Day Trading Trading Signals - 07-26-2016

Proper context can start the day with a solid win and make all the difference.

CHARTROOM LINK (pre-open Market Tour begins at 8:55 ET)

Through the prior close... The week began by falling back into the same range as last Tuesday's horrible session. The template behaved the same way this week, with Its quicksand keeping price attracted to 2156.00-2158.00 for much of the day. Also similar was a last-minute rally up to 2163.50 that retraced more of the open's drop from 2166.00-2168.00. Overnight action's new info... A pullback to 2158.50 was recovered to a fresh high at 2165.00. Reacting down through Europe's opens has extended back to the 2158.50 low. Price is still consolidating under unchanged levels. If, then... There is now no bullish reason to revisit Monday's 2156.00-2158.00 lows. Dipping more than just momentarily would likely gain sponsorship and traction to break under last week's lows on the way to a much deeper level. Meanwhile, almost any opening strength Tuesday should be likely to probe fresh intraday highs, retesting Sunday night's highs up to 2171.25  and 2175.50. First Trade... [Click here to view the Bias parameters] Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2161.00 would be unlikely to trigger the 2166.00 bias-up signal at 10:15. Exiting the open above 2168.00 would be likely to trigger bias-up. Exiting the open at 9:45 under 2155.50 would be likely to trigger the 2157.75 bias-down signal at 10:15.

Opening surge only threatens bias-up. "Unleashing the pent-up buying pressure at the open should surge through the 2165.00 overnight highs if this morning intends to recover." That summarized what I had noted during the pre-open Tour, that the bullish template would surge quickly. A post-open dip to 2162.75 and a break above 2164.75 each helped to confirm momentum was extending higher. Ultimately, 2168.00 was touched. The open did exactly that, and then it didn't. Bias-up didn't trigger, despite probing 2 points above its 2166.00 signal. Instead, this is a no-bias environment. And having held a test of the 2157.75 bias-up signal, an offsetting test of the bias-down signal is in-play. No-bias trending would probe above the bias-up signal during a no-bias environment, and then fail. The 2171.25 and 2175.50 attractions above don't require testing, but they're nearby. Back above 2166.50 would be credible for no-bias trending to probe fresh highs. Before failing. Meanwhile, an offsetting test of the 2158.00 bias-down signal is in-play. Its test is likely underway back under 2164.25 (being tested now). Overbought RSIs at the high don't require a retest, having developed during the open, regardless of their retest being likely at some point.

TUE afternoon signal (triggered at 1:20 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2167.25 2161.75 ...would target  2172.50  2166.75 Bias-down: under  2159.00  2153.25 ...would target  2153.50  2147.75 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 1:20, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 1:20 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 1:20 would invoke a grace period through 1:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 1:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.

Morning's plunge has no direct cause. This morning;s 2166.00 bias-up signal did not trigger. Not for lack of trying, having been probed by 2 points. But holding its test put into play an offsetting test of the 2155.75 bias-down signal. Invalidating the no bias at 10:30 wouldn't have surprised me, with upside attractions being so near. But the market knows better. A sell signal triggered under 2164.25, the bottom dropped out, and a 30-minute 10-point plunge was suddenly probing 2 points under yesterday's low down to 2153.75. The noon hour retraced the entire plunge back up to 2164.00. But only retraced it. It wasn't reversed or rejected. So, no-bias has triggered, despite probing 2 points above the 2161.75 bias-up signal. Again. This afternoon's 2153.25 bias-down signal doesn't require being tested. But it probably will be tested, while retesting this morning's 2153.75 low. That's required because it was accompanied by simultaneously oversold 1-mijnute and 3-minute RSIs. This morning's brief test of 2156.00-2158.00 could have been dismissed. It happened during a no-bias environment and it was recovered by noon. This afternoon's test of 2156.00-2158.00 could also be dismissed for similar reasons. But the burden of proof is on there being a forcible recovery coming out of the bias environment.

One problem for a recovery is the lack of a scapegoat for this morning's plunge. There are plenty of candidates, but no specific catalyst. Even the worst news item can be discounted -- however deeply, and forever how long it might take -- and then the market can get back to business.

That's difficult when lacking a scapegoat. So, be careful with longs until a prior high is recovered.

The open's 5-point surge to 2168.00 had reacted down 4 points before the morning's 10-point plunge to 2154.00. Bouncing into the noon hour retraced the plunge, but only the plunge, before an afternoon drop to 2156.00. That was also recovered to 2164.00. Only to 2164.00. Even that reacted down into the close, which was fluctuating around unchanged. Tuesday ends without momentum, and without traction, despite its 14-point range -- which one leg traveled in 90 minutes. The proximity to fresh highs is further than the prior two closes. Only a little, after plenty of selling pressure had tried breaking lower, with plenty of time to get it done. I can't get fresh highs (2171.25, 2175.50) off my radar, not without gapping down under Tuesday afternoon's 2156.00 low, which isn't likely ahead of Wednesday's FOMC policy statement. Details and other markets coverage are discussed in the post-market Wrap recording here.

Monitor overnight Globex trading in the chaRTroom here.

WED morning signal (triggered at 10:15 ET) SPX ES Bias-up: above  2174.75 2169.00 ...would target  2181.25  2175.50 Bias-down: under  2163.75  2158.00 ...would target 2158.25  2152.50 Signal status: NO-BIAS, TESTED BIAS-UP SIGNAL FAQ INTRO VIDEOS #1 and #2 1. At 10:15, trading above the bias-up signal or under the bias-down signal would put into play a test of its bias-up or bias-down target. 2. Not triggering either bias signal at 10:15 would be "no-bias," and the bias signals should define the bias environment's range. -- A test of the opposite bias signal would be targeted if one bias signal was tested before triggering no-bias. 3. Touching the bias signal within 3 minutes either way of 10:15 would invoke a grace period through 10:30 to trigger a late signal. -- "Late" signals don't require testing the opposite bias signal, but it's still likely. 4. Still testing the bias signal at 10:30 after invoking the grace period would trigger "noN-bias," with no bias influence.