VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: FRI P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: MON A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Pre-Open Day Trading Bias - 7:36 AM
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Previously : Wed's last-minute firming was immediately reversed on the way down through Europe's opens to 3979. Multiple coinciding Fibonacci schemes there enabled and enhanced a steep reaction up through Thu's open to 4020. But the bias-up window ranged flat-to-lower and exiting back down at the open's 3998 low collapsed. Trending down sharply to 3910 bounced briefly to 3935 resistance.
Overnight price points : Simultaneously oversold RSIs at Thu's low were quickly neutralized overnight, as Thu's decline resumed at Globex's open and slid through midnight down to 3884. Rallying since then is now probing back above Thu's 3910 low to 3921.
Catalysts : Employment Situation report, FOMC rate decision impact.
Setups/Patterns : Globex-flip, Rollover.
Their influences : Probing yesterday's lows overnight is the basis for a bullish Globex-flip if the first 15 minutes post-open can also recover the 3906-3913 Globex open's range... I'll roll ES coverage from Mar to Jun after today's close.
Premise : Anxiousness over SIVB and other banks was yesterday's scapegoat, not defensive posturing ahead of today's Employment Situation report. So, I'm not expecting much favorable reaction to an otherwise favorable headline. Instead, my premise is for a shallower, briefer bounce to fully retrace its origin and more so, possibly even retesting overnight lows on the way to downtrending through the morning.
Alternative : A favorable reaction could persuade me that sellers are done, at the very least by exiting the first 15 minutes at 9:45 above the 3906-3913 Globex open's range. But this would only speak to strategy, and any long-entry might have to wait for backing-and-filling. Back above 3948 could rob sellers of their traction, targeting 3984.
Levels : UP: 3943, 3974, 4003... DOWN: 3888, 3863, 3828.
Stock Market Opening Trends - 11:12 AM
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Previously : Simultaneously oversold RSIs at Thu's low were quickly neutralized overnight, as Thu's decline resumed at Globex's open and slid through midnight down to 3884. Rallying to 3921 settled back at Thu's 3910 low to greet the Employment Situation report.
New price points : The headline's knee-jerk reaction blipped-down to 3892 and up to 3942, just ticks short of my 3943 resistance that would have pointed sharply higher. Eventually reacting down through Fri's open probed overnight lows lows to 3879. Bouncing again is probing the 3911 bias-down signal's resistance up to 3919.
Catalysts : Employment Situation report, FOMC rate decision impact.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-DOWN, TARGET MET... Globex-flip, Rollover.
Their influences : Probing yesterday's lows overnight and reacting to probe post-open above the 3906-3913 Globex open's range formed the Globex-flip setup. The first 15 minutes post-open didn't maintain the recovery, pointing down for the morning. A bullish setup could have formed after at least testing overnight lows, but none did... I'll roll ES coverage from Mar to Jun after today's close.
Triggers/Tactics : Anxiousness over SIVB has spread to other banks, so the bullish Payrolls data didn't last. Unless next week's CPI suggests otherwise, the next rate hike is presumably only 25 bps. The prevailing headline influence is the banks, but now probing the bias-down signal up to 3917 is trying to suggest that's already discounted. Perhaps, if the noon hour is entered in rally mode at least back above the 3906-3913 Globex open's range, and its exit isn't another downdraft.
Alternative : Back under 3900 would all but invalidate the late-morning bounce, if not also launch a new downleg targeting 3863.
Levels : UP: 3943, 3974, 4003... DOWN: 3888, 3863, 3828.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Bias Levels - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3928, targeting 3941.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3898, targeting 3884.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Day Trading Mid-Day Update - 1:43 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
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Previously : Thu's decline resumed at Globex's open and slid through midnight down to 3884. Rallying to 3921 settled back at Thu's 3910 low where the Payroll headline's knee-jerk reaction's blip-down to 3892 blipped-up to attack 3943 resistance. Eventually reacting down through Fri's open probed overnight lows lows to 3879. Bouncing again probed the 3911 bias-down signal's resistance prematurely.
New price points : Bouncing to 3941 as the bias window lapsed was reversed to 3886 during the noon hour, and now lower to 3854 coming out of it.
Catalysts : Friday Factors, Employment Situation report, FOMC rate decision impact.
Setups/Patterns : RENEWED BIAS-DOWN... Friday Factors, Rollover.
Their influences : Bias-down was likely to persist through the noon hour. Friday Factors' next influence would be the PM Drift, which will point lower if the bias window lapses under the noon hour low... I'll roll ES coverage from Mar to Jun after today's close.
Triggers/Tactics : The morning's bounce was already rejected upon entering the noon hour, and that may have been the last opportunity to produce an afternoon rally. Failing to hold 3863 would next target 3844-3848. Sharply lower this afternoon would likely extend as sharply Mon morning.
Alternative : Now having met 3863, another bounce would be credible -- albeit not at all required, and probably short-lived if it were even to develop.
Levels : UP: 3943, 3974, 4003... DOWN: 3888, 3863, 3828.
Closing Thoughts - 4:32 PM
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WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW
Today's price points : Thu's decline resumed at Globex's open and slid through midnight down to 3884. Rallying to 3921 settled back at Thu's 3910 low where the Payroll headline's knee-jerk reaction's blip-down to 3892 blipped-up to attack 3943 resistance. Eventually reacting down through Fri's open probed overnight lows lows to 3879. Bouncing again probed the 3911 bias-down signal's resistance up to 3941 but reversed into the noon hour, trapping longs for a ride down to 3846/ The last 2 hours ranged choppily sideways.
Catalysts : Friday Factors, Employment Situation report, FOMC rate decision impact.
Setups/Patterns : Friday Factors, Rollover.
Their influences : Bias-down was likely to persist through the noon hour. Friday Factors' other main influence -- the PM Drift -- pointed lower when the bias window lapsed under the noon hour low... I'll roll ES coverage from Mar to Jun after today's close.
Premise : Sudden stability after a steep slide is not strength. This defines Friday's last 2 hours. Both of its lows had fulfilled and held separate sell signal targets, and their interim bounce peaked at its target. Both buying and selling pressure is satisfied, leaving next week's open vulnerable to any sponsorship. While likely to extend further down, probably to a similar degree as Fri if not Thu-Fri, there is one exception. But if too brief or too shallow, then bouncing first would only find stronger-handed sellers.
Alternative : We'll discuss likely levels and their paths at Saturday Review.
Levels : UP: 3943, 3974, 4003... DOWN: 3888, 3863, 3828.
Tomorrow's Market Predictions - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 3917, targeting 3933.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 3888, targeting 3872.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.