Day Trading Trading Signals - 06-17-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Thursday's gap down and extension lower had tested the 2043.00 target down to 2040.75. A corrective bounce to 2049.00 was prepared to retest the lows and potentially form a durable bottom. Satisfied sellers and a little upward momentum were leveraged by tragic news that softened Brexit's bearish influence. The balance of the session rallied relentlessly to 2071.50. No traction was gained. Overnight action's new info... After initially firming up to 2074.75, price has dipped a little into negative territory at 2065.25. Each end of the overnight range is within 3 ticks of this morning's bias-up and bias-down signals. If, then... Could a retest of 2043.00 today still form a bottom as would have been done by holding its retest yesterday? Probably not without probing even lower first, to compensate for the delay. That effort would meanwhile open the door to resuming the decline. Ending the week at fresh lows is rarely rejected immediately Monday. And this afternoon will be confronted by bearish WedEX influences. Probing fresh highs this morning is possible before reversing down later. The unlikely scenario would extend higher durably. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2070.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2074.75 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open under 2063.00 would be likely to trigger the 2065.00 bias-down signal

Delayed reaction to weak pre and post-open action. The overnight range held tests of the 2065.00 and 2074.00 bias signals. Greeting the open between them at 2068.00 didn't offer any compelling entry setups. Not long, or short. Then the open spiked down, to a fresh low at 2061.50. That was aggressive, and also brief. The next hour ranged choppily back up to 2066.00. That's not much more predictive than the overnight range. Still overlapping the 2065.00 bias-down signal at 10:15 invoked the grace period. Sellers exploited it by eventually trending down sharply to 2056.50, whose oversold RSIs require its retest.

So, this is a bias-down environment. Its 2059.25 bias-down signal has been fulfilled. Breaking under 2056.00 would likely extend to 2053.00 -- possibly this morning so long as 2062.50 holds as resistance.

This morning's action has no bearing on the afternoon's bearish WedEX. Trending down relentlessly isn't required, but the possible paths should be identifiable by noon.

FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2069.25  2060.25 ...would target  2054.75  2066.00 Bias-down: under  2061.75 2053.00 ...would target  2056.25  2047.25 Signal status: noN-BIAS, TESETED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Late bias-up tries undermining bearish WedEX. This morning's dip to attack 2053.00 was retraced back up to 2062.50 through noon. Its reaction down to 2056.00 was recovered entirely. During that recovery, bias-up signaled.

Bias-up signaled late, so its 2066.00 bias-up target isn't required to be met. The bearish WedEX influence can absorb the target's test and reverse down before the close. The bias-up itself can be invalidated by exiting the bias environment under the afternoon's 2056.00 low.

Fresh afternoon highs would make the bias-up target likely to be met, regardless of its resolution. But back under 2058.75 would start giving the bearish WedEx more credibility than the bullish bias-up.

Was the bearish WedEX influential Friday? The afternoon trended up 10 points in a series of higher highs and higher lows. Trending down 6 points through the final hour still held up above the prior low. Other than ranging exclusively in negative territory, there was nothing overtly bearish. Not until AFTER the close, which relentlessly ticked down 5 points. I can't say it's not optimal confirmation since being post-close is purely a reflection of expiration. But it's certainly not holistic since the afternoon trended up. Being a Friday, let alone expiration, the inside day and buyers gaining traction are much less relevant than any other day, if at all. So, trending down sharply Monday (even if gapping up sharply) still remains a possibility. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

This weekend's Saturday Review begins at 9:30am ET in the chaRTroom. Links will be emailed overnight.

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2074.50 2065.75 ...would target  2080.00  2071.25 Bias-down: under  2064.00  2055.25 ...would target  2056.50  2047.75 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.