Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday's gap down to 2490.50 was in recovery mode from having attacked Tuesday night's 2452.00 low down to 2462.50. Its blip-up to 2493.00 began collapsing almost immediately to probe fresh lows down to 2447.00. Recovering almost all of it by noon proved only temporary, as the balance of the session trended back down. The close was overlapping the morning's low down to 2443.00, after having stopped optimistically short of even touching it during the final hour. Overnight action's new info... Firming through the Globex open up to 2456.00 was reversed to probe yet more fresh lows down to 2438.50. But only temporarily, as firming again was consolidating up to 2462.00 by midnight. And that soon resumed its recovery to attack yesterday's highs up to 2487.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Stopping optimistically short of retesting Thursday morning's low had made the overnight dip likely. Its probe was relatively shallow and brief before reversing back up into Thursday's range. Although just another version of optimism, it hasn't been ineffectual. That hasn't prevented rallying so much into so weighty of a report as the Employment Situation report. It's yet another version of optimism, and potentially bearish from a contrarian perspective. Potentially. Maintaining the open back above Thursday afternoon's ~2474.00 high could form a "session-long rally" setup. Meanwhile, touching yesterday morning's 2489.00 high during the open would require its recovery to be maintained, too. Rejecting either setup, or both, would have a lot of room to expend selling pressure before challenging yesterday's lows. But a deep enough retracement this morning would remain vulnerable to extending down into the afternoon. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] No preliminary indications are considered ahead of Employment Situation reports.

Surging back to prior failure levels. This morning's Employment Situation report was greeted by an 11-point pullback to 2476.00, that was firming back up to 2480.50. The knee-jerk reaction attacked 2470.00 a couple of times, while consolidating more and more narrowly around 2480.50. Opening higher soon extended back up through overnight highs. Touching yesterday's 2489.00 intraday high maintained its recovery through the opening 15 minutes of volatility to avoid undermining the rally's sponsorship. Soon 2503.00 was being tested. Another reaction down had potential to form a temporary correction. Temporary, because maintaining the open above yesterday afternoon's bias environment high has formed a "session-long rally" setup. The reaction's correction lasted almost an entire minute as Fed Chair Powell said something hawkish that triggered a 6-point spike down to 2487.50.

Powell kept speaking, and subsequent headlines were more rally-friendly, if not actually dovish. A 34-point surge is just tested the past week's highs around 2521.00.

Reacting down to 2408.50 could develop into a deeper pullback -- fulfilling not the target but the purpose of the earlier pullback that Powell's first headline had hijacked -- now targeting 2492.50-2495.50. Back above 2515.00 first could resume the rally, targeting 2525.25.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2525.75 2526.00 ...would target 2534.50 2534.75 Bias-down: under 2507.50 2508.00 ...would target 2499.75 2500.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Session-long rally already recovers its likely objectives. Having trended down into yesterday's close, exiting the open above yesterday afternoon's bias-up signal formed a "session-long rally" setup. So, every timing window should probe the prior timing window's high. Usually there's one exception, and usually it's the noon hour.

The noon hour probed fresh highs, so the exception will be either the afternoon bias environment or the final hour.

The bias environment is currently dipping, but it's no too far removed from the high to probe it. Not probing a fresh high by 2:30 would be likely to probe fresh highs before the close. Probing fresh highs before 2:30 would be free to reverse down through the close. Meanwhile, the room for noise above the past week's highs up to 2525.25 has been exceeded up to 2539.25. Closing above 2525.25 would put into play 2548.00-2555.00. Closing under 2490.00 would reverse today's rally.

Each timing window of Friday's session-long rally probed its prior timing window's high. The usual noon hour exception probed fresh highs, but the afternoon bias environment did not. Which made the final hour likely to probe at least the afternoon bias environment's high. But the final hour did not probe fresh highs. Momentum had died out, exiting the bias environment within the noon hour's range, and entering the final hour within the bias environment's range. Successful session-long signals tend to extend through the following morning. Similarly, the missing window tends to be fulfilled the following morning, aggressively to compensate for the delay. The burden of proof is definitely on sellers. Having closed above 2525.25, the next higher objective in-play is 2548.00-2555.00. Closing any higher would then target 2606.00, all within the context of being a temporary bear market rally. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2536.75 2537.00 ...would target 2543.50 2543.75 Bias-down: under 2524.00 2524.50 ...would target 2515.50 2516.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.