Day Trading Trading Signals - 04-14-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

Enter the chaRTroom here
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Monday''s pre-open recovery probed fresh highs up to 2101.25. Bias-up triggered late at 10:30, but was never any more productive than before then. Through this small opening drove a giant truck that trended down relentlessly to the afternoon''s 2085.25 low. Perhaps the truck was only relatively giant, since demand was relatively small -- the afternoon bias environment''s exit under the noon hour low wasn''t so much confirmed, as it was not rejected. Ultimately, Monday''s drop held (barely, 3 ticks) above Friday''s confirmation session low.

Overnight action''s new info...
Strong-handed selling, or not, it has extended overnight. But not before retracing all of yesterday''s final hour drop from 2092.75, into and out of Europe''s opens. The only proximate cause for its peak seems to be Asian markets'' weakness. Regardless, a much steeper downleg began that fell over 13 points in 90 minutes to 2079.25. It has since bounced back above yesterday afternoon''s 2085.25 low to unchanged.

If, then...
Weak-handed sponsorship can be productive during less liquid environments. That''s why gapping open from one relevant level to the next is often reversed immediately intraday. Having tested the next lower objective at 2080.00, which is also support from last week''s "lower prior highs," a corrective drop may be complete. Opening back above yesterday''s lows would be an important first step to ending the correction, but still not enough. A brief post-open dip that avoids triggering bias-down would be credible to building a bottom, a little more so than would immediately extending optimistically higher. And not recovering a post-open probe under yesterday''s low would likely retest the overnight low down to 2076.00.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2082.25 would be likely also to trigger the 2083.50 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2089.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. The opening 15 minutes must be exited above 2096.00 before improving the potential to trigger the 2091.50 bias-up 30 minutes later.

Another opening surge is reversed, but much more quickly.

The opening print essentially was this morning''s 2083.50 bias-down signal. Its inflection surged to attack 2090.00. That was similar to yesterday''s opening action, which I had noted this morning would not be credible for extending higher.

And it didn''t.

Reacting back under 2088.00 triggered a sell signal targeting a retest of the 2083.50 bias-down signal, at least to within 3 ticks. Its test extended down to the 2076.00 bias-down target.

And that was all before 10:15.

The bias-down target wasn''t broken, so this is a bias-down environment, whose target has been met. That doesn''t prevent extending down, but extending down is less likely -- because it happens only occasionally after having held its test through 10:15.

The 2076.00 bias-down target was just retested. Back above 2080.00 (being probed now by 2 points) would start to signal the bias-down target''s retest had held, and that momentum may be reversing up.

There''s an interesting similarity between this morning''s open and all of yesterday''s pattern. Repeating yesterday''s optimism suffered the same consequence, but much more quickly. Exiting the bias environment back above the 2083.50 bias-down signal and above 2084.50 -- not just holding the bias-down target -- might be enough to resume the rally. THE rally.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2096.00
2089.25
...would target 2102.50
2095.75
Bias-down: under 2087.75
2081.00
...would target 2081.50
2074.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Mar Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Gapping up Tuesday to probe above Friday''s ~1.0650 highs has room up to 1.0845-1.0855 so long as 1.0615 now holds as support.

Gold Jun Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Gapping down sharply Tuesday was recovered enough to fill the gap back to Monday''s close, but that was retraced to close back under 1194.50 support. Or, at least, still testing its support. Early strength Wednesday would be credible for extending higher. There is otherwise potential down to 1181.50.

Silver May Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Tuesday''s probe under 16.02-16.10 support was recovered through the close. Back above 16.45=16.60 would signal momentum reversing up.

30-year Treasury Jun Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Gapping up sharply to 163-29 Tuesday proved that Monday''s opening sellers were impatient and weak-handed. Extending higher proved that Friday''s 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} resistance required a retest. Extending intraday to 165-26 probed the last three surge peaks without closing above any of them.. But reacting back down to 1640-08 support stopped just short of proving that buyers were absorbed so the decline could resume. Back under 164-04 would now be the nearest sell signal.

Crude Oil May Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Fresh recovery highs attacked 53.75. Stopping pessimistically short of touching last week''s ~54.00 high is potentially bullish from a contrarian perspective.

Natural Gas May Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Gapping up Tuesday didn''t extend more than a penny above Monday''s 2.54 high, ranging narrowly sideways around it through the afternoon without creating any new signals.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2101.25
2094.50
...would target 2107.25
2100.50
Bias-down: under 2090.50
2083.75
...would target 2084.50
2077.75
Signal status: BIAS-UP
FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2

1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.