VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: WED P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Pre-Open Market Open - 7:16 AM
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Previously : Flat-to-lower ranging overnight resisted by Mon's 3914 close later spiked to 3892 before Powell's benign remarks triggered a relief rally. Surging post-open to 3935 triggered a bias-up that was invalidated on the way back down to 3897. The balance of the bias window's bounce extended through the close up to 3944.
Overnight price points : Tue's last upleg extended to 3947 and hovered through midnight. A brief dip greeted Europe's opens at 3935 and soon surged to fresh highs at 3955. Its consolidation is supported by the earlier range.
Catalysts : No high-profile reports until Thu's CPI, 3-day weekend approaching.
Setups/Patterns : 61.8% retrace... Mon's overbought RSIs.
Their influences : Mon's high to Tue's pre-open low was retraced by 61.8% at Tue's closing high, now being probed but so far only overnight... Still in the orbit of Mon's 3974 high.
Premise : It's now even clearer that Tue morning's bias-up invalidation was an anomaly or rogue leg, very likely on-track to retrace Mon's 3974 high, and potentially extending through 4000.
Alternative : So far only touching and not yet actually probing the 3954 bias-up signal may fail to trigger it, if not also put into play a test of its offsetting 3933 bias-down signal.
Levels : UP: 3946, 3977, 4008… DOWN: 3920, 3874, 3841.
Stock Market Opening Update - 10:58 AM
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Previously : Tue's last upleg extended to 3947 and hovered through midnight. A brief dip greeted Europe's opens at 3935 and soon surged to fresh highs at 3955. Its consolidation is supported by the earlier range.
New price points : Eking higher suddenly surged 2-3 minutes pre-open to warn that buyers had become excessively optimistic. Extending post-open to 3967 quickly defined a range back down to 3954 that overlapped all of the first hour's remaining 15-minute checkpoints, lacking any momentum.
Catalysts : No high-profile reports until Thu's CPI, 3-day weekend approaching.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-UP... Mon's overbought RSIs... Symmetrical Triangle.
Their influences : The 3968 bias-up target is in-play and hasn't been met since triggering, but already having attacked it to within 3-6 ticks dismisses it from becoming unfinished business if not actually met... Still in the orbit of Mon's 3974 high... The first hour formed a Symmetrical Triangle that tends to break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction.
Triggers/Tactics : Greeting the open with a last-minute probe of fresh overnight highs is very often a warning that sponsorship has become impatient and weak-handed. It's not necessarily bearish, but it often needs to introduce a discount to attract new strong-handed buyers. The first hour's Symmetrical Triangle suggests as much. A dip to 3948 or 3944 may suffice to stretch the rubber band for snapping up to fresh highs. Mon's 3974 high up to 3977 and potentially extending through 4000 would be in-play.
Alternative : Anxiousness ahead of Thu's pre-open CPI may force a deeper pullback to Tue's 3935 lower prior highs, where anything deeper could become bearish.
Levels : UP: 3946, 3977, 4008… DOWN: 3920, 3874, 3841.
Tonight's Day Trading Predictions - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3968, targeting 3983.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3952, targeting 3939.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Stock Market Mid-Day Trends - 1:42 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels
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Previously : Extending Tue's last upleg to 3947 and hovering through midnight resumed rallying after Europe's opens. Pre-open excessive optimism killed upside momentum, and a Symmetrical Triangle formed through the first hour.
New price points : A dip to 3949 stretched the rubber band to snap back up and resume the rally. Overbought RSIs at Mon's 3974 high requiring a retest were probed up to 3978. Its reaction is consolidating back down to 3965.
Catalysts : CPI tomorrow, 3-day weekend approaching.
Setups/Patterns : LATE BIAS-UP... Mon's overbought RSIs... Symmetrical Triangle.
Their influences : Mon's 3974 high had required being retested, which was likely to visit 3977, and is now neutralized for being probed by 1 point... The first hour's Symmetrical Triangle that tends to break falsely in one direction before reversing more substantially in the opposite direction has now fulfilled this reversal.
Triggers/Tactics : The open's excessive optimism and first hour's Symmetrical Triangle had warned that weak-handed sponsorship required a corrective dip, and its strong-handed buyers are now fulfilled. The rally can extend organically if expectations are for CPI to miss estimates. The open's gap proxy has higher attractions, including the 3983 bias-up target, then 3989 and 3999, with potential to 4008.
Alternative : Even if higher highs were assured, that may be difficult today as anxiousness ahead of tomorrow's pre-open CPI can replace the uptrending with flat-to-lower ranging.
Levels : UP: 3946, 3977, 4008… DOWN: 3853, 3920, 3874.
Market Summary - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Tue's last upleg quickly extended to hover at 3947 through midnight. A pullback rallied out of Europe's opens, but last-minute pre-open optimism signaled the end of upside momentum. The first hour's Symmetrical Triangle corrected to 3949 to resume the rally, which extended through Wed's close to 3991.
Catalysts : CPI, 3-day weekend approaching.
Setups/Patterns : Mon's Overbought RSIs, Pre-CPI optimism.
Their influences : The required retest of Mon's 3974 high was neutralized... Trending into a known event can fully discount it so the reaction is contrarian.
Premise : Anxiousness ahead of CPI was limited to Wed's P.M. bias window. But expectations for the headline to miss, and an outstanding bias-up target kept upside momentum alive. The 200% gap proxy and Head & Shoulders continuation pattern targeting 3988-3989 were met and overlapped into the close, satisfying more buying pressure. Buyers can still be likely to react favorably if overnight trends up, too, with potential to 4008.
Alternative : A negative reaction to CPI has room down to 3935 if not also to 3927 before becoming more than just a corrective dip. Even an initially favorable reaction would be vulnerable to reversing down from above 4000.
Levels : UP: 3946, 3977, 3989, 4008… DOWN: 3848-53, 3920, 3874.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Plan - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3994, targeting 4008.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3981, targeting 3968.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.