I'M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: I'M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: FRI P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE I'M AWAY FROM THE SCREENS VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: MON A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Day Trading Pre-Open Strategy - 7:18 AM
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DURING TODAY'S LAST HOUR
Previously : Relentless overnight trending up to 4170 reversed down through Thu's open, despite being a renewed bias-up. Every timing window probed lower until bouncing from 4078 just minutes before the Position-squaring window bounced to 4102.
Overnight price points : Oversold RSIs at Thu's 4078 low were finally retested. It took awhile, ranging through Europe's opens between 4098 and the 4081 bias-down signal. And compensating for the delay has extended relentlessly through the 4068 bias-down target to 4062.
Catalysts : Consumer Sentiment, Earnings winding down.
Setups/Patterns : Friday Factors.
Their influences : Weekend illiquidity can amplify Fri's behaviors, starting with the morning bias tending to persist through the noon hour.
Premise : Oversold RSIs at Thu's 4078 low suggested the 4070-4080 target would be more thoroughly tested, which it now is. Pessimism that restrained Thu's last-minute short-squeeze is now joined by pessimism of trending straight down after Europe's opens. This can be bullish from a contrarian perspective -- enabling the open's fresh low to be rejected easily and reversed into an upleg.
Alternative : Pessimism can be bullish for a support test that forms a buy signal. But exiting the open under Thu's late 4078 low could first attract more pessimism that duplicates Thu's intraday slide to sharply lower levels.
Levels : UP: 4115, 4140, 4168... DOWN: 4063, 4043, 4018.
Trade Signals - Market Open Update - 10:46 AM
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DURING TODAY'S LAST HOUR
Previously : Oversold RSIs at Thu's 4078 low were finally retested. It took awhile, ranging through Europe's opens between 4098 and the 4081 bias-down signal. But finally breaking lower on ECB headlines compensated for the delay by extending relentlessly through the 4068 bias-down target to 4062.
New price points : RSIs already diverged positively before a blip-down to 4061 reacted up to greet the open back at Thu' 4078 low. The first half-hour's accumulative 4070-4090 range repeatedly recovered dips to avoid triggering bias-down. An offsetting test of the 4105 bias-up signal is in-play, already attacked to 4101.
Catalysts : Consumer Sentiment, Earnings winding down, noon hour Fed speaker.
Setups/Patterns : NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN... Friday Factors.
Their influences : Weekend illiquidity can amplify Fri's behaviors, starting with the morning bias tending to persist through the noon hour.
Triggers/Tactics : Thu's late extreme pessimism and the overnight instance each had held relevant levels t suggest they were excessive. This enabled the open to be rejected easily and reversed into an upleg. Now Friday Factors make the morning's bias tend to persist through the noon hour. So, while 4105 may limit the morning's highs if tested, the afternoon should be greeted by rallying, which Friday afternoons find difficult to reverse.
Alternative : The open's bounce has returned to overnight highs, still short of yesterday's last-minute high, which remains vulnerable to a negative knee-jerk reaction if unfavorable headlines ambush this recovery attempt.
Levels : UP: 4115, 4140, 4168... DOWN: 4063, 4043, 4018.
Tonight's Day Trading Plan - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4095, targeting 4008.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4074, targeting 4058.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Mid-Day Update - 1:59 PM
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Closing Wrap is EARLY at 2:15 ET / Bias levels
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DURING TODAY'S LAST HOUR
Previously : Oversold RSIs at Thu's 4078 low were finally retested on ECB headlines after ranging 4081-4098 through Europe's opens. Extending relentlessly down to 4061 reacted up to greet Fri's open back at Thu's 4078 low and avoided triggering bias-down. An offsetting test of the 4105 bias-up signal was attacked to 4101.
New price points : Dipping into the noon hour down to 4072 held the 4074 bias-down signal and has recovered entirely back up to 4101.
Catalysts : Consumer Sentiment, Earnings winding down, noon hour Fed speaker.
Setups/Patterns : noN-BIAS, TESTED BOTH BIASES... Friday Factors.
Their influences : Weekend illiquidity can amplify Fri's behaviors, such as firming or trending up through the close if the bias window lapses above earlier windows' 4091-4101 highs.
Triggers/Tactics : The morning's no-bias parameters remained influential through the morning, ,but left unfinished business at its 4105 bias-up signal. Exiting the noon hour back in positive territory has helped to limit the afternoon's vulnerability to sellers had negative territory not been recovered.
Alternative : A last-minute failure to trigger bias-up has kept some vulnerability to afternoon sellers. Just retesting the P.M. bias-down signal has room down to 4074.
Levels : UP: 4115, 4140, 4168... DOWN: 4063, 4043, 4018.
Trading Summary - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Ranging 4081-4098 through Europe's opens finally broke lower to 4061, and reacted up to greet Fri's open back at Thu's 4078 low, extending post-open o 4101. Dipping into the noon hour down to 4072 was recovered entirely, as was a shallower dip to 4082. Firming into the close tested 4104.
Catalysts : Consumer Sentiment, Earnings winding down, noon hour Fed speaker.
Setups/Patterns : Friday PM Drift.
Their influences : Entering the final hour above noon hour highs ended the day at fresh session highs. But only nominally, and not directly, underscoring the setup's basic influence.
Premise : Fri's last upleg fulfilled the morning's 4105 unfinished business to within 3 ticks, and still held the resistance of prior highs. Sellers gained no traction for their efforts, but exiting the weekend with almost any further strength would be likely to extend higher, and potentially retrace week-old highs.
Alternative : Not closing above a prior high enables resuming the decline without gapping down, but that would be likely if the decline were resuming -- and extending to fresh lows.
Levels : UP: 4115, 4140, 4168... DOWN: 4063, 4043, 4018.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Predictions - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4108, targeting 4124.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4088, targeting 4074.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.