Day Trading Trading Signals - 04-27-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Wednesday's open was greeted unchanged from Tuesday's 2385.00 close after ranging narrowly overnight. Neither of which prevented a morning rally to fresh highs attacking 2395.00. Maintaining the rally or extending it was prevented by the rally itself, having originated from unchanged after not gaining traction the prior afternoon. It was doomed to failure, which finally proved out during the last half-hour's slide to fresh session lows at 2382.00. Bias-up targets were met, and only the morning's overbought RSIs were left outstanding by a 1-tick miss. Overnight action's new info... Immediately extending Wednesday's late slide several ticks to 2381.25 ended the leg. Or paused it. Overnight action has duplicated the prior night's narrow ranging, back up to 2385.00, and back down to 2381.25. Now a surge is testing 2386.50 as ECB's policy statement takes the stage. If, then... Today may yet extend yesterday's reversal further down. By two consecutive closes above 2375.00 putting into play new highs, the rally can rest on its laurels. Briefly, so a productive pullback will be steep. A bounce has room up to 2388.00 before suggesting the rally is already resuming. Mario Draghi's press conference following the ECB's policy statement is a reliable catalyst for expanding volatility. The pre-open Durable Goods report is influential to price action, too, and quarterly earnings remain in full-swing. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2378.00 would be likely to trigger the 2380.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2385.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open above 2386.50 would be likely at least to probe the 2388.00 bias-up signal.

Pre-open bounce exits the open flat. Surging into the ECB announcement had probed positive territory for the first time overnight. But only to 2386.50 resistance. Choppy ranging was supported by 2383.25 into and out of the open. Blipping-up into the 10:15 bias timing window  attacked the 2388.00 bias-up signal to within 2-3 ticks. Bias-up wasn't touched, let alone triggered. Not touching the bias-up signal before signaling no-bias means no offsetting test of the 2380.25 bias-down signal is required. But this isn't a "dry cleaners" morning, since price is essentially at the range's upper-end, with room down to retest the overnight lows. Hovering in positive territory through the morning could break higher when the bias environment lapses at 11:30-noon. Meanwhile, drifting back to overnight lows is possible.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2387.50  2383.75 ...would target  2392.50  2388.75 Bias-down: under  2381.75 2378.00 ...would target  2376.75  2373.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Corrective dip rallies hard off its target. The first hour's choppy ranging around 2385.00 had avoided triggering the 2388.00 bias-up signal. It had also avoided touching bias-up. An offsetting test of the 2380.25 bias-down signal wasn't required. But it was tested anyway. A single plunge pierced it by 3 ticks. It was probed by twice that after an interim bounce failed. RSIs diverged positively into the lower low, just before noon. Trending up relentlessly through the noon hour probed the morning's high. It peaked upon touching this afternoon's 2388.75 bias-up target. Meeting the target without renewing the bias-up signal doesn't change that this is a bias-up environment. Extending higher is possible. Back under 2386.00 would signal at least a corrective dip targeting a retest of the 2383.75 bias-up signal. Any deeper would extend the corrective pullback. Even if the correction has ended already, nothing requires resuming the rally today.

2388.00 had already established its relevance. Suddenly stopping Thursday afternoon's rally further confirmed its relevance. Overbought RSIs that formed at the high require an eventual retest. That retest could help to resume the rally. Trying to resume the rally immediately Friday would be credible for extending higher, but also vulnerable to reversing down through the open. Thursday's lows also confirmed the relevance of 2379.00. Its break would extend the pullback, initially to test 2375.00 where its test would either hold to resume the rally to new highs, or else extend the pullback to 2360.00-2361.00. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2393.50 2389.75 ...would target  2399.25  2395.75 Bias-down: under  2382.50  2379.00 ...would target 2376.50  2372.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.