Expert Pre-Open Trading Strategy - 7:45 AM

Edit

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK(s)
o Win XP-Friendly entry
o non-xp friendly (ilinc)
(pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close...
Thursday''s gap up tested 2068.00, above Wednesday''s highs and almost 30 points above Wednesday''s close. The balance of the session trended down as the potential session-long rally setup inverted. A last-minute 10-point plunge to 2039.50 nearly filled the gap back to Wednesday''s close. Overbought RSIs were left outstanding at the high.

Overnight action''s new info...
Globex was greeted by favorable developments from Greece, essentially a proposal that seemed to have a chance. The open gapped up 4 points and spiked up another 10 points, and eventually firmed to attack 2062.00. The balance of the night has trended higher, and just touched 2068.50 momentarily.

If, then...
Yesterday''s was well within proximity to Tuesday''s 2035.00 low, which requires a retest. An overnight setup would have made that vulnerable to recovering before the open. That would have greeted the post-close news from a stronger position. Not that its immediate and overnight reactions would have been bigger. But is it only from being oversold, or is it actually durable past this morning? As we saw yesterday, maintaining the reaction above relevant levels through relevant timing windows will signal whether the reaction is extending, or melting away. This being a Friday, the open and the bias windows will be very consequential. As with all single-minded overnight trending, the opening 15 minutes of volatility can answer whether or not new sponsorship has been attracted.

First Trade...
Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2065.75 would start to suggest the overnight rally had attracted intraday sponsorship. Exiting the open under 2059.25 would suggest not, and back under 2057.25 would start to signal that sellers were attracted.


Market Opening Thoughts - 11:17 AM

Edit

Open''s slide gained no traction.

The open''s blip-up touched 2069.75 resistance and reacted back down to the 2065.50 preliminary indication. Still overlapping it at 9:45 prevented identifying whether new buying sponsorship was being attracted. That didn''t prevent probing lower since then to to 2059.50.

But it did suggest that probing lower would be the temporary. At least one early element suggests that, too -- the first reaction down was retraced by only 38.2{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} before triggering the 2065.50 sell signal. Reversing down from a 61.8{faed0d6dca04cec8b6b7985efddb9b0651107a3aebb05f69f0166038b8c951f6} bounce would have required strong-handed sellers.

Indications of impatient sellers means that buyers are patient. At least, relatively patient. In fact,the reaction up from 2059.50 is fulfilling expectations for being sudden, steep and substantial, already testing 2067.50.

Exiting the bias environment above 2068.00 could extend higher this afternoon to test 2072.50 and 2076.00. But that''s not yet required. Little is, until there''s more visibility on acceptance of the latest Greece bailout proposal,


Tonight's Day Trading Predictions - 12:02 PM

Edit
FRI afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2080.25
2073.25
...would target 2085.25
2078.25
Bias-down: under 2070.00
2063.00
...would target 25064.50
2057.50
Signal status: NO-BIAS FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Daily Spot.. Greek gifts. - 2:28 PM

Edit

A daily summary of high-profile members of several complexes... View a more detailed discussion of each chart at the end of today''s Market Wrap.

Eurodollar Sep Contract (EC, ETF: (FXE, UUP))
A funny thing happened on the way to filling the gap back to Tuesday''s 1.0935 opening gap. The interim test of the 1.1200 bounce limit had reacted down Thursday only to test 1.1000 support. The post-close Greece news triggered a gap up above the interim highs to test 1.1325 before drifting back down Friday to attack 1.1200 as support. Back under 1.1200 makes 1.0935''s test likelier next., but there is otherwise no active signal.

Gold Aug Contract (GC, ETF: (GLD))
Relatively narrow ranging only narrowed Friday, hovering just under the 1163.00 buy signal with no new information..

Silver Sep Contract (SI, ETF: (SLV))
Probing above 15.35-15.45 avoided the shallow dip needed to stretch the rubber band so it could snap back up and launch a rally. Without snapping back up from a blip-down, there is room to at least 15.85 before even beginning to suggest momentum is reversing up.

30-year Treasury Sep Contract (US, ETF: (TLT))
The Greece news after Thursday''s close gave the intraday drop to 150-16 a steroid injection that extended it down sharply. The week-old gap back to 149-07 was filled, and held. Back above 150-24 would signal momentum reversing back up.

Crude Oil Aug Contract (CL, ETF: (USO, USL) (UWTI-long, DWTI-short))
Narrow ranging persisted for the fourth consecutive session, still not extending the decline, but also not yet reversing it back above 54.30.

Natural Gas Aug Contract (NG, ETF: (UNG, UNL))
Thursday''s "pivotal reversal" extended higher immediately to gap up Friday, and to extend higher intraday, but still overlapping 2.77 resistance into the close..


Tomorrow's Day Trading Plan - 5:07 PM

Edit
MON morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above 2080.50
2073.50
...would target 2085.50
2078.50
Bias-down: under 2071.25
2064.25
...would target 2065.00
2058.00
Signal status: BIAS-UP, BIAS-UP TARGET EXCEEDED FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target.
2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment''s range.
-- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias.
3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal.
-- "Late" signals don''t require testing the opposite bias signal, but it''s still likely.
4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.