Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's late collapse from 2860.00 to its 2823.00 Globex low had likely been sponsored by weak hands. Rallying straight up overnight reversed the late collapse and probed unfinished business at 2874.00 up to 2881.50. Thursday's open triggered two bullish setups: Gapping above Wednesday's bias environment highs formed a Session-long rally. And trending up through the open reinforced the Relentless Overnight Trending. The latter was fulfilled by surging to new highs within 2 ticks of my 2895.50 target into the noon hour. We rode the Session-long setup until it stopped performing, missing a fresh high during not one but both of the session's last two timing windows. The afternoon slid to test the morning lows down to 2868.00. The slide's timing triggered bearish PM Traction. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Already bouncing 17 points from the 2868.00 low back up to 2885.00, the recovery extended seamlessly at the Globex open. The 2895.00 intraday high was probed 2 hours of the open, and extended sharply higher up to 2923.00. A 2-hour pullback to 2901.00 through Europe's opens is just retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the dip back up to 2915.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) There is a distinctly bullish feel to last night's rally, originating without delay from yesterday afternoon's retest of the morning lows. But that dip only avoided closing back under the recovery's 2874.00 minimum target, and otherwise held the likelier 2895.50 target. The morning rally's excessive optimism was corrected that afternoon. Is the overnight rally sticking out its neck for the Employment Situation guillotine, only to be corrected this morning? Yesterday afternoon's bearish PM traction setup suggests a morning drop, which could test 2888.00 while still being only a correction and capable of an afternoon recovery. A morning-long pullback could be shallow or not, but ignoring the bearish setup's influence and just extending higher this morning would likely develop aggressively. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

No preliminary indications are considered ahead of an Employment Situation report.

Bearish traction in hibernation. Yesterday's PM Traction setup had suggested its bearish influence would define post-open action this morning, too. That's regardless of gapping up to 2908.00, which is essentially within the range of the pre-open Employment report's reaction. The open did slide, from 2911.00 down to 2895.75 (the 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} gap-to-gap retrace from yesterday's close). That was the first half of the opening 15 minutes, and the second half bounced. The bounce retraced less than 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} of the open's slide, which qualifies as downtrending. A more complex series of lower lows and lower highs would have been optimal, but weren't rejected, so they won't be marginalized. So, will they be productive. The reaction up attacked 2913.00 and The first hour lapsed within the open's range, not yet resolving down. That might be happening at this moment, reacting down to 2903.00. Back above 2910.00 would attempt to recover. Regardless, trending in either direction this morning should be aggressive, or its attempt would be suspicious.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2927.50 2920.50 ...would target 2343.50 2936.50 Bias-down: under 2912.00 2905.25 ...would target 2897.50 2890.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Hovering near overnight highs. Rallying overnight ahead of the Employment Situation report does seem to have borrowed more optimism than the post-report environment could offer. The post-open drop to 2895.75 was never exceeded, despite yesterday afternoon's bearish PM Traction setup. But its reaction has only gradually recovered to the report's initial bullish 2918.00 reaction high. Otherwise, each swings reaction has returned to and sometimes through 2911.00. A sell signal there is being tested now, and extending under 2908.00 should at least attack the morning's lows. Back above 2917.00 would start to signal an actual rally leg underway. Until either trending up or trending down is done aggressively, neither trending attempt would be reliable for extending. But once a trending attempt begins acting aggressively, then it would likely extend in that direction.

Already rallying sharply overnight up to 2923.00 had expressed a lot of optimism ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report. Its choppy knee-jerk reaction only ranged sideways into the open, which broke lower to within 3 ticks of Thursday's 2895.75 high. The balance of the session trended back up, ignoring Thursday's bearish PM traction influence, and finally probing overnight highs by 3 points during the final 30 minutes. Extending higher post-close tested 2933.00. Friday interrupted the 3-day pattern of P.M. dip / A.M. gap up. The next afternoon dip would be much less likely to recover. Friday afternoon's P.M. rip was in the prevailing trend's direction, so it's no more likely to be reversed -- not for reasons that made the prior afternoon dips tenuous. Still, Friday Factors suggest a lot of the late range's breakout was weaker-handed short-covering. Oversold RSIs left outstanding at the afternoon's 2904.50 low will require being tested. Gapping down any lower would reject Friday's uptrending close and form a Session-long decline setup. The next higher attraction at 2936.50 is likely to be tested regardless of its resolution -- it's the last chance for not fully retracing the recent 2965.00 overnight high. The last chance among several others already recovered, so early session weakness would be likelier to extend down than later. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. JOIN US AT 9:30 ET FOR THIS WEEKEND'S SATURDAY REVIEW.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2937.50 2930.00 ...would target 2954.50 2947.00 Bias-down: under 2922.00 2914.50 ...would target 2905.75 2898.25 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.