Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Friday's last-minute 61-point plunge down to 3790.00 was already likelier to be retraced or at least corrected, instead of immediately extending down out of the weekend. Gapping up to Friday's 3858.50 high extended higher up to 3912.00, where the final hour reacted down to 3892.50. The entire session developed above Friday's range, but also still entirely within Thursday's range. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Sliding through midnight tested the bias-down target at 3876.50 before bouncing. The bounce attacked the bias-down signal up to 3891.00, and resolved down to fresh lows at 3866.00 through Europe's opens. But not for very long before reacting up, now already back above the bias-down signal at 3894.50. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Monday's session-long rally behavior suggests that its influence will persist during this morning's bias window, unless the first 15 minutes were to trend down. Separately, bullish PM Traction suggests this morning's bias window will trend up, regardless of gapping down, unless the first 15 minutes trends down. Failing to rally this morning could instead only back-and-fill -- yesterday's rally created plenty of room to expend selling pressure without damaging the chart. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Not exactly straight-forward. Market Tour noted that today would be the occasional open lacking an immediately actionable setup. And that was when the overnight recovery from 3866.00 was probing back above the 3891.50 bias-down signal. Continuing to firm through the open probed positive territory up to 3903.50. That was too much, too late, and only stretched the rubber band to snap back down. Snapping back down almost defines post-open action, except for the path being very choppy. Early sellers won a late bias-down, already fulfilling its target when the grace period lapsed. That's less influential than a timely bias-down with a target in-play, which would negate any bullish influences. But it's still bias-down, so the burden of proof is on buyers. RSIs did diverge positively into a lower low at 3873.00. Its reaction up to 3887.00 is being challenged, but the morning's bullish PM Traction setup suggests the window will be exited testing its upper-end, i.e. the 3891.50 bias-down signal.

TUE P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP BIAS-UP: above 3888.00 signal would target 3899.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3870.50 signal would target 3860.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

Detour done. The overnight low was attacked to within 2 point down to 3868.25 as the morning bias window was lapsing. Probing a fresh low would have been optimal, but the timing window was lapsing. And its reaction has trended back up to 3900.00. This afternoon's 3899.25 bias-up target is now met, but it's still a bias-up environment. Exiting this bias window any higher would be likely to trend up into the close. Nothing prevents the balance of the session from simply fluctuating choppily sideways instead. And another downleg remains possible -- albeit the least likely resolution.

Dipping 32 points overnight to 3866.00 was recovered entirely through the open up to 3903.50, only to snap back down and attack overnight low to within 2 points. Another bounce to unchanged at 3900.00 was also reversed down to 3866.00 through the close. Both morning and afternoon sellers accomplished nothing that wasn't already done overnight. Tuesday's resulting ineffectual pessimism is similar to the 2-week decline we discussed on Saturday. Sellers expended a lot of energy in each instance, without gaining traction for either effort. So, Wednesday is as vulnerable as was Monday to rallying. More interim backing-and-filling has room to the Fri-Mon gap-to-gap proxy around 3830.75, while still being considered only noise, if not also stretching the rubber band to snap back up. But any deeper would start to signal the 2-week decline was resuming. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

WED A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED BIAS-UP: above 3876.75 signal would target 3887.25. BIAS-DOWN: under 3863.00 signal would target 3854.50. NO-BIAS: between both signals.