Day Trading Trading Signals - 02-13-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Friday's rally trended up into the afternoon's bias environment to 2315.75. The balance of the afternoon back-and-filled down to 2312.00, hanging on to confirm Thursday's breakout. The requirement to retest overbought RSIs at 2315.75 was left outstanding, along with the afternoon's 2316.75 bias-up target. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open surged 3 points and attacked Friday's 2315.75 high to within 1 tick. Its consolidation soon broke to new highs at 2318.00. Just enough complexity along the way created a "new Globex trend extreme" that requires eventual retest intraday. That didn't prevent retracing the entire surge back down to its 2313.50 origin. Its reaction has been ranging narrowly, and is now firming up to 2317.00. If, then... Thursday's breakout now eventually requires at least a third higher close. And being a new trend high close on a Friday also requires another eventual new trend high close. Neither of which prevents an immediate pullback. Nor does last night's "new Globex trend extreme" -- which is a landmark, not an attraction. Two actual attractions left outstanding Friday were neutralized overnight. Meanwhile, having printed a new trend high, exiting the open under the overnight low would start to suggest a temporary corrective retracement is underway to 2304.50, 2297.00, or deeper. Opening strength that retests Friday's 2315.75 and 2316.75 " unfinished business above" would still be vulnerable to reversing down. Extending higher, instead, would have potential to test 2327.00-2330.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2314.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 2317.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2318.75 would be likely to trigger bias-up.

Overnight rally, pre-open recovery, post-open surge. The open was greeted back at the 2318.00 overnight high, having recovered from a dip to 2313.50. Probing fresh highs through the bias timing window attacked the 2323.25 bias-up target to within 3 ticks. A pullback to 2319.50 has recovered to touch 2323.25. I'm a little suspicious about extending any higher. Gapping up and trending up without hesitation is excessive optimism. The eventual reaction down was recovered more than entirely before consolidating, which is more optimism. And now RSIs diverged negatively upon touching the 2323.25 target. Back under 2320.00 would target at least a test of the 2317.00 bias-up signal. It could be probed, but must define this window's lower-end before being able to reverse the trend down. Otherwise, extending higher despite the weaker elements would be its own bullish signal. Fresh highs would next target a test of 2327.00-2330.00.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2329.00 2325.75 ...would target  2334.50  2331.50 Bias-down: under  2120.00  2317.00 ...would target 2314.50  2311.25 Signal status: LATE BIAS-UP FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Rally's next objective now being met. This morning's 2323.25 bias-up target was clearly influential, being the window's high. But it did not attract counter-trend sponsorship to reverse the trend down. So, as the bias environment lapsing came within view, fresh highs became likely by default. Fresh highs printed quickly as the bias environment began lapsing, and extended slowly as the noon hour developed. But the slope has steepened into the bias timing window. The 2325.75 bias-up signal is being probed up to 2327.75. The bias-up signal was also being touched within 3 minutes of 1:20, invoking the grace period. And 2327.00 is being overlapped by every bar probing above it. Triggering late bias-up would still target 2331.50, but is more easily invalidated without probing any higher after 1:30.

Friday's new trend high close and breakout confirmation have already satisfied their requirement for an eventual higher close. And closing under 2327.00 after probing above it does suggest upside momentum is waning. So, reversing down soon is very possible. But reversing the trend down immediately isn't very likely. Not without first neutralizing overbought RSIs at the 2329.00 high. Also, Monday afternoon's 2331.50 bias-up target became "unfinished business above."  It was not invalidated back under the 2325.75 bias-up. Not decisively, being overlapped slightly into the final hour. And not durably, recovering from a slightly lower dip. A pullback has room for noise down to 2322.75 or 2321.50 just as noise. A deeper pullback should find support down to "lower prior highs" at 2313.00. Even then, the gap back to Monday's 2319.00 opening print would want to be filled from below. Any lower would suggest a much deeper correction has begun. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2333.75 2330.75 ...would target  2340.25  2337.25 Bias-down: under  2324.50  2321.50 ...would target 2317.75  2314.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.