Day Trading Trading Signals - 06-27-2017

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

NEW DAILY SCHEDULE First, watch the pre-open Tour recording HERE <<== Then, meet in the chaRTroom here by 9:15 ET for updates and Q&A

Through the prior close... Monday's gap up above prior highs to 2442.25 extended higher through the open to 2447.50. Two potential reversal setups were neutralized -- One-way relentless overnight trending, and greeting the new week with extreme sentiment. None of which mattered this time. This setup usually extends higher through the morning and prints its session high during the afternoon. But the first hour had reversed to attack the open, and the bias environment soon plunged to 2434.00. The 2434.50-2435.50 gap back to Friday's close provided support for a bounce to 2441.50 through the noon hour. The balance of the session retraced the bounce back down to 2435.25. Overnight action's new info... A relatively shallow 3-point bounce had been retraced before starting to probe lower into Europe's opens. Its extension down to 2430.00 was retraced up to 2436.00. But only briefly, as another dip is probing back under yesterday's low down to 2432.00. If, then... Monday's slide originated after the open, and only filled the gap back down to Friday's close. However substantial it became, its opening context wasn't rejected. That can still be done by the proxy of maintaining a gap down under a relevant low -- like 2430.50, whose support was thoroughly chipped away last week. Retesting it overnight has so far reacted up. Extending higher to open above the earlier 2437.25 overnight high could isolate sellers and resume the rally. That might be the only way to avoid extending down to 2415.00 and potentially 2399.00. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2431.00 would be likely to trigger the 2433.00 bias-down signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2435.00 would be unlikely to trigger bias-down. Phonetic dictation... good morning welcome it is Tuesday it's time for Tuesday's Morning Market to her Tuesday's morning Moore Couture and as promise that yesterday's open because of the nature of yesterday's open we were likely to have a pretty interesting day we had some pretty significant swings interesting also and the surprise of what the opening Gap up above the prior sessions highs prior session prior sessions highs despite the prior session Friday having failed to gain traction to the upside yesterday's open did it created an anchor but that didn't stop reversing down intraday that contact says that the sell-off is going to be retraced that context could have been invalidated by closing under some relevant level as soon as the Gap back to Fridays close was filled that became a relevant level and we didn't close under it the bounce was largely retraced not entirely into the cash session close but it wasn't broken through the clothes that too can be made up for compensated for by proxy so having held the test the relevant low the test the filling the Gap back to Fridays close gapping Down Under the next relevant low in this case you can see 2431 here late Friday that's so late it's really discounted from its significance from its predictive value you can see lower lows not just intraday there's an overnight test as well 2428 but really all of that was testing and attacking for several days 3 days the Gap back to the prior Bright Eyes Closed 24 3050 that's really are big Line in the Sand so if 2430 50 is broken through the open them by proxy it will be a significant as if the dip that is just as close and not held the mornings low it's too late to just break them to the mornings low and have the same significance and consequence having failed to hold it through yesterday's clothes it healthy as close so now there is a extra lower-level to compensate for that and that's essentially 24 3050 the Gap back to the prior Fridays close Gap under that maintain the Gap under that extend the Gap under that same rules as yesterday that extend you can see what normally would happen and ejectors below out of the way we would just know that it's in the context of being temporary now there's another another bullish template hear that just looks at the overnight Slide the overnight slide came amid some high-profile news items Google gets hit with a pretty big pretty big fine Vons or up or bonds or down yielder up pretty big but we'll look at that in a moment Euro will see this to look through the through the different other markets but that's a pretty big break it's a lot of marketing Royal now the big Royal roiled not really old overnight and maybe that piques into the open and that gives the overnight and opportunity to be rejected that's the bullish template is for having balanced initially last night creating a high before midnight and then resuming the declined yesterday is prevailing decline if that overnight low can be rejected by opening back above the overnight hi back over the 37375 area which is a couple hours to get done and not a whole lot of room to recover to get it done but not a very volatile overnight session to base it on still get out of the open above 3737 25 then we can consider or start to consider the overnight decline having been rejected and the esa morning anchor being an attraction and back up to yesterday's high which really shouldn't be protected unless we're heading to new highs 2454 ok and we'll talk at the time last week yesterday week break out yesterday or I'm sorry Friday no confirmation yesterday that doesn't prevent extending higher trying to break out again today which would set up a and that's the pound which would set up an interesting pattern and then the Aussie which does have a confirmed break out here to the downside I'll be at trying to reject it by gapping up Friday and extending higher yesterday extending you in a higher today he is leaving unfinished business below so other than to retest the prior hi to form a more substantial top knot bullish on the Aussie silver free open by that fat finger alleged fat finger trade fulfilled its 1625 1630 objective that entire fat finger trade is Ben retraced now with the help of overnight action gold meanwhile stop short of my 12:35 Target and has almost retraced the entire day of its alleged fed finger trade as well long bond is dipping not yesterday was a break out yesterday that's a break out to resistance which we can call this a pullback limit yesterday's pull back low bun 5630 basically but it's only on a closing basis so it can be probed today and it is being probed today this is every bit of significant if not more significant of a pullback limit 156 20 so long as 15620 holds his support it's been proved it today but so long as it holds the support having been tested recover back above 156 2628 and we'll look for another higher high but that break out yesterday has not been confirmed it has not produced a second consecutive higher close it'll leave a gap outstanding it'll leave a gap outstanding that would undermine the ability to reverse down to reverse and trim down so I'm a little surprised pretty surprised if gapping down today we're to extend down and if Gabby down today extended down if that actually reverse the trend down without ultimately recovering to retest yesterday's clothes or higher and it wouldn't be surprising if this overnight action reaction to drag his comments to the euro wouldn't be surprising to the degree that says even pattern too slow with still needs this low range it still need some backing and filling natural gas extending yesterday's rally will be rolling coverage forward on natural gas alright any questions let me know see you in the chart room before the open good luck today.

