Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Friday's pullback day was more of a pullback night, already testing Wednesday's lower prior highs overnight. The drop to 3901.00 was retraced enough to range widely through Friday morning between 3905.00-3924.00. Flat-to-higher ranging through the afternoon filled the gap back to Thursday's 3927.00 close. A last-minute break higher probed positive territory up to 3938.50. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Friday's late break into positive territory extended higher at Sunday night's gap up, which extended to 3947.50. It was reversed through Europe's opens back down under Thursday's close to attack 3924.00. All of which is now recovered, in less than half the time spent reversing down. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Last night's recovery, like Friday's recovery from Thursday night's dip, reflects the rally's underlying strength. But even their consecutive combination doesn't require extending higher immediately -- their pattern only suggest recovering from yet another dip. And another pullback day dip remains likely if the open isn't already resuming the rally. The overnight swing may foreshadow how a second pullback day is already likely to resume the rally before the close. So, discernible trending during the first 15 minutes or exiting the first 15 minutes above overnight highs would likely resume the rally, or else another pullback could dip under 3900.00 before recovering -- possibly before the close. Bias Parameters... (linked here)

Not rallying. Not gapping up keeps today vulnerable to being another pullback day. So far, that has sent the opening range's 3939.00 high down to 3926.00. That's relevant support from Thursday's 3927.00 cash session close. Consolidating there may be only obligatory. The hesitation in extending down doesn't make that resolution any likelier. But it doesn't contradict whether the likely path is down. Assuming the bias window remains under pressure, the only question becomes how deep? Being no-bias, the window's lower-end should be defined by its 3920.00 bias-down signal if tested. It's allowed to break lower when the bias window starts lapsing at 11:30. Exiting the bias window in positive territory above 3934.00 would start to suggest the pullback day redux was even shallower than Friday's. And shorter-lived, being more likely to resume rallying in the afternoon.

MON P.M. BIAS

At 1:20 the P.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP BIAS-UP: above 3931.25 signal would target 3940.50. BIAS-DOWN: under 3920.00 signal would target 3912.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals.

Pullback part deux done? Flat-to-lower post-open ranging had last bounced from 3926.50 up to 3934.50. But the bias window lapse collapsed to fresh lows at 3913.00. Was that the extra pullback day? The rally is still likely to resume this afternoon or tomorrow. Already the collapse has retraced back to its origin, attacking 3935.00. Another break under 3927.00 could start to reverse the trend down. Meanwhile, the rally becomes likelier to resume as the close approaches.

Fluctuating widely Sunday night up to 3947.50 didn't gap up, making the pullback day likely to repeat Monday morning. Its 3913.00 low was shallower than Friday, but more aggressive and longer lasting, and more in-line with the sequence that was established by Thursday. Its gap-and-pause setup also looked for the rally to resume, and Monday afternoon's breakout to new highs tested 3960.00. Isolating Friday's recovery of positive territory to its last half-hour reflected its weak-handed sponsorship, which was corrected. Now Monday's probe above Thursday's highs was isolated to its last 15 minutes, so backing-and-filling Tuesday morning wouldn't be surprising. Nothing substantial, probably. Oversold RSIs at Monday's 3913.00 low will require an eventual retest, which would likely visit 3893.00-3898.00. Its retest has no particular timing, but a knee-jerk headline reaction could make a low there. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

TUE A.M. BIAS

At 10:15 the A.M. BIAS is BIAS-UP BIAS-UP: above 3962.75 signal would target 3974.75. BIAS-DOWN: under 3947.25 signal would target 3934.25. NO-BIAS: between both signals.