Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : Narrow overnight ranging up to 4040 resolved down after Europe's opens, and probed Mon afternoon's lows down to 4005 through Tue's choppy open. Bouncing to 4037 established another choppy range up to 4040 through the close. MSFT's post-close earnings triggered a surge to 4047.
Overnight price points : MSFT's knee-jerk reaction was undone by its conference call's guidance, taking ES back down to 4010. Bouncing from the 4011 bias-down target attacked the 4024 bias-down signal when Europe's opens reversed back down. Breaking lower has extended sharply to 3997.
Catalysts : MSFT guidance, JPM bearish, Earnings ongoing, Fed-heads blackout.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : Correction.
Their influences : Trending up intraday from its gap down suggests that yesterday was an accumulative day, i.e. stronger hands exploited the discount, and the prior uptrend will resume. This can repeat indefinitely while price otherwise continues retracing the prior uptrend.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Premise : Tue's dip held its retest of Mon's lows, but never rejected the dip by recovering a relevant resistance. A deeper pullback today would likely start not only by gapping down, but also by maintaining the gap down. Under 3995 could extend next to 3960, encountering interference at 3985-88 and 3975-77.
Alternative : Maintaining MSFT's favorable earnings reaction would have extended higher overnight. Regardless of the overnight action's immediate repricing, that bullish setup can still apply the same influence at Wed's open -- so long as the 3996 area holds a retest or is already recovering, and the first 15 minutes trends up. Exceeding the reversal's room back up to 4030 would likely extend even more sharply higher.
Levels : UP: 4014, 4029… DOWN: 3985-88, 3977, 3960.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

 
         Visualize. Identify. Do It.

VISUALIZE     [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing]
Previously : MSFT's knee-jerk reaction up to 4047 was undone by its conference call's guidance, taking ES back down to 4010. Bouncing from the 4011 bias-down target up to the 4024 bias-down signal began resolving down sharply at Europe's opens reversed back down. Breaking lower extended sharply.
New price points : Wed's open blipped-down to 3980 and snapped back up, as did the next low at 3970. Which also resolved down to start attacking the 3960-3963 target area described during the pre-open Planner.
Catalysts : MSFT guidance, JPM bearish, Earnings ongoing, Fed-heads blackout.

IDENTIFY     [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias]
Setups/Patterns : RENEWED BIAS-DOWN.
Their influences : Bounces are likely to fail through the top of the hour, and potentially throughout the bias window.

DO IT     [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics]
Triggers/Tactics : Maintaining the gap down under Tue's lows signaled a deeper decline underway that could extend under 3995 to 3960-3963, whose range was just attacked to within 1 tick. Interference at 3985-88 and 3975-77 can now serve both as attractions and resistance to a recovery effort, assuming the decline is only a temporary correction.
Alternative : Entering the noon hour under 3960 would suggest at least a much deeper correction, if not a trend reversal underway.
Levels : UP: 4014, 4029… DOWN: 3985-88, 3977, 3960.

CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART:

WED P.M. BIAS 

STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if:
BIAS-UP will trigger above 4014, targeting 4029.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3993, targeting 3981.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.