Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's drop from 3337.50 down to 3321.50 never tried recovering overnight, which ranged sideways between 3313.00-3321.00. Holding an overnight test of 3308.00-3311.00 had contained the holiday weekend's pullback. Holding its test again could avoid a deeper pullback to 3295.00-3298.00. Thursday's gap down collapsed to 3301.25, and then ranged widely through the noon hour up to 3315.00. The afternoon's bias-up triggered, and the afternoon rallied through the overnight highs and into positive territory up to 3327.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Closing yesterday back above 3318.00-3320.00 had indicated that its test of 3308.00-3311.00 as support had held. The Globex open quickly confirmed by spiking up to 3332.00. And that was it, ranging sideways back down to 3325.00. Europe's opens were greeted at this morning's 3329.25 bias-up signal, which surged for an hour up to 3337.00 -- within 2 ticks of Wednesday morning's high. Its reaction has been testing 3331.00 as support. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Will today defy the recent pattern? First, Wednesday's intraday high wasn't maintained above the prior two sessions range, avoiding a breakout. Second, yesterday's intraday break under that same range also avoided a breakout, in the opposite direction. Extending last night's rally to new highs intraday could still be sucked back into this week's range -- otherwise, holding up through the open will give buyers a benefit of the doubt. Losing upside momentum through the open would make another pullback likely. That is a function of Friday Factors, and the weekend's fast-approaching illiquidity. Reacting down again would have room to 3316.50 without damaging Thursday's recovery, either delaying the rally until next week, or else becoming a deeper pullback to 3295.00-3298.00. Meanwhile, two setups from last week still require at least one more new trend high close, which would further entrench the rally if produced today. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) Exiting the open at 9:45 above 3331.00 would be likely to trigger the 3329.25 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 3336.00 would be likely also to exceed the 3334.50 bias-up target at 10:15 to renew the bias-up signal, next targeting 3342.50. Exiting the open under 3327.25 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up.

Paradigm downshift. Rallying to within 2 ticks of Wednesday morning's 3337.50 high had all but assured actually probing it. This morning. Perhaps even a new high close to fulfill unfinished business above, and to further entrench the rally. But the 3331.50 open barely blipped-up before extending down. Through the 3329.50 bias-up signal, already testing the 3319.50 bias-down signal. Not triggering bias-up put into play a test of the bias-down signal. So, bias-down, bias-down target met?

Actually, the drop extended down to 3316.25. And the 3319.50 bias-down signal wasn't being overlapped at 10:30. Too late to trigger, but in time to invalidate the 10:15 signal.

The 3334.50 bias-up target was touched only pre-open. Otherwise, its intraday rejection would also put into play an offsetting test of the 3313.25 bias-down target.

Pullbacks have room down to 3316.00 without rejecting yesterday's recovery. Already reacting up 4 points from 3316.25 validates the area's influence. Oversold RSIs at 3316.25 require its eventual retest, perhaps down to 3313.25. But this morning's drop must be contained if not also reversed to avoid reinstating a deeper pullback to 3295.00-3298.00.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3316.00 3315.25 ...would target 3322.25 3321.50 Bias-down: under 3306.75 3306.00 ...would target 3298.75 3298.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Extended pullback target met. Yesterday's recovery of 3318.00-3320.00 signaled the 3308.00-3311.00 support test had held. Its reward was to retrace the downleg's origin, which last night did to within 2 ticks at 3337.00. Its reaction trended down through the open. A pullback could test 3316.00 and still be likely to resume the rally, which the first hour's low attacked to within 1 tick. Back above 3320.00 signaled the drop was recovering. And it had extended to 3322.50 before a coronavirus headline stole the show. Breaking back under 3316.00 opened the door to the next lower pullback objective at 3295.00-3298.00. It was tested down to 3293.75. Another bounce during the noon hour got to 3306.00. But trending down since the noon hour's exit is extending to 3291.00, targeting 3288.00 and then 3282.00. There's not much intraday support any lower. Back above 3299.25 would start to signal another recovery attempt underway.

Thursday's 3326.00 close was 5-7 points higher than necessary to indicate that 3308.00-3311.00 support had held. Thursday night's high retested Wednesday's 3337.50 high to within 2 ticks. That was 2 ticks short of fulfilling the support test's likely reward, but the 3331.50 open was still in proximity to probe new highs intraday. Instead a post-open pullback tested 3316.00 which still maintained the traction gained by Thursday's recovery. But its reaction to 3322.50 was ambushed by a coronavirus headline, triggering a collapse the afternoon bias environment down to 3280.50. Its reaction attacked 3300.00 while ranging choppily sideways through the close. Friday Factors are a function of the weekend's impending illiquidity. Unfinished business above had made the Friday Factors likely bearish influence to be either an opening short-squeeze, or else a rejection of post-open new highs. Its actual influence was to exacerbate the coronavirus headline's reaction. The coronavirus theme wasn't in anyone's models one week earlier when the unfinished business above was forming. The unfinished business above will remain outstanding when the decline finishes discounting the coronavirus theme. Back under 3316.00 had put into play 3295.00-3298.00, and its break had targeted 3277.00-3281.00. Only the lower target's upper-end was pierced, but the proxy at Monday's open for having held support would be to gap up above 3308.00-3311.00. And even that bullishness could be limited to forming a bottom, and not yet rallying. Extending Friday's drop through the weekend would next target 3285.00 and then potentially 3249.00. That would not be easily recovered, and its test would open the door to substantially lower lows. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. NO SATURDAY REVIEW THIS WEEKEND... CHARTROOM RE-OPENS SUN 6PM ET.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3302.75 3302.00 ...would target 3310.00 3309.25 Bias-down: under 3285.75 3285.00 ...would target 3277.75 3277.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.