Day Trading Trading Signals - 01-11-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Probing under Monday's 2263.50 intraday low was isolated to the overnight by recovering it before Tuesday's open. Which would have been bullish the recovery were maintained post-open, but it wasn't. The open's dip retested the 2259.50 overnight low. That bearish setup didn't prevent rallying back into positive territory at 2274.00, but it did prevent maintaining the rally. Tuesday afternoon retraced retraced it back down to the opening range's upper-end at 2263.25. A late bounce was also retraced down to 2263.25. Overnight action's new info... Initially ranging sideways around the close up to 2265.50, a dip soon attacked the 2259.50 intraday low to within 1 tick. Ranging sideways at the lows through Europe's opens finally bounced back to the open's 2265.50 high. And slightly back above Tuesday's intraday low. If, then... The upper-end of Tuesday's opening range was retraced by the afternoon's drop. That's not much of a consequence for weak-handed sponsorship. Probing under the retracement's 2263.25 low was still likely, as was retesting Tuesday morning's 2259.50 low. Both were done Tuesday night, essentially, as last night's low stopped 1 tick "optimistically short" of the prior lows. Not being a new low, opening positively this morning's can't isolate it back above Tuesday afternoon's 2263.25 low. It's still early enough to recover further, and to open back above yesterday's late 2269.25 bounce. That could be rewarded by extending to 2272.00 and then to new highs. Otherwise, an actual fresh low at 2257.50 is likely. And Tuesday's intraday bounce may have lengthened the timing of this pullback's low beyond this morning. As well, its likelier target is at least 2247.50, if not also 2235.25. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2265.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2261.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2258.50 would be likely to trigger bias-down.

Bias-up signal tested, thrice. Held, twice. Rallying this morning required buyers to be productive almost immediately. Even that could have been absorbed by sellers, so long as the 2267.25 bias-up signal didn't trigger. And especially so long as the bounce was reversed back under 2266.00. The open didn't firm immediately, but it firmed. And it tested 2267.25, then reversed down to 2264.00 as no-bias was triggered. Putting into play the offsetting test of the 2261.25 bias-down signal didn't prevent retesting 2267.25. It held again through 10:30. The no-bias environment triggered, and avoided invalidation, but not for lack of proximity. The 2267.25 bias-up signal must now define this window's upper-end. So, probing above it would be no-bias trending.

It's now being pierced by almost 2 points, but not yet above its 3-minute high

I'm willing to give the fresh high some benefit of the doubt for staging another detour like yesterday morning. Regardless, I would be ready to reverse short back under 2266.00, at the latest.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2276.75 2271.50 ...would target  2282.75  2277.50 Bias-down: under  2267.25  2262.00 ...would target 2262.00  2256.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Unexpected comments trigger massive volatility. Trump commented this morning on drugs costs. It was immediately influential and very productive, sending price down quickly and a lot, from testing 2266.00 down to 2255.00.. It was also arbitrary, and ultimately recovered back to its origin. A bigger detour like yesterday morning's bounce was trying to trigger when the comments were made. The drop's complete recovery didn't resume the rally attempt where left off. Instead another drop has triggered (and already fulfilled) this afternoon's 2262.00 and 2256.75 bias-down parameters. Recovering Trump's artificially-induced downleg was all but required. Resuming the leg preceding it is not required, at all. But it can be. The morning's 2261.25 bias objective was fulfilled by the Trump plunge along with its 2257.50 bias-down target. This afternoon's bias-down already met its 2256.75 target. And the pullback had potential to bottom Wednesday morning. We still don't know whether Tuesday morning's bounce may have extended the timing for a pullback low to Thursday afternoon. Or whether its objective may have extended down to 2247.50, if not also 2235.25. Any fresh low would suggest as much. But rallying this afternoon instead of extending the pullback would suggest it had ended, with new highs in-play.

The recovery from this afternoon's 2255.75-2256.75 lows extended higher through the close, and attacked 2272.00 to within 1 tick. That level had been the likely objective of Tuesday afternoon's false break higher. It was the potential attraction to rallying Tuesday night, had a rally ever gotten underway. More important than resistance, it is the delineation between rallying to new highs, and rejecting new highs. If ever new highs above 2278.00 were tested, then closing any day back under 2272.00 would be another signal of a top forming. There's still a new trend high close likely in the mix, but the market usually finds a way to satisfy all requirements before launching a reversal. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2278.25 2273.00 ...would target 2283.50 2278.25 Bias-down: under 2269.25 2264.00 ...would target 2263.50 2258.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.