VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: THU P.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 1:20 ET if: mid-day UPDATE VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: VISUALIZE [Gather the inputs of Price points, Tests, Timing] IDENTIFY [Process the inputs into Setups, Patterns, Bias] DO IT [Apply the output via Levels, Triggers, Tactics] CURRENTLY UPDATED CHART: FRI A.M. BIAS STRATEGY: A 60-90 minute bias will trigger at 10:15 ET if:Trade Signals - Pre Open - 7:39 AM
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Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Tue night's rally extended sharply from 4008 to 4040 where Wed morning ranged choppily sideways testing 4048. It resumed at the P.M. no-bias lapse and probed the 4060 target by 1 point.
Overnight price points : A pullback to 4053 began resolving up at midnight and extended up to 4068. Europe's opens was greeted by a Bull Flag that broke higher to form an Ascending Triangle at 4075. Which has also broken higher to 4084.
Catalysts : Claims, GDP, Fed speaker, PCE anxiousness.
Setups/Patterns : Relentless Overnight Trending.
Their influences : Intact trending at the open can extend higher through the first-15 or lower to signal reinforcements or countertrend sponsorship having arrived. No signal is also possible.
Premise : Wed's Closing Wrap noted that yesterday's pattern usually extends before correcting, and here we are. So now that focus starts to be shared with another Wrap note that described how buy-the-dip conditioning had begun last Fri and became more intense yesterday. Even more so last night. I've been curious to see what trap the market has been setting, e.g. offer a correction to support after an extreme upleg, but its pullback becomes something more substantial. So, I'll be a little reluctant unlike the past 3 days to buy shallow weakness until it's reversing up, but also reluctant to turn bearish until that support fails. Meanwhile, the next higher attraction is 4088-4092.
Alternative : Reacting down could be supported (currently) at 4071 if not back to yesterday's 4060 upside target that defined its close, before suggesting something more substantial to the downside is underway into and out of the weekend -- like the room down to the Tue-Wed 4018-4028 proxy gap.
Levels : UP: 4077, 4088-4092, 4099-4102, 4121... DOWN: 4018, 3998, 3977.
Stock Market Morning Strategy - 10:58 AM
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Previously : Wed night's initial pullback to 4053 was high enough and resolved up consistently enough to qualify as Relentless Overnight Trending that extended to 4083.
New price points : An almost last-minute surge attacked 4087 and snapped back down into discernible downtrending that wasn't rejected through the first 15 minutes. Its retest snapped back down more sharply to 4072-4074 support that also recovered to 4086.
Catalysts : Claims, GDP, Fed speakers, PCE.
Setups/Patterns : BIAS-UP RENEWED... Relentless Overnight Trending.
Their influences : Discernible downtrending through the first-15 minutes undermines extending higher, makes higher highs vulnerable to rejection, and usually sees the overnight trend retraced by 16.8%.
Triggers/Tactics : It's possible that the post-open dip to 4072-4074 found durable support at last Wed's lower prior highs. This could also end the bearish influence of the open's discernible downtrending. But sell signals will otherwise remain compelling unless this distributive behavior were ignored as the bias window lapses above the open's attack on 4088 resistance.
Alternative : The post-open dip was too shallow to qualify as the dip which I'm suspecting the pattern is conditioning us for. Instead, recovering that dip is just more of the conditioning. Its shallowness and brevity also suggests that strong-handed sellers aren't being attracted overwhelmingly to this area, so higher highs at 4091-4092 or 4099-4101 will need to be visited.
Levels : UP: 4077, 4088-4092, 4099-4102, 4121... DOWN: 4018, 3998, 3977.
Tonight's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 11:59 AM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4085, targeting 4098.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4069, targeting 4055.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.
Day Trading Mid-Day Thoughts - 1:45 PM
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Closing Wrap is at 3:45 ET / References / Bias levels / vidi ROOM
Visualize. Identify. Do It.
Previously : Wed night's initial pullback to 4053 was high enough and resolved up consistently enough to qualify as Relentless Overnight Trending that extended to an almost last-minute surge that attacked 4087. Its reaction formed discernible downtrending through the first 15 minutes. Attacking 4088 resolved down more sharply to 4072 before bouncing again.
New price points : The morning's chop in its bias-up window finally resolved down to quickly meet its 4065 attraction. A bounce to 4072 was retraced in time to trigger late bias-down, now testing 4062.
Catalysts : Claims, GDP, Fed speakers, PCE.
Setups/Patterns : LATE BIAS-DOWN... Relentless Overnight Trending.
Their influences : Discernible downtrending through the first-15 minutes undermined extending higher, and saw its usual retracement of the overnight range by 61.8%. Its influence is now moot.
Triggers/Tactics : Without rallying out of the stalled A.M. bias window, sell signals remained intact. And attraction to their targets put lower targets into play by triggering more sell and bias-down signals. Fresh lows since then have confirmed which makes a bounce unlikely to invalidate the 4055 bias-down target. Probing under the 61.8% proxy gap makes Wed's actual 4059 gap back to its cash session close likely to be filled, too.
Alternative : Even if upside potential to 4091-4092 or 4099-4101 required a test, there would be no particular timing.
Levels : UP: 4077, 4088-4092, 4099-4102, 4121... DOWN: 4018, 3998, 3977.
Closing Thoughts - 4:32 PM
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Today's price points : Wed night's initial pullback to 4053 resolved up into Relentless Overnight Trending and extended to an almost last-minute surge that attacked 4087. Discernible downtrending through the first 15 minutes indicated an attraction below at 4065 that was met when the A.M. bias window lapsed. Its test down to 4062 left a lower bias attraction at 4055 outstanding to instead bounce back up through the close to 4085.
Catalysts : PCE, PMI, Consumer Sentiment, P.M. Fed speaker.
Setups/Patterns : Unfinished business, Friday Factors.
Their influences : Thu's late P.M. bias-down target at 4055 becomes unfinished business that requires being met eventually... The weekend's impending illiquidity creates unique influences, such as the morning's bias tending to persist through the noon hour.
Premise : Thu's P.M. rally began from RSIs diverging positively, so we had anticipated sellers were losing momentum and a 6-7 bounce became likely. But that became 20 points, while leaving unfinished business at the bias objective and also stopping short of filling the actual gap back to Wed's 4059 cash session close. This optimism could indicate the sentiment intends to ignore the downside and remain extreme, to test the 3-week old uptrending channel's upper-end as is expected -- which intersects Fri at 4128-4138 -- which intersect with the 8-week old downtrending channel's 4121 last touch. All of which further confirms eventually retesting Feb's 4244 high. Near terms resistance at 4091-4092 or 4099-4101 could still interfere if an early test Fri were rejected into the noon hour.
Alternative : If Thu afternoon's bounce were simply a rogue leg that doesn't extend higher before resuming its attraction to 4055, then its detour could have refueled sellers for even deeper objectives like 4018-4028.
Levels : UP: 4077, 4088-4092, 4099-4102, 4121... DOWN: 4018, 3998, 3977.
Tomorrow's Stock Market Trading Strategy - 4:56 PM
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BIAS-UP will trigger above 4088, targeting 4101.
BIAS-DOWN will trigger under 4074, targeting 4058.
NO-BIAS if still between both signals.