Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Tuesday's open was greeted flat-to-higher from Friday's close at 2831.00, the midpoint of Sunday night and Memorial Day ranging. An immediate surge probed the overnight range's upper-end up to 2841.25. Reversing almost as quickly soon attacked the overnight range's 2823.00 lower-end. Ranging back up to 2833.00 through the noon hour hardly waited for the bias environment to lapse before resolving down. Critical 2813.00-2817.00 support was probed down to 2801.00, 1 point under 2-week old lows. Overnight action's new info... The futures close probed 6 ticks lower before reacting up before the Globex open. Narrow sideways ranging held what is this morning's 2806.00 bias-up signal as resistance. And then it collapsed to attack this morning's 2792.00 bias-down target. Its reaction up had already begun collapsing again to greet Europe's opens at 2787.00, where flat-to-lower ranging touched 2782.00. Despite reacting back up to 2792.00, the overnight low does represent a "new Globex trend extreme" that requires intraday retest. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Tuesday's failed opening surge was the third consecutive session's early selling pressure of consequence. All of which continued defending last Monday's "higher prior lows" as resistance, and was rewarded by probing under 2813.00-2817.00. Now indicated to gap down under prior lows, the open would require being retested from above -- not that a bounce will develop, but it would be doomed to failure by leaving "unfinished business" below at the gap open. And bouncing is possible because yesterday's close already contained excessive pessimism. Regardless, breaking under late-March's momentum peak, after its week-long distribution had dumped ballast that enabled the interim rally to 2961.00, suggests a bigger downleg is developing that eventually targets 2727.00 and 2581.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2788.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2792.00 bias-down target at 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2795.50 would be likely at least to trigger the 2798.25 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2803.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down.

Headline hazard = high-probability setup. A funny thing happened on the way to resuming the overnight decline. Or, on the way to recovering it. We'll never know which, because news broke of Mueller planning an 11:00 ET press conference. The headline inhibits participation, paralyzing trending efforts. But there was plenty of room for noise. Assuming the 2782.00 overnight low is the lower-end of the range, attempts to probe lower either should fail altogether or at least be brief. And a fresh low at 2778.25 -- having neutralized the attraction to retest the overnight "new Globex trend extreme" -- was reversed back up to probe the 2792.00 bias-down target's resistance by 3 ticks. Just gravitating higher doesn't require attracting new sponsorship. The bounce enticed defensive posturing ahead of the event, and now the 2782.00 overnight low is being retested as support. Whatever the morning had in mind, absorbing the press conference's reaction is now its primary focus. This afternoon will be free to trend again, in either direction.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2776.50 2777.00 ...would target 2784.50 2785.00 Bias-down: under 2763.75 2764.50 ...would target 2756.75 2757.50 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Retracing the morning's drop. The 2788.50 opening print and its reaction were obfuscated by this morning's headline surprise. Its eventual bounce up to 2792.75 reacted down through the Mueller press conference. That leg could have finished upon probing under the 2778.75 post-open low. It was reversed down to 2766.25.

That was this morning. Literally, all morning, finally reversing up again at noon.

Now this afternoon's 2785.00 bias-up target is already met and held. Its reaction down nearly touched the 2777.00 bias-up signal as support. It triggered anyway, putting into play a non-required retest of 2785.00. It's being attacked again anyway. An afternoon rally beyond 2785.00 could target 2796.25, the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement of today's opening gap. Otherwise, back under 2778.00 would start to signal the bounce is done. Oversold RSIs at the low require an eventual retest. That would be problematic to a recovery, because fresh lows at this stage of the pattern would likely extend.

Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at Wednesday's 2766.25 low. But that's not the only reason to expect its retest, and it's not even the most influential: Wednesday opened and closed under late-March's ~2790.00 lows, which had been the end of that distributive phase. There's no bullish reason to revisit it, let alone to break under it. Gapping back up Thursday to form an Island-type structure could delay its eventual extension down to 2727.00 and 2651.00. But that probably requires a headline or other artificial catalyst. The organic pattern now has four consecutive post-open selling sprees, and Wednesday's was among the sequence's most productive by remaining in negative territory. Not gapping up, but simply bouncing intraday would have room to test 2796.25 before suggesting 2813.00-2817.00 might be tested, too. Meanwhile, the decline remains intact, and Friday's price action should reveal that the topping is no longer a secret among just us. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2789.25 2789.75 ...would target 2796.25 2797.00 Bias-down: under 2778.50 2779.00 ...would target 2772.50 2773.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET MET . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.