Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... The ongoing series of intraday distribution remained alive and well going into Easter/Passover weekend. As did the ongoing series of gapping up. Thursday's open was greeted near the end of a 22-point rally from overnight lows to 2911.75. Almost all of its 17-point retracement down to 2895.00 was done during the session's first hour. Sellers failed 2-3 attempts to convert that retracement into a reversal, which told us to expect the drop's recovery. And it was, to within 1 tick, while the afternoon ranged choppily sideways around 2910.00 into the close. Overnight action's new info... Sunday's open gapped down momentarily a little to 2907.50, then spiked up 5-points to probe fresh highs attacking 2916.00. Nice try. It was all errant ticks above the 2914.25 bias-up signal, which held its retest. A 13-point collapse down to 2901.00 suddenly found itself consolidating under Friday afternoon's range. A bounce to 2907.50 has resolved back down to 2901.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Two or three bearish setups are threatening to greet the open. The week's final afternoon of choppy sideways ranging didn't provide optimal confirmation to the bearish WedEX. Nor was it invalidated. Nevertheless, regardless of gapping up, trending down through the first half of Monday's opening 15 minutes of volatility would get a benefit of the doubt for trending down aggressively through the balance of the morning. The downside would be helped by completing a bearish Globex-flip setup, after the overnight probe above Friday's highs is rejected back under Sunday night's 2907.50 earlier Globex low. And that could trigger the bias-down signal just 6 ticks lower. Meanwhile, recovering in time to avoid the Globex-flip, and any other of the bearish setups, could be as bullish as they otherwise would have been bearish -- likely to probe higher highs, not only to Wednesday's 2923.00 gap up, but also its room for noise up to 2926.50-2928.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2903.50 would be likely to trigger the 2906.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2910.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Bias-down target's support, recovers to bias-down signal -- which won't let go. Gapping down to 2900.00 spent several minutes in a 2-point range at 2899.00-2901.00, touching the pre-open low while also overlapping the 2900.25 bias-down target. Then a surge developed that ultimately probed the 2906.00 bias-down signal up to 2909.00. Bias-down triggered at 10:15. A bounce overlapped it at 10:30, but didn't recover it, so bias-down was maintained. Bias-down, target met. Another test of the 2900.25 bias-down target is in-play. Already having tested it, it won't become "unfinished business" if left outstanding.

First things, first. The 2906.00 bias-down signal keeps attracting price back up to it. Most recently by a surge now attacking the open's 2909.00 high.

The context of this being a bias-down environment makes any recovery suspicious. The bearish Globex flip's context, too. Even if ultimately extended higher, at least a dip back down to 2906.00 would be required (unless exiting the bias environment above its 2914.25 bias-up signal). But the surges probing above 2906.00 area are aggressive, and should take precedence over staying short.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2908.75 2911.75 ...would target 2915.75 2918.75 Bias-down: under 2902.50 2905.50 ...would target 2895.75 2898.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Flat-to-higher ranging around unchanged. Opening at this morning's bias-down target held the 2899.00 pre-open low. Its reaction held 2-3 test of Thursday's 2908.50 cash session close. An extremely narrow 2-3 point range since noon has fluctuated around 2908.50.

If this morning's bearish setups were at all influential, then it is in their ability to restrain a recovery. Recovery has been the market's natural state since the open, however restrained and now gradual it has become.

The market is expending a lot of buying pressure with diminishing immediate returns. The difficult task is to get away from unchanged at Thursday's close, which isn't just natural resistance or support but also an attraction. Extending higher gradually into the bias environment lapsing might only stretch the rubber band to snap back down into a collapse. Otherwise, all of this chipping away at resistance should almost literally explode higher.

Monday morning's reaction to gapping down and testing 2899.00 had gravitated back up to being unchanged from Thursday's 2908.50 close. The afternoon only ranged narrowly around 2908.50, finally breaking free in its last half-hour. But even then the surge to 2912.75 was mostly retraced, essentially leaving an "inside day." Regardless, the late internal breakout attempt may prove valid, if confirmed by extending higher Tuesday without delay. Otherwise, the pattern probably cannot tolerate much more than the slightest, briefest pullback, if only to attack Monday's 2899.00 low. Extending higher would target fresh highs at 2926.50-2928.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2911.75 2914.75 ...would target 2917.25 2920.25 Bias-down: under 2903.00 2906.00 ...would target 2895.00 2898.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.