Day Trading Trading Signals - 07-08-2015

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...

An amazing swing Tuesday overcame Monday night''s 17-point rally to 2078.00. Dropping 43 points from there into the morning''s 2035.00 bias environment low had already reflected an extraordinary paradigm shift. Then another shift rallied 41 points into the close. The latter sponsorship was more influential, producing its move entirely intraday. No unfinished business was left outstanding below, but buyers didn''t gain traction for the effort, and the recovery stopped short of closing above a relevant level.

Overnight action''s new info...
The primary thrust of my review of Tuesday afternoon''s recovery was that despite it being inspirational, not closing above a relevant high was cautionary. Expending so much energy without gaining traction for the effort is always likelier to retrace. In fact, Globex began slipping at the open, and extended the drop to 31 points at 2042.25 through Europe''s opens. That has been retraced back up through the 2051.00 level that had greeted Europe''s opens, to now attack 2063.75.

If, then...
Not gaining traction for expended energy is always vulnerable to retracement. Yesterday afternoon''s rally didn''t extend above relevant levels at relevant times. Consequently, it has fallen back to the last low before noon yesterday, literally retracing all of yesterday afternoon''s recovery. So, now the question is whether this drop will gain traction for its effort. Gapping down under yesterday''s 2053.75 bias environment low could form a "session-long decline," but the current bounce is probing back above that level -- to the resistance of this morning''s 2062.50 bias-down target. Unless the open were gapping up into positive territory, this morning''s most bullish scenario may be only to range back to unchanged. Gapping down too deeply could say goodbye to the past week''s range.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2058.25 would be likely also to exceed the 2062.50 bias-down target through 10:15 to renew the bias-down signal. Exiting the open back above 2063.25 would be likely to hold above the bias-down target to avoid renewing the bias-down signal. Exiting the open back above 2071.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 2068.00 bias-down signal.

Pre-open bounce attracts mostly sellers.

This morning''s 2062.50 bias-down target was attacked to within 3 ticks by an opening surge from 2055.00. That proved to be only a range, centered around the 2058.25 preliminary level. A break lower has extended down 10 points to 2048.50.

And that was before 10:15. Producing a fresh low after that down to 2047.25 at least makes reversing up more difficult. Currently, a buy signal at 2053.50 is being probed by 3 points, targeting 2057.75 and potentially 2062.50.

Back under 2052.75 would signal that another bounce had failed, essentially marginalizing sellers for the day.

WED afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2062.25
2054.25
...would target 2068.00
2060.00
Bias-down: under 2049.25
2041.25
...would target 2042.00
2034.00
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
Tuesday''s post-close surge above the fresh low''s 1.1000 bounce limit was extended Wednesday to attack the prior low''s 1.1120 bounce limit. Tuesday''s breakout wasn''t confirmed, but its session should still be tested before considering whether a durable rally leg were underway.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
A slightly lower low Tuesday night attacking 1146.00 was recovered Wednesday morning to the 1163.00 buy signal. Any early strength Thursday would be credible for extending higher intraday.

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Flat-to-higher ranging Wednesday avoided confirming Tuesday''s breakout, making any early surging likely to extend higher intraday.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
Wednesday didn''t gap down at all, let enough to form an Island out of Tuesday''s pattern. At least an eventual third higher close is required, and any interim pullback is likely to be recovered.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Holding Tuesday''s low is critical to maintaining the recent decline as only a temporary correction. Firming ahead of Wednesday''s session helped to absorb intraday selling pressures, avoiding fresh a low. The EIA report had little if any impact.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Surging through Wednesday''s open peaked upon attacking 2.77 and reversed down to pierce Tuesday''s 2.68 low. Thursday''s EIA report is being not being greeted from a position of weakness. Closing back above 2.77 is needed to suggest any negative knee-jerk reaction down was recovered.

THU morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2055.00
2047.00
...would target 2060.25
2052.25
Bias-down: under 2042.25
2034.25
...would target 2036.50
2028.50
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.