DAILY SCHEDULE
First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<==
Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&APre-Open Stock Forecast - 7:54 AM
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Stock Market Morning Strategy - 10:55 AM
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Tonight's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 11:59 AM
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Stock Market Mid-Day Trends - 1:37 PM
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Bias Summary - 4:32 PM
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Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.
Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.
Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 5:55 PM
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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.
Open's surge outlasts WedEX return.
The open gave retail trades a chance to express the same sentiment that had driven the overnight rally. Ranging flat-to-higher around 2690.00-2693.00 into the open was replaced suddenly by surging to 2698.00. Backing-and-filling since then has retraced the open's surge down to 2693.00.
The opening 15 minutes of volatility trended up. This invalidates the bearish WedEX. Trending back down is still possible, even throughout the bias environment as the setup would. But it won't be because of the WedEX influence. Similarly, trending back down through the bias environment is unlikely.
Retracement is still possible. Ending the session much lower is less likely, although still possible, while some temporary intraday dip is likelier. Currently testing 2695.00 support, its break's minimum objective is to test 2688.00.
Back above 2697.00 would target new highs, to 2699.75 and then 2703.00. I'm not going to dismiss the potential for an already excessively optimistic rally to exhibit yet more excessive optimism without an interim pullback. I can only caution that its presumed catalyst is vulnerable to headline risk at any time.
MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2695.00
2698.25
...would target
2699.75
2702.75
Bias-down: under
2688.25
2691.25
...would target
2684.00
2687.25
Signal status: NO-BIAS
FAQ
NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.
Open's surge has yet to extend.
The open's surge to 2698.00 was retraced to test 2693.50. Repeatedly. Its 3-minute low essentially held, and 2693.50 is still an active inflection point. Its break would likely test the 2692.50 opening print, which would be normal to serve as support. Its test as support would likely be probed down to 2688.00, so recovering its test back above 2693.50 would marginalize sellers.
That bullish scenario is in place of this morning's, which was signaled back above 2696.00. Its signal is still in-play. Extending to within 1 tick of the open's 2698.00 high should have extended higher to 2699.75-2700.75 or 2703.00. But the noon hour and its exit is still ranging around 2696.00.
This afternoon's no-bias environment could probe fresh session highs, and fulfill upside potential. Optimism seems excessive ahead of tomorrow's tax reform vote, and amid the interim headline risk. But the later the origin of a downdraft without yet probing this morning's high, the shallower and/or briefer it's likely to be. A more credible downdraft would follow fresh highs.
Sponsorship of relentless overnight trending tends either to be overcome through the open, or not. One But extending the overnight trend isn't required. Monday's gap up wasn't overcome through the open, so the session could have extended higher, even though it did not.
Such restrained optimism could be constructive, but at new highs I suspect that buying pressure is waning. Similar to Monday not being required to extend higher, waning upside doesn't require reversing down. This is more of a re-positioning window. And probing any higher would be vulnerable to failure.
Probing higher before trying to reverse down would be distributive, testing 2699.75-2700.785 or 2703.00. Dipping overnight to 2688.00 could neutralize sellers to enable fresh highs. But breaking under 2688.00 without yet probing above Monday's high is unlikely to trend down.
The path among those levels will diminish or deplete the excessive optimism ahead of Tuesday's weighty event, the tax reform vote. Of course, there's more influencing the market than that, but it probably won't seem that way into and out of passing the vote, or the vote's delay, or its failure.
TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET)
SPX
ES
Bias-up: above
2694.50
2697.75
...would target
2700.00
2703.00
Bias-down: under
2685.75
2688.75
...would target
2680.50
2683.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS
FAQ
NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN
INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2
1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.