DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&ADay Trading Pre-Open Plan - 7:32 AM
Edit
its probe of new highs, which was reversed substantially. And it was reversed in time to greet Monday's open back at the 3141.25 "earlier Globex low" before Monday's open. The bearish Globex-flip setup reinforced taking an immediate sell signal that dropped 35 points post-open to attack 3110.00 at the morning's low. Flat-to-higher ranging through the afternoon bias environment reached 3124.50, far short of rejecting the decline's momentum, before reversing to 3113.50 through the close.
Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex)
Monday's late retracement extended through the Globex open to a fresh low at 3108.00. Its reaction attacked 3122.00 before midnight and after it, which could have formed a bullish Isolation setup if maintained. But the night was young. Already ranging flat-to-lower through Europe's opens, a Trump press conference generated a China trade headline that triggered an 18-point plunge to 3101.50. Its reaction has bounced up to 3107.50.
If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording)
Not rejecting Monday morning's decline overnight had made its influence likely to repeat Tuesday morning. The leg's next likely objective at 3100.00-3103.00 is already being met overnight. It was in reaction to a China trade headline, and correcting it by 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} would could remain in negative territory, so I don't anticipate another Isolation setup without another headline catalyst. A post-open bounce would be possible if 3100.00-3103.00 is holding a post-open test.
First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters)
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 3109.00 would be likely to trigger the 3110.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3111.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.
Market is Open, Here's What to Expect - 10:31 AM
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Gapping open at 3084.75 soon slid to 3078.00-3080.00, which stopped the selling instantly. Its reaction up tested 3086.00 before retracing entirely, ultimately forming a Descending Triangle.
The triangle's break plunged to 3069.50, and then bounced right back up to 3078.00-3080.00. Now another bounce attacking the 3084.75 open has dipped back down to 3078.00, again.
There's no more bites at the recovery apple after actually touching the 3084.75 open. There's no bearish reason to revisit it. Either this morning launches a corrective bounce targeting 3100.00-3103.00, or the next line of support at 3066.00 will be tested.
Tonight's Day Trading Strategy - 11:59 AM
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Mid-Day Market Thoughts - 1:50 PM
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The narrowing range's rising bottoms formed an Ascending Triangle that broke higher to come within 1 tick of this afternoon's 3086.25 bias-up signal just in time to invoke the grace period. The wide intraday range entitles the signal to that benefit of the doubt.
Extending higher has triggered "late bias-up," its 3093.00 bias-up target is in-play. Its test could include the 3100.00-3103.00 area, too.
Regardless, this morning's ranging formed an anchor that makes a recovery unlikely until its low is probed, presumably down to 3066.00. Meanwhile, having failed to attract reinforcements to extend the decline this morning, this afternoon's fresh post-open highs are likely seeking stronger-handed sellers to launch the next downleg.
Overbought RSIs at 3089.50 probably prevent a reaction down from yet extending. But back under 3084.25 would suggest the decline is already resuming anyway.
Bias Wrap - 4:32 PM
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soon bounced to attack 3122.00. Little did the market know what awaited it. The next lower objective at 3100.00-3103.00 was already likely, but it was met by an 18-point plunge during a Trump presser in London. Failing to hold that test through the open next targeted 3078.00-3080.00, and the 3084.75 open quickly met it. Fluctuating around it down to 3069.50 was eventually retraced to trigger bias-up, and its 3093.00 target was probed momentarily by 2 points. No "unfinished business" was left outstanding.
Extending any higher would next target 3100.00-3103.00, which coincidentally is the 38.2-61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} Gap2Gap retracement back to Monday's close. This is the minimum resistance to recover through a relevant timing window to assume a bigger reversal is underway. Which would be entirely credible, having closed at or above the two-week old Complex Triangle's low to neutralize one of its downside attractions. Otherwise, a much more substantial decline is underway.
Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Strategy - 5:55 PM
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Overlapping critical support.
The pre-open update noted the next lower relevant attraction being 3078.00-3080.00.
TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
3086.75
3086.25
...would target
3093.50
3093.00
Bias-down: under
3075.25
3074.75
...would target
3067.25
3066.75
Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP
.
BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Hunting for sellers at higher levels?
This morning's bias environment ranged choppily around the critical 3078.00-3080.00 area.
Monday's 3114.50 close had extended down immediately after the Globex to 3108.00, and
WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
3096.00
3095.50
...would target
3103.50
3103.00
Bias-down: under
3088.50
3088.00
...would target
3081.50
3081.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED
.
BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.