Still holding prior lows. Last week's last three sessions had chipped away repeatedly at the gap back to the prior Friday's 2430.50 close. Once a new relative high was visited, i.e. yesterday's open, there was no bullish reason ever to revisit 2430.50. Not for backing-and-filling, not for trapping shorts . refueling buyers, and not to resolve some unfinished business. Yet, 2430.50 is trying to hold again. Testing it overnight could have been isolated by opening above yesterday's lows, and testing it at the open could have been isolated, too. Neither test was isolated, and the 2433.00 bias-down signal has triggered late. But a bounce is now filling the gap back up to yesterday's 2436.25 cash session close. Doing that earlier, and now repeating its test would be bullish. This being the gap's first test, resolving down remains possible. But not required. Exiting the bias environment above its 2441.00 bias-up signal would invalidate the bias-down and target new highs. Otherwise, back under 2433.75 would resume the decline.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2442.25 2439.25 ...would target  2448.00  2445.00 Bias-down: under  2436.00  2433.00 ...would target 2429.00  2426.00 Signal status: BIAS-DOWN FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Prior lows melt away. So long as this morning's bounce didn't exit the bias environment above its 2441.00 bias-up signal, it would be only a temporary delay. And its 2426.00 bias-down target would be "unfinished business below." The 2433.00 bias-down signal had triggered, and it wasn't invalidated.

I don't know what catalyst accounts for there still being any semblance of support at 2430.50, after having chipped away thoroughly at it last week. Regardless, the template indicated that returning to it would break sharply through it. That didn't happen at the open, but it has happened this afternoon.

Testing fresh lows at the afternoon's 1:20 bias timing window soon collapsed to 2421.00. Oversold RSIs at the low require at least its retest after bouncing. Which its reaction is now doing, back up to attack 2426.00. A recovery today is unlikely under any circumstances, although it seems this afternoon's drop is a reaction to headlines about delaying the Senate healthcare plan procedural vote. Not bottoming on the low's retest would next be attracted down to 2415.50 and lower, potentially to 2399.00.

One piece of "unfinished business above" remains outstanding at 2454.00. It was a bias-up target that triggered that afternoon. It's likely to be retested soon after the current pullback ends. But there's no requirement for the pullback to end. Meanwhile, Tuesday's plunge down to 2416.50 only touched a prior low. That's optimistically short of what constitutes an optimal test, let alone thorough. Especially when the next lower objective is only 1 points lower, or 2 points when including its room for noise that is likely to be tested. There's some potential for "lower prior highs" at 2412.00 to formulate a bottom, which would launch a retest of the highs. Otherwise, probing any lower would next target 2399.00. Tuesday afternoon's bias environment high printed very early at 2431.50. A lower high printed at 2427.50 as the bias environment began lapsing. Having trended down into the close, just recovering one prior high at Wednesday's open could form a "session-long rally." Optimally, the setup would gap up above the entire bias environment. Likely, the decline persists. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2425.50 2422.50 ...would target  2431.25 2428.50 Bias-down: under  2417.50 2414.75 ...would target  2412.00  2409.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.