VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: TUE P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: WED A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Pre-Open Market Open - 7:25 AM
Edit
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Sliding from Fri's 4100 close down to 4079 was reversed up to 4115 resistance. A pre-open dip to Fri's lower prior highs at 4102 was reversed up again post-open to 4139 through the morning. The afternoon's 4150 high reacted back down to 4131 before the final hour reversed up, again, to 4151 through the close.
Overnight price points : Mon's late surge back up to 4151 resistance initially drifted lower to test the bias-down signal to 4140. Firming after midnight into Europe's opens suddenly blipped-up to 4157. Its retest briefly attacked 4160.
Catalysts : CPI, Fed speakers, earnings ongoing.
Setups/Patterns : No active setup.
Their influences : - .
Premise : Extending overnight to fresh relative highs isn't coming too late to enable a favorable CPI reaction. Trending up before midnight, too, would have been more reliable, but that window's shallow flat-to-lower ranging still reflects restrained optimism that forms a less reliable version of the same bullish setup. Regardless, greeting the open 2-3 points above Mon's ~4150 highs would be likely to extend higher this morning. Above 4168 would clear the way for 4200 and higher.
Alternative : Already satisfying the next higher objective at 4151 yesterday -- however late it was -- made extending higher overnight more difficult. And now having probed it overnight, exiting Tue's open any lower could isolate its test and reverse momentum down.
Levels : UP: 4168, 4200, 4231... DOWN: 4124, 4104, 4080.
Stock Market Opening Thoughts - 10:52 AM
Edit
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Mon's late surge back up to 4151 resistance initially drifted lower to test the bias-down signal to 4140. Firming after midnight into Europe's opens suddenly blipped-up to 4157, and higher.
New price points : Attacking 4168 resistance was reversed by CPI's headline and plunged to 4132. Then reversed up sharply to fresh highs at 4186. And then back down again, more gradually but also more sharply to 4114 through the open. All of which is basically duplicated by rallying off the open's low back up to 4170, and now collapsing again to 4112.
Catalysts : CPI, Fed speakers, earnings ongoing.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-UP, TARGET MET, BIAS-DOWNS REJECTED.
Their influences : Reversing tests of both bias-down parameters back to both bias-up parameters before signaling reflects accumulation -- if not rejected by exiting the bias window back under the bias-down parameters that are now being retested.
Triggers/Tactics : Overnight optimism resumed stretching the rubber band into CPI, and the multiple wide swings in its wake confirm expectations for an opportunity-rich environment today. Remain prepared to act quickly on reversal signals from one extreme to another. That said, the burden of proof is back on buyers, as the current dip is not arbitrary (i.e. it has retraced all bias parameters) and it is no longer a knee-jerk reaction to CPI or even to its reaction -- but rather reflects a comfort level upon much further consideration. We were looking for a favorable reaction and a failure, but the potential fresh high interim close depends on recovering yesterday's ~4150 highs.
Alternative : Entering the noon hour under 4111 would put into play a retest of Fri's lows.
Levels : UP: 4168, 4200, 4231... DOWN: 4124, 4104, 4080.
Tonight's Day Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
Edit
BIAS-UP will trigger above 4122, targeting 4141.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4098, targeting 4088.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Market Performance Mid-Day Update - 2:06 PM
Edit
Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / Bias levels
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Mon's late surge back up to 4151 resistance was consolidated shallowly until firming through Europe's opens, and attacking 4168 resistance into CPI. Plunging to 4132 reversed up sharply to fresh highs at 4186. Sliding to 4114 through the open reversed up sharply to 4170. That collapsed again to 4112.
New price points : Greeting the noon hour at 4104 has since reversed back up to 4155. Its reaction down to 4138 is now trying to recover.
Catalysts : CPI, Fed speakers, earnings ongoing.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-UP, TARGET MET.
Their influences : The bias window should be supported by its 4141 bias-up target, although a break lower would have room to the window's 4122 signal before requiring a recovery.
Triggers/Tactics : The noon hour was entered at 4111 instead of under it, not requiring a retest of Fri's lows. Reacting back up to yesterday's ~4150 highs puts the market in proximity to close higher, and to label today as accumulative. CPI's eventual 4186 reaction and higher could be in-play without delay, probably motivated by the hopes of a similar ultimate catalyst from Thu's PPI.
Alternative : By the same token, being in proximity to closing above yesterday's highs but not, would prevent labeling today as accumulative. That's a lot of buying pressure to have expended without gaining traction for its effort. And a lot of vulnerability to extending back down.
Levels : UP: 4168, 4200, 4231... DOWN: 4124, 4104, 4080.
Bias Wrap - 4:32 PM
Edit
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Today's price points : Mon's late surge back up to 4151 resistance was consolidated shallowly until firming through Europe's opens, and attacking 4168 resistance into CPI. Plunging to 4132 reversed up sharply to fresh highs at 4186. Sliding to 4114 through the open reversed up sharply to 4170. Yet another collapse to 4104 support was retraced through the noon hour up to 4155, ranging sideways through the close.
Catalysts : Retail Sales, No scheduled Fed speakers, earnings ongoing, WedEX.
Setups/Patterns : No active setup.
Their influences : - .
Premise : Tue's 4146 close was short of Mon's ~4150 highs whose recovery would have considered the session accumulative. But the afternoon fluctuated around Mon's highs, so the close was almost random, and sellers didn't gain traction either. All in the context of multiple wide intraday swings that failed multiple attempts at trending down. Gapping up out of Wed's pre-open Retail Sales would be credible for extending sharply higher again -- perhaps also P.M. firming in anticipation of trudging higher through Thu's PPI reaction.
Alternative : Tue's wide swings suggest a lot of position-jockeying ahead of expiration will still influence price action, and another dip can't be dismissed.
Levels : UP: 4168, 4200, 4231... DOWN: 4124, 4104, 4080.
Tomorrow's Day Trading Plan - 4:56 PM
Edit
BIAS-UP will trigger above 4155, targeting 4168.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4135, targeting 4121.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.