seems to have been so long ago. Yet only now is their 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement being tested at the next lower 3535.00 target -- after thoroughly testing the 3482.00 target yesterday. Relentless overnight trending makes the opening 15 minutes predictive for at least the morning, depending on whether reinforcements or counter-trend sponsorship is influential. Even trending straight up post-open could become an isolated corrective bounce like yesterday morning's temporary bounce from the decline's 3501.50 pullback target. That was way back when the decline could still qualify as only a temporary pullback, being likely to retest Monday's 3541.00 high. That scenario had only a little more room down to the 3470.00 area, and only a little more time before its recovery must begin. Now the 3470.00 area is resistance, and its recovery would start to signal the pullback has ended. But lower through the open would likely trend down through the morning, and while that's not yet too late to end the pullback, it would probably be too low. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3460.25 would be likely also to exceed the 3460.50 bias-down target to renew the bias-down signal.

But the open trends up. Relentless overnight trending tested the next lower 3435.00 target. Twice. Their interim high was too shallow to undo the downtrend that greeted the open at 3437.00. The open's blip-down to 3431.50 reacted up sharply to trend up through the first 15 minutes of volatility. This reflects counter-trend sponsorship reversing the trend. And they were rewarded by extending up to 3457.50. That was the 38.2 of the 38.2 gap-to-gap retracement from yesterday's cash session close. At least 1-minute RSI made a lower high on its test. Near-term momentum became seriously jeopardized. In fact, its reaction has now dipped back down to 3438.50. A retest of 3435.00 wouldn't be surprising, since its post-open test was so brief. Also, sometimes the most bullish development during a bias-down environment is to trap sellers. Back above 3448.50 would signal the pullback is already done, and upside momentum has resumed -- next targeting 3464.00. The bias window's exit will tell us the signals for resuming the decline.  

THU P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3466.00 signal would target 3474.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3453.50 signal would target 3443.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3474.75 3466.00 ...would target 3482.75 3474.00 Bias-down: under 3462.00 3453.50 ...would target 3451.50 3443.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE

But still upside potential. The first half-hour's high didn't just touch the 3457.50 38.2 of the 38.2 gap-to-gap retracement. Its resistance launched a pullback down to 3438.50. Despite retracing to within 6 ticks of the open, the bias environment lapsed at fresh post-open highs attacking 3464.00. That rewarded the bullish relentless overnight trending setup, triggered by its first 15 minutes having trended up. Attacking 3464.00 also tested the 61.8 gap-to-gap retracement. Its resistance reacted down to the noon hour's 3448.00 low. Now the afternoon's 3466.00 bias-up signal is being attacked. It's too late to trigger, and too late to invalidate the no-bias. Probing any higher for the next 40 minutes would be no-bias trending that requires being retraced. Nothing requires any greater recovery at any time today. Nothing prevents resuming the decline to lower lows. But closing back above 3466.00 and more so above 3470.50 would be increasingly likely to have finally ended a corrective pullback.

Relentless overnight trending probed the decline's next lower target at 3435.00 and greeted Thursday's open at 3437.00. The open's blip-down to 3431.50 was reversed up into an opening uptrend, triggering the setup's bullish resolution. Its sponsorship attacked 3464.00 by noon. Separately, the balance of the session trended up until filling the gap back to Wednesday's gap by 2 ticks at 3481.00. A last-minute dip closed at 3476.00, but the bullish PM Traction setup had already signaled. Exiting the afternoon bias window above the noon hour, and entering the final hour higher, formed the PM Traction setup. It makes the next morning's bias window likely to trend up. The open may have gapped up or down. The setup is confirmed by trending up through the first 15 minutes. PM Traction's influence is credible if triggered, but meanwhile beware the potential for expiration's wild card not to confirm the setup, or even to invert it. The WedEX setup that finishes forming on Friday already has a bearish basis thanks to the proxy of Thursday's gap down. Trending down Friday would be bearish for Monday. Otherwise, yet another consecutive weekend might be greeted by firming or backing-and-filling. A retest of Monday's 3541.00 high remains the likely objective, if not higher. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP: above 3484.25 signal would target 3495.00. BIAS-DOWN: under 3467.00 signal would target 3458.00. NO-BIAS: between both signals. FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3492.75 3484.25 ...would target 3503.50 3495.00 Bias-down: under 3475.50 3467.00 ...would target 3466.50 3458.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE