Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday's session wasn't much different than Friday. Both sessions can be defined as gapping down and then trending back up. Monday's gap down to 2575.50 reacted down 4 points but stopped more than 3 points above Sunday night's low, and quickly reversed up to 2588.00. The impatient optimism inhibited reinforcements, and its early momentum peak barely attacked 2590.00 during the afternoon. A late dip touched 2580.00 into the close. Overnight action's new info... Globex initially ranged narrowly at 2580.00 but soon began trending back up. Hovering pessimistically short of Monday's highs suddenly spiked up to 2595.00, and ranged flat-to-higher through midnight up to 2598.00. Another spike up pierced 2600.00, and all recent highs. Almost all of which has been traced. Reversing down into and out of Europe's opens eventually attacked 2585.00. Its retest launched a bounce back above yesterday's highs to 2592.00, which just collapsed 10 points to probe back under 2582.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Throughout the past week's ranging, this stage of the pattern has remained likely to probe fresh highs. Structurally, at least probing above prior highs. Calculably, to at least 2606.00. Overnight would suffice, but intraday is always preferable. Friday's failed attempt at completely recovering from gapping down began undermining the likelihood of fresh highs with a vulnerability to just collapsing into a new downleg. More so after Monday's similar pattern. Last night's action isn't optimal, but could suffice for a fresh high, and the pattern remains vulnerable to collapse. Not already collapsing into Tuesday's open remains likelier to probe fresh highs, perhaps also 2606.00. Meanwhile, the overnight round-trip is threatening the 2580.00 earlier Globex low, after having probed above the prior session's high, which could form a bearish Globex-flip setup. (I describe the Globex-flip setup in the Market Tour.) First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2590.75 would be likely to trigger the 2588.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2584.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Upside target met, meets downside reaction. Retracing the overnight 20-point rally to 2600.25 had come within 1 tick of the 2580.00 earlier Globex low. Before the open. The open was greeted 5 points higher, making the Globex-flip setup unlikely to try forming. Immediately rallying post-open became a Running Correction as overnight highs were recovered. It launched a surge to 2607.00, fulfilling the rally's next higher objective at 2606.00. A collapse began several minutes later and extended to retrace the Running Correction's 2593.00 low. Bias-up triggered easily. But renewing the signal above its 2595.75 bias-up target failed at 10:15, despite having probed it by 11 points just several minutes earlier. This is still a bias-up environment, so the bias-up target can be exceeded again and the rally could even resume. But either is always difficult when buyers have gotten ahead of themselves.

We've expected a fresh high to test 2606.00, which it did. We've expected that probing fresh highs would be tenuous if attempted, which it was and it is. No matter how much we expect that to result in a peak, nothing prevents trying to probe higher and delaying a reversal down.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2608.25 2608.50 ...would target 2615.25 2615.50 Bias-down: under 2594.75 2595.00 ...would target 2587.75 2588.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Fresh highs retesting the rally's target. The open's surge to 2606.00 had reacted down to test 2593.00. That reaction down overlapped the morning's 2595.75 bias-up target at 10:15 to avoid renewing the bias-up signal. It was still a bias-up environment, but that was also a pretty significant reversal. Reinforcements were inhibited, and the balance of the morning ranged sideways. Extending higher into the noon hour probed fresh highs attacking 1614.00. Its reaction down to 2605.00 was still overlapping this afternoon's 2608.50 bias-up signal at 1:20. And it was still being overlapped at 1:30. This is a noN-bias environment -- no requirement for the bias-up signal to hold its test, and no requirement for its 2615.50 bias-up target to be met. Back above 2611.50 would signal that upside momentum had resumed, presumably to test the 2615.50 bias-up target anyway. Potentially, there is also room for noise above 2606.00 up to 2626.00 before beginning to suggest that 2656.00 may come into play. Back under 2601.50 would signal another attempt to reject today's test of 2606.00.

Prior highs were finally probed on Tuesday. Not only by the unimpressive 3-tick fresh high at 2600.25 overnight. And not just its impressive intraday retest after having been retraced back down to 2580.25 before Tuesday's open. Prior highs were probed intraday up to almost 2614.00. And another 20-point dip to 2594.00 was recovered almost entirely to within 2 points of 2614.00. The rally's 2606.00 calculable objective is met. Still overlapping it during the 3:37-3:52 position-squaring window negates any predictive value from closing above it. Rather than requiring a test of its room for noise up to 2626.00 or putting into play 2656.00, there only remains room for noise up to 2626.00. Meanwhile, having met 2606.00, the pattern's vulnerability to a collapse is at its greatest. And already starting to trend down overnight would be valid. Not yet reversing down by Wednesday afternoon would start making the rally's next higher objective at 2656.00 likelier. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2613.00 2613.25 ...would target 2620.50 2620.75 Bias-down: under 2603.25 2603.50 ...would target 2595.00 2595.25 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.