Day Trading Trading Signals - 02-24-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Thursday's post-open 14-point slide was the largest drop of the holiday-shortened week, so far.  So was its recovery. The first two sessions were bullish mornings, gapping up and extending through the bias-up parameters Tuesday, holding a test of the bias-down signal on Wednesday. Thursday's open traveled from the bias-up target to the bias-down signal, expending the most selling pressure of all, and still recovered nearly the entire drop. The session finished by dipping back down to Wednesday's 2361.00 close. Overnight action's new info... Thursday's recovery never resumed as price drifted 2-3 points flat-to-lower. Europe's opens were greeted at 2359.00, and eventually bounced a couple of points. But only briefly, as a two-hour 9-point slide is probing nearly 2 points under yesterday morning's 2353.00 low. If, then... Is this overnight drop temporary like the week's earlier four? Of course, their recoveries have been temporary, too. And the last drop isn't yet retraced entirely. But the pattern has been range bound, anyway. This morning's bias-down target is already being tested, and its break would be credible for testing the prior week's "lower prior highs" as much as 10 points deeper. Avoiding a breakdown yet again would target at least unchanged, if not also fresh highs. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2350.50 would be likely also not to recover the 2352.25 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal, and next targeting 2347.50. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2355.00 would be likely to trigger the 2357.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Gap down bounces, but only so far. Overnight selling had extended pre-open down to 2349.50. The open was greeted back at the 2352.25 bias-down target. And it held. Rallying from there extended up to the 2357.00 bias-down signal. And it held, too. But for a blip-up on 10:00's econ reports, the 2357.00 bias-down signal's test reacted down to 2354.75. Price action has since fluctuated choppily around 2354.00-2357.00, but this is a bias-down environment. Despite already testing the bias-down target, bouncing back up to the signal without recovering it does make the target's retest likely. And delaying its retest makes it likely to break, too. Sellers aren't marginalized. Unless the bias environment exit is recovering above 2358.00, another downleg to last week's "lower prior highs" remains possible.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2360.75 2359.25 ...would target  2366.00  2364.75 Bias-down: under  2353.50  2352.25 ...would target  2347.50 2346.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Still fluctuating around the bias signal. Will this morning's 2352.25 bias-down target be retested? Gapping down to it had recovered to probe the 2357.00 bias-down signal, at one point attacking 2360.00. Bias-down triggered anyway, but 2352.25 was never retested. Ranging choppily flat-to-higher since then has held two more tests of 2360.00, each time reacting back down under 2357.00. Now this afternoon's 2359.25 bias-up signal has held to trigger no-bias. Its 2352.25 bias-down signal could be attacked without trending. Otherwise, Friday afternoons are difficult to generate sponsorship for any move.

Trending during Friday afternoon's no-bias environment was unlikely, being both Friday afternoon and a no-bias environment. Even the proxy window was stagnant -- until the moment it lapsed at 3:20. Surging triggered a sell signal above 2359.25 that was considered only because Friday Factors can be very productive when they overcome the likelier whipsaw. And the likelier whipsaw was overcome. Surging into the cash session close attacked 2364.75. A post-close blip-up attacked 2366.00 momentarily. Any higher would have targeted at least 2371.50. But that was unlikely, since the surge's origin reflects weak-handed sponsorship. The new trend high close was within the range, disqualifying it from requiring any higher close. But a higher high is nevertheless encouraged. Why? Because yet another relatively deep, steep intraday drop has been retraced entirely. That's 4 or 5 for the week. At least an obligatory probe of fresh highs is likely. Correcting Friday's late surge is likelier first. Reversing it back under Friday afternoon's 2355.75 bias environment low is possible, threatening a "session-long decline" targeting "lower prior highs" under 2347.50. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2367.25 2366.00 ...would target  2372.75  2371.50 Bias-down: under  2359.50 2358.25 ...would target 2353.50  2352.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS INVALIDATED, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.