Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Gapping down Wednesday to 2888.50 resolved down through the morning. Oversold RSIs were left outstanding at Wednesday's 2766.25 low, while the balance of the session bounced back to attack the open, and then to touch it. The 2783.00 close was back within the open's range, not quite reflecting inertia, but requiring Thursday to gap down if the decline were going to resume immediately. Overnight action's new info... Sideways ranging finally began extending higher through midnight. Europe's open were greeted back at yesterday morning's 2792.00 high. Narrow ranging was supported by 2788.00, which just began slipping to attack 2786.00. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) The shallow overnight firming reflects anxiousness. Bouncing back into the gap between Tuesday's-close / Wednesday's-open would help to trap longs, stretching the rubber band so post-open selling could gain traction. Post-open selling from only testing yesterday's highs would be less likely to extend down substantially intraday. Already declining back into negative territory at the open from within the range would have a brief window to gain traction for controlling at least the morning. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 above 2791.50 would be likely to trigger the 2789.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2788.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open above 2782.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2779.00 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Opening surge above overnight highs is holding. The overnight rally testing yesterday's 2792.00 high had retraced to 2785.00 before the open. The open was greeted at the 2789.75 bias-up signal, which surged to attack the 2797.00 bias-up target. The target held to avoid renewing bias-up, but bias-up triggered nevertheless. And 2797.00 has since been retested. Being a bias-up environment, the morning is free to extend higher. It doesn't often, not when its target has held its test. But the gap back up to Tuesday's 2801.00 and 2805.00 closes could be filled, along with testing last Thursday's "higher prior lows" at 2807.50. Back under 2794.50 again would start to signal the trend reversing back down. The 2789.75 bias-up signal could be tested during the bias-up environment, and then lower when the window is lapsing. A blip-up to 2799.00 reacted back down to 2795.25, testing its pullback limit. Be careful of the prior four sessions' pattern resuming its post-open selling.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2790.50 2790.25 ...would target 2797.00 2796.75 Bias-down: under 2781.50 2781.50 ...would target 2776.00 2776.00 Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

PROGRAMMING NOTE: I will be away from the screens during either Friday's open, or late-morning. Specific timing will be made available during tomorrow's Market Tour. Similar in principle, a fifth consecutive post-open selling spree has taken a different character. Gapping up to this morning's 2789.75 bias-up signal tested and retested its 2797.00 bias-up target. Probing higher to 2799.00 after the first hour was rejected by a drop to 2782.25 by noon.

The reversal down was a little later than the four prior sessions. But it reversed back under the open and under the prior session's highs, which qualifies it as rejection and not just noise.

The bullish scenario would reject it by recovering it today through the afternoon, or by gapping up tomorrow above today's highs. The bearish scenario would continue drifting down, or hover around yesterday's highs before trending down into tomorrow. The bullish scenario is undefined, in terms of degree and duration. But the bearish scenario would likely trend down into the weekend, while probably resuming the decline to fresh lows. Closing today in negative territory would favor the latter, bearish scenario.

REMINDER: I will be away from the screens during either Friday’s open, or late-morning. Specific timing will be made available during tomorrow’s Market Tour. Five consecutive sessions have now developed post-open selling of consequence. Thursday's came the latest, and was the least consequential. Gapping up to 2790.00 extended higher beyond the first hour to 2799.00, and it only briefly probed negative territory under 2781.50. But the reversal did reject post-open gains, forming "ineffectual optimism." Closing negative would have all but required trending down already into Friday's open. Having closed positive Thursday instead, more flat-to-lower ranging is possible through the morning. Regardless, the distributive pattern's influence should become obvious into the weekend, whether immediately Friday or not until Friday afternoon. Probing higher first on Friday would have room up to 2801.00 or 2807.50 before suggesting that sellers might not retake control before the weekend. Probing higher first without yet reversing down during the afternoon bias environment would also make sellers less likely to retake control. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2795.50 2795.50 ...would target 2803.75 2803.75 Bias-down: under 2779.75 2779.75 ...would target 2773.00 2773.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.