Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Thursday's open was greeted by relentless overnight trending, from 3127.00 and 3114.50 down to 3031.00. Post-open trended up from 3047.00 to 3082.00, but not in time to reject the relentless overnight trending. And not in time to reject the session-long decline setup that had also formed by the gap down rejecting Wednesday's closing rally. So the overnight decline resumed and trended down to 2996.50 until the last half-hour's bounce up to 3029.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) This might be the biggest move to greet an open, down 89-95 points from yesterday's close. Globex's first hour had extended Thursday's last-minute bounce up to 3037.00. Asia's opens abruptly ended that, reversing down sharply back to Tuesday's lows through midnight. A bounce from 2971.50 got to 2997.00 through Europe's opens, but soon began another collapse through Monday's lows to 2926.00. That retraces much of last Friday's last-minute surge that had kicked off this week's recovery attempt. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) It's often said that the market will always disappoint the most participants that it can at any given time. I often say that is only because the market is just getting around to satisfying everyone's expectations. Yesterday afternoon was an example as the window would normally range ahead of the Employment Situation report, but still probed slightly lower lows to fulfill the session-long decline setup. Now the past week has fulfilled expectations of both bullish and bearish participants, leaving only bearish setups outstanding: The session-long decline setup tends to probe fresh lows the following morning, and yesterday afternoon's sellers gained traction to make this morning likely to trend down. More so, extending intraday trending ahead of payrolls tends to foreshadow the report's reaction. An opening thrust that holds a test of support could rally anyway, but probably not for the entire session when trading so far into negative territory. First Trade... (preliminary indications for the Bias parameters) No preliminary indications are considered ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Apparently exceeded by a little too much for its own good. There's a lot going on with today's open. Already bouncing from the 2906.25 pre-open low was then extended through 2928.25 to 2944.00. Reacting down to 2911.25 was actually a test of the 2913.50-2924.75 relevant levels we discussed during the Market Tour. That's the origin of last Friday's surge that began the recovery attempt. There was no requirement to test 2913.50-2924.75, or to test it at any specific time, or to resolve its test in any way. But the specific combination of those factors could form a setup. And an Isolation setup was formed by probing under 2913.50-2924.75, after 9:15, and recovering back above it through 9:45. The test robbed sellers of their momentum, putting into play a bigger bounce targeting 2976.00-2979.00. Its lower-end was just touched, and its reaction has dipped to 2945.75.

Seeing this setup on any other Friday would have marginalized sellers for the day. And that is usually overwhelmingly reliable to trend back up through the day. I focus on this setup every Friday that it appears. It's a product of Friday Factors, which is a set of behaviors influenced by the weekend's impending illiquidity.

Of course, today is different because this week is different. So the Friday Isolation might be retraced entirely by the close. And by the way, rejecting a fully formed bullish setup is often as bearish as it would have been bullish. There's still room up to 2984.00-2986.00 before suggesting anything so substantial as recovering positive territory. And resuming the decline today would still be expected to break under last Friday's lows.

Meanwhile, yesterday afternoon's sellers aren't being rewarded for having gained traction. Their setup was sub-optimal for not being confirmed through the final hour's entry, and the overnight drop is somewhat rewarding, but their setup has otherwise failed. Meanwhile, the yesterday's session-long decline was rewarded by probing fresh lows, and the pre-Payrolls trending was rewarded by the report's reaction resolving down.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2958.00 2955.50 ...would target 2970.25 2967.25 Bias-down: under 2934.25 2931.50 ...would target 2923.75 2921.00 Signal status: noN-BIAS, STILL TESTING BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Almost like a normal Friday. And the Jolly Green Giant looks like a normal guy. Except gigantic. And green. But the Friday Isolation of a relevant level's test between 9:45-10:15 marginalized its sponsorship, already rewarded its sponsorship, and can now range sideways through the close. That is, isolating the post-open probe back under 2913.50-2924.75 had put into play 2976.00-2979.00, and its lower-end was touched at this morning's high. Jolly enough. Now let's add back the green and giant stuff. This isn't a normal Friday because this isn't a normal week. Ranging sideways seems unlikely. In fact, the morning's bounce was retraced to almost touch the upper-end of 2913.50-2924.75. And the noon hour bounce tested this afternoon's bias-up without triggering it. So, extending any higher isn't likely, not without the final hour's entry already being back in rally mode. But this giant range allows room for sizeable moves while only ranging sideways. And there's still potential for resolving down -- already the noon hour's low is being attacked to within 4 points at 2630.00. Fresh lows could melt down into the weekend, but back above 2943.00 would start to signal that a normal Friday intends to persist.

Already trending down sharply overnight to 2906.00, Friday's 2928.00 open would dip again to probe relevant levels. But the probe was isolated between 9:45-10:15 and rejecting the relevant levels was rewarded by rallying to its 2976.00. Trending back down into the final hour probed the overnight low down to 2898.00 where last Friday's last-minute 90-point surge had essentially originated. Another melt-up developed in reaction to a Fed speaker's favorable headline, peaking at 2984.00. The close dipped back to 2956.00. Friday afternoon's break lower wasn't assured of extending any lower, let alone melting down, although it was on-track for either. Now this Friday's last-minute surge will be compared to the prior Friday, and build expectation for immediately extending the recovery attempt. Which it may, and recovering last week's highs would target a much bigger recovery. But the pattern remains vulnerable to resuming the decline either immediately or after extending higher only briefly. At this weekend's Saturday Review we'll discuss possible paths and their signals, which could be evident soon after Sunday night's open. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2989.00 2986.00 ...would target 3005.50 3002.50 Bias-down: under 2945.00 2943.00 ...would target 2928.75 2926.75 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.