Proper context to start the day with a solid win, and make all the difference.

DAILY SCHEDULE Watch the pre-open Tour recording* HERE <<== *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. chaRTroom** is now open... Pre-open update is at 9:15 ET **This is NOT the direct chaRTroom link

Through the prior close... (summary of last Market Wrap) Wednesday's open was greeted at the choppy 3126.00-3152.00 overnight range's mid-point, and quickly rallied up to 3162.25. Meeting the bias-up target without renewing it, and without yet exceeding the pre-10:15 high, was reversed sharply to test the morning's bias-down signal down to 3126.00. Its support launched a recovery through the noon hour back up to the morning's premature broken 3148.50 bias-up signal as required. The final hour rallied back up to the morning's high to 3164.00. Overnight action's new info... (nearby chart is last intraday session and Globex) The Globex action is better defined as a lack of action. At least, not after Wednesday's final hour rally extended without delay through the Globex open up to 3170.00. But it soon began reversing down, attacking 3152.00 before Europe's opens. Its reaction only firmed back into the range, and only to range narrowly around unchanged at 3160.50-3163.50, as volatility evaporates. If, then... (notes to accompany the Tour recording) Unfinished business left outstanding at yesterday morning 3126.00 low refers to the simultaneously oversold 1-minute and 3-minute RSIs that accompanied it. Its eventual retest is required, but its attraction can be ignored by breaking free from its orbit through a relevant timing window. Opening above yesterday's range would suggest that stronger-handed buyers are injecting that momentum, but exiting the open within yesterday's range would offer that downside reward to sellers for gaining traction. And not holding a retest of Wednesday's low would next target 3111.00. We might find that overnight ranging has only paused yesterday's final hour rally, and resuming it would next target Tuesday's unfinished business at 3177.00. Meanwhile, that prior string of 5 consecutive higher closes has now developed into 4 consecutive overlapping sessions, likely to form either a top or a base, and still likelier to form the latter on the way back up to new recovery highs. Meanwhile, potentially bearish Globex-flip and Isolation setups may be forming. First Trade... (9:45 preliminary indications for the 10:15 Bias parameters)

Exiting the open under 3160.25 would be unlikely to trigger the 3166.75 bias-up signal. Exiting the open above 3157.50 would be unlikely to trigger the 3152.00 bias-down signal.

Sellers find their opening. The least attractive resolution to ranging sideways overnight is no resolution. Persisting within the range through the opening 15 minutes and first hour often persists into the afternoon. Last night's range avoided breaking either way until its last possible minute. And has since compensated for the delay. A bearish Globex-flip setup formed from isolating the overnight probe above yesterday's highs, by exiting the opening 15 minutes back under the 3164.75 earlier Globex low. It expects the morning's bias environment to trend down. Its likely reward is any prior low -- including yesterday morning's 3126.00 low whose simultaneously oversold 1-min and 3-min RSIs require its retest. Yesterday's low already broke lower. The next lower objective would be 3111.00, and it was just probed down to 3109.50, accompanied by simultaneously oversold RSIs. This morning's 3152.00 bias-down signal was touched within 3 minutes of 10:15 to invoke the grace period through 10:30, and still being touched then to trigger noN-bias. There is no requirement to recover the broken bias signal. But the bias timing is still relevant, and recovering yesterday's 3126.00 low through 11:30-noon as the bias environment lapses would help to form a bottom. Under 3111.00 could extend if broken through a relevant timing window, too.

THU afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3143.00 3133.00 ...would target 3160.50 3150.50 Bias-down: under 3121.00 3111.00 ...would target 3103.00 3093.00 Signal status: BIAS-UP . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Potential for massive intraday swing. As if the intraday swing so far wasn't already massive. The very last-minute break more than compensated for holding its 3152.00 bias-down signal through the very last possible minute. Its full potential was met down to my lowest calculable objective at 3111.00, which was only overlapped while attacking 3105.00.

The open's bearish Globex-flip setup was massively successful. The current recovery attempt has retraced 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} back up to yesterday's close.

At noon I noted that if (IF) sellers were done, then today's close could have reversed well into positive territory. There is such a consequence to fulfilling so much downside, so quickly, without any downside momentum or distribution. Also, the bigger picture's 4-day range won't tolerate closing under yesterday's low, not if (IF) it intends to resolve up. Rallying since the 11:30 morning bias environment exit until the 1:30 afternoon bias environment entry just attacked 3142.00. This triggers the 3133.00 bias-up signal targeting 3150.50, which would be confirmed by any fresh afternoon high. So, with apologies to Kipling, IF fresh highs confirm, then my only sell signals will require deeper pullbacks or distributive patterns to trigger. And if today's session intends to turn positive, then the recovery should start steepening before positive territory is even threatened. Back under 3125.25-3127.25 would instead start signaling at least a retest of the low.

Ranging sideways overnight inclueded a couple of probes above Wednesday's intraday highs up to 3171.00. Shallow probes, but still qualifying probes. Which means nothing in itself, unless Thursday's opening 15 minutes is exited back under the 3164.75 earlier Globex low. Which it was, triggering a bearish Globex-flip. The setup's context suggests the morning would trend down. Not necessarily as steeply as Thursday morning, which collapsed down to 3105.00. Having satisfied all available downside objectives to 3111.00, a rally back up to 3154.50 into the final hour ended at 3141.00-3143.00. The intraday rally wasn't arbitrary. It retraced the room for noise above the morning drop's 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement, and ended at the 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} retracement itself -- no lower, which would have started undermining the intraday recovery's momentum. The rally began as the morning bias environment began lapsing at 11:30, and ended during the 3:10-3:20 proxy window -- multiple consecutive timing windows. The afternoon 3133.00 bias-up signal triggered and met its 3150.50 target. Its sponsorship gained traction for the effort, exiting the afternoon bias environment above the noon hour high and entering the final hour higher. So, despite closing Thursday in negative territory, the burden of proof is on sellers. Buyers must still extend the rally, without the luxury of any unfinished business outstanding to attract price higher. But gapping up through Wednesday's 3167.50 open could offer early warning that Thursday afternoon's upside traction intends to control at least the morning. Thursday afternoon had been poised to recover positive territory already. This was -- and continues to be -- a likely consequence for suddenly collapsing from a range, fulfilling so many downside objectives, all during one timing window. Meanwhile, the 4-day now 5-day sideways range was maintained, despite having thrown so much selling pressure at its lower-end. Resolving down would be a little surprising, but not as surprising not have begun resolving either way into the weekend. See details and other markets coverage in the post-market Wrap recording* here. *Manually open Adobe Connect (install on Windows or Mac), then paste the recording's link there. Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here [NOT the direct link].

FRI morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 3160.50 3150.50 ...would target 3187.00 3177.00 Bias-down: under 3145.00 3135.00 ...would target 3135.25 3125.25 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-DOWN SIGNAL . BIAS VIDEOS... INTRO // EXAMPLE 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.