Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Already rallying sharply overnight up to 2923.00 had expressed a lot of optimism ahead of Friday's Employment Situation report. Its choppy knee-jerk reaction only ranged sideways into the open, which broke lower to within 3 ticks of Thursday's 2895.75 high. The balance of the session trended back up. The morning honored Thursday's bearish PM traction influence only by ranging under the overnight highs, but didn't trend down. Overnight highs were probed by 3 points during the final 30 minutes. Extending higher through the 2921.50 cash session close tested 2933.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) Friday afternoon's late breakout was in the prevailing trend's direction which would otherwise be bullish, but Friday Factors had identified its sponsorship was weaker-handed short-covering. Meanwhile, the next higher attraction at 2936.50 was likely to be tested regardless of its resolution. Globex gapped down to Friday's cash session close at 2920.75 proving Friday's late breakout was tenuous. Bouncing sharply off of Friday's "lower prior highs," touched the 2947.00 bias-up target. Flat-to-lower ranging began rolling over after midnight, briefly interrupted by a temporary bounce through Europe's opens. The reaction down resumed, now probing the earlier Globex low down to Friday afternoon's 2904.50 low (neutralizing its oversold RSIs). If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Having probed overnight above Friday's range, retesting the earlier Globex low forms a bearish Globex-flip setup. It would trigger by exiting the open at 9:45 under 2916.00. A bearish Isolation setup would form by spending the entire open in negative territory. Its optimal trigger would spend the morning bias environment under Friday afternoon's bias environment highs. Forming these bearish setups without also triggering could be as bullish as the setups would have been bearish. That might not be saying much, because setups can be less reliable when depending on Monday's memory of Friday's price action. I'll still give them every benefit of the doubt if triggered. This would include exiting the open back under Friday afternoon's 2904.50 low to trigger a Session-long decline. Now having neutralized oversold RSIs left outstanding at 2904.50, another rally leg still has time to develop before the open. Reacting down from 2936.50 is likely to be the last chance for ending the bull market rally without it extending higher another 350 points. So, more than just another opportunity to end the bear market rally, already reacting down so aggressively today is probably a make-or-break situation. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 2908.00 would be likely to trigger the 2914.50 bias-down signal. Exiting the open above 2921.50 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Exiting the open under 2925.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2930.00 bias-up signal.

But not trending down post-open. The 2916.00 earlier Globex low has barely been attacked to within 7 points, easily triggering the bearish Globex-flip setup. It says this morning should trend down, however steeply or shallowly. The nearest representation of that so far was the 2900.25 open's blip-down to 2895.50. It was recovered up to 2909.00. So were 2-3 more reactions down. A bigger bounce could test the 2914.50 bias-down signal as resistance. Meanwhile, a retest of the 2898.25 bias-down target is in-play. Friday afternoon's 2904.50 low was still being overlapped at every relevant window -- but never decisively rejected -- to only suggest a Session-long decline has triggered. A bearish Isolation setup is still forming. I'm very reluctant to give buyers any benefit of the doubt this morning, and have been viewing buy signals as short-entry opportunities. That has worked well for their reactions, but I'll be very suspicious and start turning bullish if sellers can't exploit this morning's bearish influences.

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2929.75 2922.50 ...would target 2941.25 2934.00 Bias-down: under 2910.50 2903.25 ...would target 2895.25 2888.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Bearish setups debunked. The 2890.00 pre-open low was recovered to barely test the 2898.25 bias-down target post-open. The bias environment's flat-to-higher choppy ranging was repeatedly resisted by 2908.00-2911.00 until the window began lapsing. The noon hour was greeted by fluctuating narrowly around the morning's 2914.50 bias-down signal. The recovery's slope steepened soon afternoon. This afternoon's 2922.50 bias-up signal triggered, and now its 2934.00 bias-up target is being probed up to 2937.00. This is the first intraday test of 2936.50, which was already tested overnight, either one being likely regardless of today's ultimate resolution.

Last night's opportunity to hold a test of 2936.50 was impressive, but not durable. The bearish Globex-flip was triggered cleanly but its influence only contained price under its bias-down signal. Session-long decline was dubious at every checkpoint and has missed two window for probing a fresh low. Only the bearish Isolation setup remains intact, having spent the morning under Friday afternoon's highs, but closing in positive territory would render it moot.

It's not on a timely basis, but closing in positive territory would reject a lot of selling pressure. Meanwhile, resuming the selling pressure should close obviously negative. Two consecutive closes above 2930.00-2934.00 would make the rally -- bear market rally, or not -- next target 3288.00. Back under 2908.00-2911.00 would be the optimal trend reversal signal available at this stage.

Reversing Sunday night's gap down back up above Friday's highs to 2947.00 was itself rejected overnight back down to 2890.00. Monday's 2900.00 open was under Friday's lows, and began forming three bearish setups. Globex-flip only succeeded at keeping the morning under its bias-down signal. Session-long decline never triggered decisively. Only Isolation remains intact for having finished Monday in negative territory, albeit back at Friday afternoon's 2918.00 highs when closing UNDER them would have been optimal. No traction was gained either way and no new "unfinished business" formed. A lot of buying pressure was expended to absorb the morning's bearish setups. Rejecting them on a timely basis at the open would have been as bullish as they could have been bearish. So, the rally's sponsorship missed an opportunity. Closing back under 2930.00-2934.00 fails to put into play higher targets. At least closing above Friday afternoon's 2918.00 highs would have allowed upside momentum to default to the prevailing trend (i.e. up). Without having gained traction Monday afternoon, resuming the rally Tuesday should begin by gapping up. Almost any rally effort through Tuesday's open would be credible for extending higher intraday, and probably aggressively. Similarly, rejecting another overnight rally or just trending down through Tuesday's open would reflect reinforcements to Sunday night's reversal, potentially launching a downleg. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2938.25 2931.00 ...would target 2950.25 2943.00 Bias-down: under 2915.25 2908.00 ...would target 2895.25 2888.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.