Day Trading Trading Signals - 07-01-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Gapping up Tuesday was reversed down immediately. The overnight rally, to 2069.00 was retraced into the noon hour, piercing Monday''s 2047.50 low. The afternoon''s no-bias rally to 2066.00 retraced to 2062.00 as was required, and even deeper down to 2052.50 by the cash session close. Spiking down into the futures close touched 2049.75. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the high.

Overnight action''s new info...
Similar to Tuesday night, firming overnight evolved into a rally. A consolidation up to 2066.00 got welcome news from reports that Greece has offered significant concessions, triggering a surge to test and retest 2077.25. That has been retraced to attack 2069.00, amid reports that Germany isn''t talking while Greece''s referendum remains scheduled, and ahead of a live television address by Greece''s Prime Minister.

If, then...
The cycles of rally and retracement were becoming shorter and shallower, compressing price to the point of almost literally exploding in one direction or the other. Breaking higher first is not bullish for the bigger picture. It leaves "unfinished business below" that will require eventual retest, while neutralizing the overbought RSIs'' attraction above that otherwise would suggest sellers were weak-handed. Nevertheless for the near-term, gapping up above Tuesday afternoon''s high could form a "session-long rally" setup. Could. But not maintaining the gap up would be as bearish as the setup could have been bearish, probably reversing to new lows intraday.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45above 2068.75-2070.00 would be likely also to exceed the 2065.75 bias-up target through 10:15, which would renew the bias-up signal. Exiting the open under 2062.00 would be unlikely to exceed the bias-up target through 10:15. Exiting the open under 2059.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2060.50 bias-up signal at 10:15, probably putting into play an offsetting test of the 2050.75 bias-down signal.

Gap up maintained, but not yet extended.

Having trended down into yesterday''s close, maintaining the gap up above yesterday afternoon''s 2066.00 high has formed a "session-long rally." Only one intraday timing window should fail to probe its prior timing window''s high.

That doesn''t prevent dipping down, but dipping from a position of strength is likely to be recovered. That premise usually isn''t put to the test. Today is a little different with the higher-profile events surrounding Greece.

In fact, Greece PM Tspiras just thew cold water on calls to cancel this weekend''s referendum, triggering an 8-point plunge that pierced 2066.00 by 3 ticks. The premise hasn''t passed the test -- bouncing initially up to 2070.25 has reacted back down to fresh lows at 2063.50.

Until probing above the bias timing window''s 2074.50 high, exiting the bias environment at 11:30 under the 2067.75 bias timing window''s low would invert the session-long rally setup.

Usually during a session-long rally, the noon hour is the one timing window not to probe a prior timing window''s high. If it is this morning''s bias environment is an exception, then the door to inverting the setup would swing open wider

Back above 2068.25-2069.00 would again suggest the press conference''s threats have been absorbed. Back under 2065.75 would suggest the session-long rally is inverting down.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2080.75
2072.50
...would target 2087.25
2079.00
Bias-down: under 2070.25
2062.00
...would target 2063.00
2054.75
Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
The reaction down continued Wednesday to fulfill the 1.1065 target. The next lower objective is a retest of Sunday night''s low in the 1.100 area. Closing back above 1.1110 would suggest the pullback has ended.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Remaining under pressure Wednesday morning only attacked Tuesday''s low, but the 1158.50 target remains intact.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Whether or not Tuesday''s breakout low was confirmed by a lower close Wednesday, holding above Tuesday''s intraday low made the confirmation less than optimal.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
An overnight plunge to test 148-20 confirmed Monday''s gap up had gained no traction while a fresh low remained likely before any other resolution would be credible. This pattern tends to extend by gapping, making an overnight slide likely.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Gapping down Wednesday to the 58.70 sell signal trended down sharply into the afternoon to fresh lows at 56.85 support. Extending deeper would likely test 55.35, but closing back above 57.75 would signal that the break would not extend and could still launch a sudden reaction up.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Tuesday''s recovery to 2.83 resistance was probed momentarily by 1 penny at Wednesday''s open, but only to reverse down to probe 1 penny under 2.77 support. The extended range isn''t narrowing, so its first breakout would still be credible for extending intraday in that direction.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2082.25
2074.00
...would target 2087.00
2079.00
Bias-down: under 2070.25
2062.25
...would target 2063.25
2055.00
Signal status: LATE NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.