Pre-Open Stock Forecast - 7:54 AM

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Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... After having trended down into Thursday's close, Friday's open was greeted by gapping up above Thursday afternoon's 2664.00 bias environment high. This forms a "session-long rally" setup, which extended higher throughout the day. "Unfinished business above" at 2677.75 was neutralized on the way to 2682.75. The position-squaring window dropped 8 points to probe under the afternoon bias environment's 2677.25 low, fulfilling the bearish WedEX's influence, barely. Surging into expiration's settlement recovered back to session highs. Overnight action's new info... It's being attributed to anticipation that tomorrow's tax reform vote will pass, which of course isn't exactly fresh news. Whatever its catalyst, Sunday night's open surged to new highs attacking 2686.00, 12 points above Friday's late dip low. Extending higher relentlessly is still printing fresh highs, now attacking 2693.00. This is a "new Globex trend extreme" that would require intraday retest, eventually, but often done the same day. If, then... Friday's late buying pressure gained no traction for the effort. Gapping to a fresh extreme can compensate by proxy, but that's if the gap up is maintained. This morning's open will face two headwinds. The first being a bearish WedEX, which made a brief, minimally sufficient appearance Friday afternoon against the momentum of an otherwise dominant session-long rally. WedEX's next influence is Monday morning, which is currently being fattened up for the kill. The other headwind is new: relentless overnight trending is vulnerable to reversing at the open, more so on Mondays. Not quite likely, but vulnerable. Thanks to the overnight rally, there's now plenty of room to expend selling pressure all morning without reversing the uptrend -- perhaps also while remaining postured for fulfilling the new trend extreme close that Friday's close all but requires. Not in the category of headwinds, but also to consider, is the overnight rally's potentially excessive optimism, which can be bearish from a contrarian perspective. A sideways glance from Marco Rubio could be the prick that pops the balloon, again. But if sellers aren't obviously in control coming out of the open, then the squeeze could accelerate exponentially. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2687.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2684.50 bias-up target through 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 2695.00 and 2699.75. Phonetic dictation... good morning and welcome it is Monday it's time for Monday's Morning Market to our this is a complete week even though Friday is all but a truncated session it doesn't close any earlier but it will thin out from travel so with that seasonal bullishness just ahead if the markets going to put in any any kind of a decisive or substantial deep kind of pulled back it's going to have to start not nominally to new highs and it has done so despite one and now to have one of those is the specialized applications one is Friday afternoon and one is Monday morning not before Friday afternoon Friday morning not before or at night after Friday afternoon until Monday morning that is Sunday night is it relevant to the wet X which is a bearish indicator in this case which can't be inverted it can only be invalidated it was influentialis the high print of the opening 15 minutes until that succeeded by another a higher print that's going to be vulnerable to reversing it's and can be as bearish to expend all available buying pressure or could spend relentlessly buying pressure through the entirety of the opening 15 minutes as bearish as not maintaining a higher high but as long as they have it in 15 minutes so longgold which is held 12:55 pull back both Thursday and back hopefully one as well and then Friday is trying to exploit that overnight silver as well which held 1585 and closed basically at around 1605 on Friday trying to exploit that Longmont not much with in order to maintainHenry's near term hey I'm in the year did not confirm a close up of 8888 still doesn't get any kind of benefit of the doubt for having reverse the trend without cuz you love 8920 and then the Bitcoin futures so I still don't have from qcharts the over night they're having some issues and this is with CME now starting to trade but you can see our Buy Signal our bar setup for long entry on closing above 16/8 was basically basically LeapFrog over its Target targets .

Stock Market Morning Strategy - 10:55 AM

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Open's surge outlasts WedEX return. The open gave retail trades a chance to express the same sentiment that had driven the overnight rally. Ranging flat-to-higher around 2690.00-2693.00 into the open was replaced suddenly by surging to 2698.00. Backing-and-filling since then has retraced the open's surge down to 2693.00. The opening 15 minutes of volatility trended up. This invalidates the bearish WedEX. Trending back down is still possible, even throughout the bias environment as the setup would. But it won't be because of the WedEX influence. Similarly, trending back down through the bias environment is unlikely. Retracement is still possible. Ending the session much lower is less likely, although still possible, while some temporary intraday dip is likelier. Currently testing 2695.00 support, its break's minimum objective is to test 2688.00. Back above 2697.00 would target new highs, to 2699.75 and then 2703.00. I'm not going to dismiss the potential for an already excessively optimistic rally to exhibit yet more excessive optimism without an interim pullback. I can only caution that its presumed catalyst is vulnerable to headline risk at any time.

Tonight's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 11:59 AM

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MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2695.00 2698.25 ...would target  2699.75  2702.75 Bias-down: under  2688.25 2691.25 ...would target  2684.00 2687.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Stock Market Mid-Day Trends - 1:37 PM

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Open's surge has yet to extend. The open's surge to 2698.00 was retraced to test 2693.50. Repeatedly. Its 3-minute low essentially held, and 2693.50 is still an active inflection point. Its break would likely test the 2692.50 opening print, which would be normal to serve as support. Its test as support would likely be probed down to 2688.00, so recovering its test back above 2693.50 would marginalize sellers. That bullish scenario is in place of this morning's, which was signaled back above 2696.00. Its signal is still in-play. Extending to within 1 tick of the open's 2698.00 high should have extended higher to 2699.75-2700.75 or 2703.00. But the noon hour and its exit is still ranging around 2696.00. This afternoon's no-bias environment could probe fresh session highs, and fulfill upside potential. Optimism seems excessive ahead of tomorrow's tax reform vote, and amid the interim headline risk. But the later the origin of a downdraft without yet probing this morning's high, the shallower and/or briefer it's likely to be. A more credible downdraft would follow fresh highs.

Bias Summary - 4:32 PM

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Sponsorship of relentless overnight trending tends either to be overcome through the open, or not. One But extending the overnight trend isn't required. Monday's gap up wasn't overcome through the open, so the session could have extended higher, even though it did not. Such restrained optimism could be constructive, but at new highs I suspect that buying pressure is waning. Similar to Monday not being required to extend higher, waning upside doesn't require reversing down. This is more of a re-positioning window. And probing any higher would be vulnerable to failure. Probing higher before trying to reverse down would be distributive, testing 2699.75-2700.785 or 2703.00. Dipping overnight to 2688.00 could neutralize sellers to enable fresh highs. But breaking under 2688.00 without yet probing above Monday's high is unlikely to trend down. The path among those levels will diminish or deplete the excessive optimism ahead of Tuesday's weighty event, the tax reform vote. Of course, there's more influencing the market than that, but it probably won't seem that way into and out of passing the vote, or the vote's delay, or its failure.
    Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 5:55 PM

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TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2694.50 2697.75 ...would target  2700.00  2703.00 Bias-down: under  2685.75  2688.75 ...would target  2680.50  2683.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ NEW! Flowcharts: Bias-UP // Bias-DN INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.