Day Trading Trading Signals - 06-27-2016

MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2043.50  2034.00 ...would target  2051.00  2041.50 Bias-down: under  2028.25 2018.75 ...would target  2017.50  2008.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN, BIAS-DOWN TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... Understatement of the decade: Friday's open gapped down sharply. But its 2031.50 opening print was well above the overnight limit-down at 1999.00. Rallying through the first half-hour attacked 2065.00, then the balance of the session trended back down. The final hour's blip-down under the open's low to 2022.25 reacted up stunningly to 2040.00. Even more stunningly, the cash session's last 10 minutes were reversed down to 2026.50, extending to fresh lows at 2016.25. Overnight action's new info... Sunday night's open gapped down to 2014.00 and slide further to 2001.50. Flat-to-higher ignored China devaluing the Yuan again, soon firming back up to the opening print. And then through it, overlapping Friday afternoon's cash session low by 2 points. Firming through Europe's opens touched 2022.50 and has reversed down since then, now testing 2005.00 . If, then... Thursday night's 1999.00 limit-down halt requires a retest, probably down to 1993.50, with further potential down to 1980.00. There's not much time available to isolate the fresh lows by satisfying the retest and already recovering into positive territory pre-open. Not isolating fresh lows would be trickier to form a trading low this morning, with a negative close today confirming a trend change. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2004.50 would be likely also to exceed the 2008.00 bias-down target at 10:15, renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open under 2013.25 would be likely at least to trigger the 2018.75 bias-down signal.

Straight down since the open, but targets met. Coming within 1 point of Thursday night's 1999.00 limit-down had bounced to greet the open at 2011.00. Price action trended almost straight down from there. The requirement to retest 1999.00 was fulfilled. Its influence was modest, triggering a bounce that attacked 2004.00. That didn't last, and another downleg fell to 1991.25. Retesting 1999.00 down to 1993.50 was fulfilled. The question is whether that's enough for another bounce. Another bounce would be relatively substantial at this stage. The 1993.50 target was met just after violating a bounce limit. And before forming a new distribution pattern, let alone triggering it. This pessimism often proves optimistic -- which can be bullish from a contrarian perspective. Only 1-minute RSI is avoiding oversold territory, as the drop extends down to 1988.50. There is still room for noise down to 1980.00. But back above 1999.00 at this stage could trigger a much larger rally than most would have expected today.  

MON afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2006.25 1996.50 ...would target  2013.00  2003.50 Bias-down: under  1995.50 1986.00 ...would target 1989.75  1980.00 Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Consolidating under prior lows. Room down to 1980.00 doesn't have to be touched, let alone probed. In fact, this morning's drop extended down to 1981.50 before bouncing to 1997.00. The noon hour dipped momentarily to 1988.50, but essentially ranged choppily sideways. A fresh high would target 2003.75, although that would be "no-bias trending" if not delayed. A break lower has a little more room, to the 1986.50 bias-down signal, would avoid no-bias trending.

Monday morning's 1981.50 low was finally touched after the 3:10-3:20 window had lapsed. No fresh low during either the noon hour or afternoon, but the morning low's obligatory support produced a reaction up to 1994.50. Suspicious. That was still under the afternoon's high, which had held the bias-up signal. In fact, a last-half hour 13-point surge up to 1994.50 was reversed 10 points down to 1983.50 through the futures close. Sellers gained no traction for their efforts Monday. So, extending down without delay would require gapping down Tuesday. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

TUE morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2007.75  1997.25 ...would target  2013.00  2003.50 Bias-down: under  1994.25 1984.75 ...would target  1986.00  1976.50 Signal status: waiting for trigger FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.